Predictions for 2024 Using MVP Index for Each Team

The new season is here this week and couldn’t come soon enough. Over the past few weeks, we have seen too many Fantasy Football analysts give you their Hot Takes, My Guy, League Winner, and every other overused cliché in Fake Football. Can someone please show a hint of originality? Today, I present my team-by-team forecasts using my MVP Index, showing how a player might turn out if I am wrong. In my weather forecasting days, if I told a client, they would see a 4-7 inch snowstorm that only provided part of the story. Now, if I told the client that IF I missed the forecast, they would see 7-12 inches of snow, they would prepare differently than if I said the alternate forecast was 1-3 inches of the white stuff. Let’s look at the forecast for key players this season and some future waiver wire targets to watch this year. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a shallow points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window, shown through my research to better indicate a player’s future potential for the next season. My forecasts will group players into likely ranges of outcomes rather than a fixed first through-last ranking. (More than one will be listed at WR14, for example) 

Arizona Cardinals 

QB: Kyler Murray: MVP24 103 (QB8) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: James Conner: MVP24 103 (RB14) with an equal chance of a higher or lower alternative forecast. 

RB: Trey Benson: MVP24 61 (RB27) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Marvin Harrison Jr: MVP24 94 (WR14) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

WR: Michael Wilson: MVP24 47 (WR38) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Zay Jones: MVP24 49 (WR37) with alternate forecast slightly higher after returning week six. 

TE: Trey McBride: MVP24 83 (TE3) with an equal chance of a higher or lower alternative forecast.    

Atlanta Falcons

QB: Kirk Cousins: MVP24 83 (QB11) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast. 

RB: Bijan Robinson MVP24 127 (RB3) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Tyler Allgeier MVP24 62 (RB24) with an alternate forecast of higher. 

WR: Drake London MVP24 62 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Darnell Mooney: MVP24 48 (WR37) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Kyle Pitts MVP24 42 (TE9) with alternate forecast higher. 

Baltimore Ravens

QB: Lamar Jackson: MVP24 98 (QB10) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

RB: Derrick Henry: MVP24 106 (RB8) with alternate forecast of lower. 

WR: Zay Flowers MVP24 90 (WR17) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Rashod Bateman MVP24 50 (WR36) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Mark Andrews MVP24 83 (TE2) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

TE: Isaiah Likely MVP24 38 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Buffalo Bills

QB: Josh Allen: MVP24 128 (QB1) with alternate forecast of slightly lower. 

RB: James Cook MVP24 64 (RB23) with an alternate higher forecast. 

RB: Ray Davis MVP24 64 (RB23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Khalil Shakir MVP24 65 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Keon Coleman MVP24 71 (WR26) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Curtis Samuel MVP24 53 (WR34) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Dalton Kincaid MVP24 77 (TE5) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Dawson Knox MVP24 27 (TE13) with alternate forecast higher. 

Carolina Panthers

QB: Bryce Young: MVP24 60 (QB18) with alternate forecast of much higher. 

RB: Chubba Hubbard MVP24 57 (RB27) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Jonathon Brooks MVP24 68 (RB23) with alternate estimates higher. 

WR: Dionte Johnson MVP24 67 (WR28) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Adam Thielen MVP24 50 (WR36) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Xavier Legette MVP24 40 (WR40) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Chicago Bears

QB: Caleb Williams: MVP24 73 (QB15) with an alternate forecast of higher. 

RB: D’Andre Swift MVP24 93 (RB15) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Khalil Herbert MVP24 67 (RB23) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Roshon Johnson MVP24 35 (RB31) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: DJ Moore MVP24 85 (WR20) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Keenan Allen MVP24 106 (WR10) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Rome Odunze MVP24 64 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Cole Kmet MVP24 30 (TE12) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Gerald Everett MVP24 21 (TE14) with alternate forecast higher. 

Cincinnati Bengals

QB: Joe Burrow: MVP24 104 (QB5) with an equal chance of a slightly higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Chase Brown MVP24 75 (RB21) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Zack Moss MVP24 73 (RB21) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Ja’Marr Chase MVP24 120 (WR3) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Tee Higgins MVP24 87 (WR18) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Andrei Iosivas MVP24 35 (WR41) with alternate estimates higher. 

WR: Jermaine Burton MVP24 35 (WR41) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Mike Gesicki MVP24 30 (TE12) with alternate forecast higher. 

Cleveland Browns

QB: Deshaun Watson: MVP24 80 (QB12) with an alternate lower forecast. 

RB: Jerome Ford MVP24 72 (RB21) with alternate estimates higher. 

RB: Nick Chubb MVP24 85 (RB17) equals chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Amari Cooper MVP24 74 (WR24) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Jerry Jeudy MVP24 64 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Elijah Moore MVP24 35 (WR41) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: David Njoku MVP24 58 (TE7) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Dallas Cowboys

QB: Dak Prescott: MVP24 83 (QB11) with an alternate forecast of higher. 

