Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Sixteen

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several key ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week sixteen. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (NC): There should not be a debate about the MVP of real or fake football this season.

2. Joe Burrow's (NC) Bengals defense makes it imperative for Joe Cool to have a big game to win.

3. Josh Allen (NC) is last in the top group of elite quarterbacks, and it’s not even close.

TWO-TIER DROP

4. Jayden Daniels (+1) might be the best rookie quarterback the NFL has seen in a long time.

5. Jalen Hurts (-1) Lots of fake football managers looking up how a player passes concussion protocol.

6. Jared Goff (NC) The undisputed best value this season at the QB position relative to ADP

7. Patrick Mahomes (NC) Old Hop-a-Long was doing his thing on the bum ankle

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8. Baker Mayfield (+1): Are the Browns having any regrets now? 

9. Sam Darnold (+2): Is it the system, or is he this good? 

10. Tua Tagliavoa's (-2) Offense has been more run-heavy this season 

11. Jordan Love (-1) They will need more out of Love to win this week, which is excellent news for fake football finalists 

12. Brock Purdy (+1) Down to their 5th RB on the depth chart means he needs to do more

13. Jameis Winston (-1) Should still be starting, but they know he isn’t their future 

14. Bo Nix (NC): Putting together an outstanding rookie campaign 

TWO-TIER DROP

15. Caleb Williams (+2) Any Bears fans that say this guy is a bust don’t deserve to see a great QB play 

16. Kyler Murray (NC): Stop making excuses for him; he is a rather average QB

17. Russel Wilson (-2) Showing what is good for real football at QB isn’t as good for fake football

18. Geno Smith (+1) A very inexpensive QB2 in Superflex leagues this season 

19. Justin Herbert (-1) Lack of a running game might make him a good start for the fake football Superbowl 

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20. Anthony Richardson (+2) Still is not developing his passing ability as much as I thought we would see in his second season.

21. Drake Maye (+2) Getting the job done as a rookie without a star WR

22. Aaron Rodgers (-2) The old guy is making Davante Adams a fake football star again

23. Kirk Cousins (-2) Lost his job to a promising rookie

24. CJ Stroud (+1) Shows that the Sophomore Slump can be a real thing

25. Matthew Stafford (-1) Age is starting to show 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 25: NONE

RB Position

1. De’Von Achane (NC) is An incredible playmaker getting the volume needed to be on top.

2. Josh Jacobs (+1): How did the fake football world let this guy go at RB10 this year? 

3. Derrick Henry (+1): Can you imagine the week he would have posted with 2 TDs? 

4. Bijan Robinson (-2) In contention for the RB1 in Dynasty format

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (NC) Should get a ton of volume for fake football Superbowl weekend

6. Saquon Barkley (NC): Can you imagine the career numbers he would have posted if he had started with the Eagles? 

TWO-TIER DROP

7. Kyren Williams (NC) Hasn’t lost volume to the rookie this season

8. Alvin Kamara (+2) Only injuries could slow him down this year

9. Joe Mixon (-1) Should be getting more TD opportunities, but the offense has struggled at times

10. Chase Brown (-1) Might have been the best draft value this season at RB36

TWO-TIER DROP

11. James Conner (-1) The offense looked lousy after he left with an injury last week

12. Breece Hall (-1) Needs to be on a more consistent, great offense to be rated higher.

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13. Ken Walker (NC) Always a mystery from week to week how much volume he might lose

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14. James Cook (+2) Positive TD regression from last season has moved him up this high.

15. David Montgomery (-1) Lions offense missed him last week

16. Aaron Jones (-1) Another one of the cagey old veterans who keeps getting it done

17. Chuba Hubbard (+1) The second-best value this season in the fake football draft at RB

18. Jonathon Taylor (+2) Got lots of practice holding onto the ball into the endzone last week

19. Bucky Irving's (-2) Game script sometimes limits his upside

TWO-TIER DROP

20. Richard White (-1) Game script sometimes helps his upside value

TWO-TIER DROP

21. Rhamondre Stevenson (+3): If that Pats offense can get more consistent, he could be Top 12

22. Brian Robinson (-1) Will his fumbles hurt his volume going forward? 

23. Tony Pollard (-1) Injury issues and a solid backup could hurt his value this week.

24. Najee Harris (-1) Some weeks, he looks like that back out of Bama; other weeks, he seems slow.

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25. D’Andre Swift (NC): It makes more sense why two teams have moved on from him already

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26. Travis Etienne (NC) Might not be the best RB on his team anymore

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27. Rico Dowdle (NC): Living proof that volume matters more than anything else in fake football

28. Tyrone Tracy (NC) Could be Top 12 in weekly value on a better offense

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29. Zach Charbonnet (NC): Many fake football managers fell for the coach's talk last week, but this might be the week he is a league winner.

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30. Kareem Hunt (+2) Surprisingly got more volume than his fellow Chiefs RB last week.

31. Isiah Pacheco (+2) Coach Andy is keeping him fresh for the actual playoffs

32. Tank Bigsby (+4) Should be getting more volume next season

33. Jerome Ford (+5): A solid week against a weak defense last week

34. Ray Davis (NC) Solid player stuck behind an even better RB on his team

TWO-TIER DROP

35. Raheem Mostert (NC): His Back Class keeps him in the top 40

36. Javonte Williams (+1) Occasional weeks where he looks like a solid RB2 in fake football

37. Ameer Abdullah (+5) Being trusted in the passing game yields good PPR points some weeks

38. Alexander Mattison (+1) Should continue to get enough volume to be a flex start

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39. Tyjae Spears (+6) Might get a chance to be a hero for fake football managers this week.

