DMIC's Weekly Values Forecasting-Week 2 Edition

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week One.

Week one is in the books, and too often in Fantasy Football, we chase the points instead of the volume. Total Points is usually a deceiving statistic, and it is also sluggish. Everyone has access to this data, so there is no edge when managing your team. Points per Game is better, but it still is a sign of where we have been, not where we are going in Fantasy Football. Imagine if the GPS in your car only told us where we had been and didn’t guide us on the road ahead; we would be perpetually lost! In Fantasy Football, my Weekly Value and Consistency Ratings suggest a player’s future production. My weekly reports are more heavily weighted by this season’s data than the past, which gives you a quick correction for differences in expected volume. Just like when you handicap a horse race or prepare a weather forecast, if you understand the context of the data from the past and apply those critical changes for the future, you end up with a better prediction. Let’s look at the results after week one.

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Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football using a two-year data window. This consistency metric is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player.

Consistency Rating- Many say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game.

Scaled WV - The WVs are placed on a scale of 100 high to 0 Low. Allows for Clarity of Perceived Values

Rank - Current Numerical Rankings from Highest to Lowest

WV+C - Captures a Merger of a Player WVs and Consistency. See the Metric and Bar Graph for visualizing this metric.

QB Weekly Value

It was a rough week one for many of the top QBs, with Mac Jones almost scoring as many points as Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen combined! That is not a trend you expect to repeat itself all season. Patrick Mahomes was the 7th best QB in week one and sits on top of the Weekly Value Standings. Rookie Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love looked solid and landed at 8th and 12th, respectively.

RB Weekly Value

It can be more challenging to figure out volume at the RB position than any other. The NFL is changing, and with the 17-game schedule, Coaches are using more and more of a running back-by-committee strategy, affecting Fantasy Football results. Some Fantasy Managers expected a massive volume from the rookies in week one, but history tells us that sometimes rookies are slow to take over most of the volume. Kenneth Gainwell got the bulk of the work with the Eagles, and last year’s rookie sensation Tyler Allgeier saw an even split with rookie sensation Bijan Robinson. Otherwise, the cream rose to the top with Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey leading RBs that didn’t see work in week one retained their Weekly Value from last season without any adjustment until their future use can be properly diagnosed. (Jonathon Taylor, Rachad Penny, and Alvin Kamara, for example)

TE Weekly Value

The undisputed top two TEs in Fantasy Football both missed week one with minor injuries. We saw how thin the position is for the Fake Football Game, with only four players hitting the 10-point PPR level in week one. The return of an Offensive Coordinator to the New England Patriots meant a return to using the TE in the offense, and Mac Jones looked like a quality NFL QB in week one. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesecki combined for a “Kelce-like” total of 23.2 PPR points, with Henry leading all TEs in week one. Hayden Hurst was one of my dark horse picks at TE, grabbing him late in many Best Ball leagues, and he looked solid in week one. It was also great to see Donald Parham back healthy and producing, and he will be a substantial stash at TE all season. Of course, the guys that didn’t play did not see an adjustment in their Weekly Value ratings yet and lead the way at the position.

WR Weekly Value

Tyreek Hill lived up to his nickname of “The Freak” in week one, showing that in his 29 seasons, he has not lost a step and grabbed the top spot. Reliable veterans like Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs also had great week one totals, although since Jefferson didn’t get to the endzone, he finished 7th in PPR points. Calvin Ridley returned to action as the Top 10 Fantasy WR we expected. Rookie Zay Flowers had nine receptions, but it wasn’t the week's biggest surprise. Fellow rookie Puka Nacua posted a 10-reception day and topped 100 yards as he took over as the Alpha WR with Cooper Kupp sidelined. Brandon Aiyuk and Jakobi Meyers looked fantastic, although a scary incident with Meyers could have him miss a week or two. Weekly Value adjustments are conservative after just one week, so Nacua won’t make the Top 40 until he shows similar production for a few more weeks

Conclusion

Remember that Weekly Values do not predict how many points a player will score in any given week. It is more of a comparison between players. Still, it can also indicate the percentage drop in production if you make a trade to improve at one position while sacrificing a top player at another position. As the season progresses, that calculation will be shown weekly to help you make smarter trading decisions in your Fantasy Football leagues. Good luck in week two!