RB: Rico Dowdle MVP24 50 (RB25) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott MVP24 70 (RB22) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: DeeDee Lamb MVP24 120 (WR3) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Brandin Cooks MVP24 54 (WR33) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Jalen Tolbert MVP24 30 (WR43) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Jake Ferguson MVP24 52 (TE8) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Denver Broncos

QB: Bo Nix: MVP24 50 (QB20) with alternate forecast of higher. 

RB: Javonte Williams MVP24 55 (RB27) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Jaleel McLaughlin MVP24 56 (RB27) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Audric Estime MVP24 50 (RB30) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Courtland Sutton MVP24 68 (WR28) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Marvin Mims MVP24 35 (WR42) with alternate estimates higher. 

TE: Greg Dulcich MVP24 20 (TE14) with alternate forecast higher. 

Detroit Lions

QB: Jared Goff: MVP24 78 (QB13) with an alternate forecast of higher. 

RB: Jamyr Gibbs MVP24 126 (RB3) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: David Montgomery MVP24 71 (RB22) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Amon Ra St Brown MVP24 130 (WR1) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Jameson Williams MVP24 54 (WR33) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Sam LaPorta MVP24 78 (TE4) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Green Bay Packers

QB: Jordan Love: MVP24 100 (QB9) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Josh Jacobs MVP24 87 (RB17) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Marshawn Lloyd MVP24 44 (RB31) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Jayden Reed MVP24 89 (WR18) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Christian Watson MVP24 78 (WR23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Romeo Doubs MVP24 55 (33) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Dontayvion Wicks MVP24 40 (WR40) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Luke Musgrave MVP24 31 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Houston Texans

QB: CJ Stroud: MVP24 88 (QB10) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

RB: Joe Mixon MVP24 110 (RB5) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Stefon Diggs MVP24 99 (WR13) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Nico Collins MVP24 103 (WR11) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Tank Dell MVP24 80 (WR22) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Dalton Schultz MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Indianapolis Colts

QB: Anthony Richardson: MVP24 112 (QB4) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Jonathon Taylor MVP24 112 (RB4) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Michael Pittman MVP24 92 (WR15) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Josh Downs MVP24 46 (WR38) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Adonai Mitchell MVP24 30 (WR43) with an alternate forecast of higher. 

TE: Kylen Granson MVP24 35 (TE11) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB: Trevor Lawrence MVP24 81 (QB12) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Travis Etienne MVP24 91 (RB16) equals chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Tank Bigsby MVP24 55 (RB28) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Brian Thomas MVP24 78 (WR24) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Christian Kirk MVP24 71 (WR26) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Gabe Davis MVP24 46 (WR38) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Evan Engram MVP24 61 (TE7) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB: Patrick Mahomes: MVP24 125 (QB3) with an equal chance of a slightly higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Isiah Pacheco MVP24 106 (RB10) with alternate forecast of lower. 

WR: Rashee Rice MVP24 93 (WR15) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Xavier Worthy MVP24 84 (WR20) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Hollywood Brown MVP24 52 (WR34) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Travis Kelce MVP24 95 (TE1) with alternate forecast slightly lower. 

Las Vegas Raiders

QB: Gardner Minshew: MVP24 55 (QB18) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Zamir White MVP24 75 (RB21) equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Davante Adams MVP24 91 (WR16) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Jakobi Meyers MVP24 75 (WR25) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Tre Tucker MVP24 40 (WR40) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Brock Bowers MVP24 50 (TE8) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Michael Mayer MVP24 20 (TE14) with alternate forecast higher. 

Los Angeles Chargers

QB: Justin Herbert: MVP24 88 (QB10) with an alternate higher forecast. 

RB: Gus Edwards MVP24 69 (RB23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: JK Dobbins MVP24 40 (RB31) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Kimani Vidal MVP24 62 (RB24) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Joshua Palmer MVP24 60 (WR31) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Ladd McConkey MVP24 60 (WR31 with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Quention Johnston MVP24 42 (WR38) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Hayden Hurst MVP24 30 (TE12) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Will Dissly MVP24 33 (TE11) with alternate forecast lower. 

Los Angeles Rams

QB: Matthew Stafford: MVP24 85 (QB12) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Kyren Williams MVP24 109 (RB8) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Blake Corum MVP24 65 (RB23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Cooper Kupp MVP24 102 (WR11) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Puka Nacua MVP24 112 (WR6) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Damarcus Robinson MVP24 62 (WR29) with alternate forecast lower.

TE: Colby Parkinson MVP24 33 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Miami Dolphins

QB: Tua Tagovailoa: MVP24 86 (QB11) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Raheem Mostert MVP24 77 (RB19) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: De’Von Achane MVP24 104 (RB10) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Jaylen Wright MVP24 69 (23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Tyreek Hill MVP24 127 (WR2) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Jaylen Waddle MVP24 90 (WR17) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: John Smith MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Minnesota Vikings

QB: Sam Darnold: MVP24 55 (QB18) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Aaron Jones MVP24 86 (RB17) with alternate estimates lower. 

RB: Ty Chandler MVP24 64 (24) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Justin Jefferson MVP24 116 (WR5) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Jordan Addison MVP24 67 (WR28) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Jalen Nailor MVP24 45 (WR38) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: TJ Hockenson MVP24 75 (TE5) with alternate forecast lower. 