40. Jaylen Warren (+4) Appears to be the more complete RB on the Steelers

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 40: NONE 

WR Position

1. Ja’Marr Chase (NC) Team needs to throw more than the WR2 on this list

2. Justin Jefferson (NC) Starting to see the endzone at a high rate

TWO-TIER DROP

3. Amon Ra St Brown (NC) After the top two, there is the one and only Sun God

4. Cee Dee Lamb (NC) has an Injured shoulder limiting his snaps, but the man is a warrior for still playing

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5. Malik Nabers (NC) Best of an impressive rookie class of WRs

6. AJ Brown (NC) Doesn’t look like the same player with a QB not named Hurts

TWO-TIER DROP

7. Brian Thomas Jr (+5) Might be having the most impressive rookie season ever when you factor in the QB play.

8. Nico Collins (NC): A nasty injury to his impressive teammate could have allowed defenses to double-cover Collins.

9. Davante Adams (NC) Looks like old times since he moved back with his old QB.

10. Since Godwin went down, Mike Evans's (NC) Defense has been working hard to keep him out of games.

11. Puka Nacua (NC): The top WR on his team, without a doubt, now

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12. Cooper Kupp (5) Thad had two of his worst games in the fake football playoffs.

13. Terry McLaurin (NC), a fantastic rookie quarterback, has done wonders to make him scary again.

14. Tyreek Hill (NC) no longer looks like the top wide receiver in football or fake football.

15. DJ Moore (NC) Volume split puts a lid on his upside

TWO-TIER DROP

16. Garret Wilson (NC): The addition of his QB’s old favorite has killed his fake football value

17. DeVonta Smith (NC) Was drafted as a solid WR2 and has a solid WR2 production.

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18. Zay Flowers (+1) Team does so well running the ball it caps his upside

19. Keenan Allen (+1) Turning into a nice security blanket for a talented rookie QB

20. Tee Higgins (-2): Where will he star next season? 

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21. Jaxon Smith Njigba (+1) Could be a top-10 talent in fake football next season.

TWO-TIER DROP

22. Ladd McConkey (+1) His Fake Football weekly value rose nicely when they lost Dobbins at RB.

23. Drake London (+3): The QB change could do wonders for his weekly value 

24. Jakobi Meyers (-3) Doesn’t seem to be the main target for the team’s best QB

25. Jordan Addison (NC) When your teammate is All World, it is hard to be ranked much higher

26. Courtland Sutton (+1) Has that considerable play ability that can bring solid weeks on lower-volume 

27. DK Metcalf (+1) Starting to lose volume to JSN

28. Jerry Jeudy (-4) Hard to find a spot in your fake football lineup for him with DTR at QB

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29. Deebo Samuel (+5) Lack of a solid RB should help his value again this week

30. Jayden Reed (NC) is the Best playmaker on his team, but curious because his volume is so low

31. Calvin Ridley (+1) Switch of QBs to Rudolph a positive 

32. Jameson Williams (+6): That considerable play ability can reward you with a fantastic week

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33. George Pickens (-2) Fighting through injury concerns

34. Khalil Shakir (-5) is a Talented WR who seems to lack that Alpha Target guy mentality 

35. Josh Downs (+1) His skillset works better with AR at QB

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36. Jaylen Waddle (-3) His Fake Football Managers were relieved that he got scratched last week.

37. Adam Thielen (+3), a Cagey old veteran, is finding openings, and his improving QB is seeing him.m

38. Jauan Jennings (-3) Just doesn’t earn enough volume to be more than a flex play.

39. D’Andre Hopkins (-2): Are they keeping him fresh for the playoffs? 

40. Marvin Harrison Jr (-1) Hasn’t made a successful jump to the big leagues 

The top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 40 include Chris Olave at 42nd 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC) The undisputed top TE in fake football this season

2. Brock Bowers (NC) Will be setting rookie records while playing with a mish-mash at QB

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3. Travis Kelce (NC): Is Father Time finally catching up with him? 

4. Trey McBride (NC): It is Amazing to be TE4 in weekly value without receiving TDs.

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5. Mark Andrews (+1) Took him a while to get back to 100% but he is there now

6. David Njoku (-1) Still had a solid game without a solid QB

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7. John Smith (NC): It makes sense why Arthur Smith played him more than Pitts.

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8. TJ Hockenson (+1) Back Class, keeping him in the top 10 this season

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9. Sam LaPorta (+3) Starting to show that his rookie numbers were not a fluke 

10. Zach Ertz (NC): The old guy is fighting off serious injuries to keep playing

11. Tucker Kraft (-1) So many mouths to feed on the Packers limits his upside 

12. Cade Otton (+1:) Will he be back from injury this week? 

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13. Hunter Henry (+2) Has been a great plug and play off waivers

14. Cole Kmet (NC) Volume is lacking to get him any higher

15. Isiah Likely (+3) Still has his big weeks, even with Andrews healthy 

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16. Jake Ferguson (+4) is becoming a solid second option to Cee Dee again.

17. Pat Freiermuth (-1) It’s a complete mystery to me why he isn’t more consistent 

18. Dalton Kincaid (+1) Anyone this big, this athletic, with an outstanding QB, should be more of a force in Fake Football production at TE.

19. Kyle Pitts (-2): Whatever happened to the player we saw in his rookie season? 

20. Dalton Schultz (+3) Could have Top 12 value this week with Dell’s injury 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 20: NONE 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This is a live beta test, so remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in your fantasy football championship this week.