TE: Johnny Mundt MVP24 35 (TE11) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

New England Patriots

QB: Jacoby Brissett MVP24 50 (QB20) with equal chance of higher or lower alternative forecast.

QB: Drake Maye MVP24 55 (QB18) with an equal chance of higher or lower alternative forecast. 

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson MVP24 103 (RB12) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Antonio Gibson MVP24 67 (RB23) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Ja’Lynn Polk MVP24 63 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Demario Douglas MVP24 44 (WR38) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: KJ Osborn MVP24 56 (WR33) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Javon Baker MVP24 57 (WR33) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Hunter Henry MVP24 40 (TE10) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Austin Hooper MVP24 20 (TE14) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

New Orleans Saints

QB: Derek Carr MVP24 70 (QB16) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Alvin Kamara MVP24 89 (RB16) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Chris Olave MVP24 92 (WR16) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Rashid Shaheed MVP24 52 (WR35) with alternate estimates higher. 

WR: AT Perry MVP24 50 (WR36) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Juwan Johnson MVP24 31 (TE12) with alternate forecast lower. 

TE: Taysom Hill MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

New York Giants

QB: Daniel Jones MVP24 75 (QB14) with an equal chance of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Devin Singletary MVP24 65 (RB23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Tyrone Tracy MVP24 52 (RB28) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Malik Nabers MVP24 65 (WR28) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Wan’Dale Robinson MVP24 45 (WR38) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Theo Johnson MVP24 36 (TE11) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

New York Jets

QB: Aaron Rodgers MVP24 66 (QB17) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Breece Hall MVP24 130 (RB2) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Braelon Allen MVP24 65 (RB23) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Garret Wilson MVP24 77 (WR23) with alternate forecast higher.

WR: Mike Williams MVP24 90 (WR17 with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Tyler Conklin MVP24 20 (TE14) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB: Jalen Hurts MVP24 126 (QB1) with alternate forecast slightly lower. 

RB: Saquon Barkley MVP24 103 (RB12) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: AJ Brown MVP24 (WR12) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: DeVonta Smith MVP24 82 (WR20) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Jahan Dotson MVP24 45 (WR38) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Dallas Goedert MVP24 45 (TE9) with alternate forecast higher. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB: Russel Wilson MVP24 67 (QB17) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Najee Harris MVP24 79 (RB19) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Jaylen Warren MVP24 63 (RB24) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: George Pickens MVP24 64 (WR29) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Van Jefferson MVP24 30 (WR43) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

WR: Roman Wilson MVP24 53 (WR35) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Pat Freiermuth MVP24 50 (TE8) with alternate forecast higher. 

San Francisco 49ers

QB: Brock Purdy MVP24 85 (QB11) with an equal chance of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Christian McCaffrey MVP24 143 (RB1) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Deebo Samuel MVP24 106 (WR8) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Brandon Aiyuk MVP24 91 (WR16) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: George Kittle MVP24 58 (TE7) with alternate forecast higher. 

Seattle Seahawks

QB: Geno Smith MVP24 71 (QB16) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Kenneth Walker MVP24 98 (RB15) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

RB: Zach Charbonnet MVP24 59 (RB26) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: DK Metcalf MVP24 84 (WR19) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Tyler Lockett MVP24 67 (WR28) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba MVP24 60 (WR31) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Noah Fant MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB: Baker Mayfield MVP24 65 (QB17) with alternate forecast estimates

RB: Rachaad White MVP24 88 (RB17) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Bucky Irving MVP24 62 (RB24) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Mike Evans MVP24 90 (WR17) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Chris Godwin MVP24 87 (WR19) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

TE: Cade Otton MVP24 25 (TE13) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

Tennessee Titans

QB: Will Levis MVP24 60 (QB18) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Tony Pollard MVP24 89 (RB17) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Tyjae Spears MVP24 71 (RB22) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins MVP24 73 (WR26) with alternate forecast slightly higher. 

WR: Calvin Ridley MVP24 71 (WR26) with equal chances of higher or lower alternative forecast.

WR: Tyler Boyd MVP24 61 (WR30) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo MVP24 28 (TE13) with alternate forecast higher. 

Washington Commanders

QB: Jayden Daniels MVP24 65 (QB17) with alternate forecast higher. 

RB: Brian Robinson MVP24 90 (RB17) with alternate forecast lower. 

RB: Austin Ekeler MVP24 93 (RB15) with alternate forecast lower. 

WR: Terry McLaurin MVP24 78 (WR23) with alternate forecast higher. 

WR: Luke McCaffrey MVP24 30 (WR43) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Zach Ertz MVP24 48 (TE9) with alternate forecast higher. 

TE: Ben Sinnott MVP24 36 (TE11) with alternate forecast higher. 

Conclusion

Forecasting weekly values in Fantasy Football is a tricky business. Since we are not discussing year-end points, my forecast establishes a group value for players. This group value is often the upside potential for any player. Follow along all season to see the updated weekly values for every Fantasy Football significant player this season. Good luck in the 2024 season!