WK 1 to 3 MPV Index for the QB Position

I have always been stricter in rating the QB position than any other in Fantasy Football. (With the possible exception of defensive players in IDP formats, of course) Unlike the positions where the MVP Index can be used as an excellent tool between the RB, WR, and TE positions when deciding on Flex Starters, the QB position data stands alone. 

We are still examining the three factors that can win or lose a Fantasy Football matchup for you; we are just doing it on a different scale of points. Before we dive into the results for QBs, I remind you that we use the past two seasons PLUS the current season to calculate the MVP Index. Watching the change of this index over time will let us know which QBs have the hot hand for the 2023 season. Before we dive into the data, this is a reminder of why this concept originated for beta testing this season. 

Total Points are Deceiving 

Every season, fantasy football managers are chasing points instead of volume. Any player in the NFL can have a hot couple of games to start the season, but as the late great Dennis Green once told us, “They are who we thought they were.” it’s essential to look at a player’s performance over a more extended period than just the first two weeks of any season. 

Points per Game can be just as deceiving because 24 plus 2 equals 14 plus 12. Fantasy Football is a weekly game. My Weekly Values tool is excellent at showing a player’s worth any given week, but how often do performance spikes cause us to win or lose a matchup? That’s why even after developing one excellent weekly metric, I kept trying to find another tool that showed me a player’s chance of helping me win or lose on any given week. 

Three Things Matter in Fantasy Football

On any given week, a player can either help, hurt, or have that kind of performance somewhere in between. If we figure out a way to look at those frequencies and find the right recipe to add them all together, we have another metric to tell us a player’s worth to your team. Some super consistent guys might not have as big of a spike week to the high side, but they never give us that nasty two or three-point result. Those are the true Kings of fantasy football production and are often the type of player that makes us a league winner. The metric below has been calculated with 6 points for each TD scored, whether rushing or passing at the QB position. Let’s look at the MVP Index at QB after three weeks of the NFL season. 

From Top to Bottom at the QB Position After 3 Weeks

1. Josh Allen 94 Points: Offers the massive upside of the big games (13 games with 35+ points over his last 37 starts) but is insulated from the low side games (3 games under 15 points) due to his rushing prowess. 

2. Patrick Mahomes 92 Points: The most consistent QB in Fantasy Football by far has two fewer big games than Allen and only one more low-side game over his last 37 starts. Will the improving KC Defense take a bite off his top end this season? 

3. Jalen Hurts 79 Points: The top two have separated themselves from the rest of the pack at the QB position, but Hurts is the undisputed 3rd place guy. Plus, 18% when you compare his big games to his low-side games gives you a clear edge weekly, with his rushing ability the key. 

4. Justin Herbert 65 Points: While he is significantly below the top three, there is no doubt that Herbert is on the short list of “Elite QBs in Fantasy Football.” The Chargers' lack of defense on many weeks also increases his potential to help you win your fake football matchup. 

5. Joe Burrow 60 Points: Close behind Herbert in 5th place with a 7-5 edge in big games versus low-side games over his past 36 starts. Will his injury linger this season and drop his MVP Index as the 2023 season unfolds? 

6. Dak Prescott 52 Points: He has thrown in one more low-side game than big game over his last 31 starts, which shows how big of a drop there is in value at the QB position after the top five. The roller coaster ride with Dak can drive you crazy at times. 

7. Anthony Richardson 50 Points: This is the time to provide the disclaimer that his shallow sample size of only two games makes it hard to know how solid AR might be throughout a full season, let alone an entire career, but the upside with his skill set is immense. 

8. Kirk Cousins 49 Points: The Viking's defense gives up a ton of yardage and points, and so far, their running game has been below average. This fact could set up Cousins for continued greatness in the fake football game, especially in leagues that discount INTs. 

9. Lamar Jackson 44 Points: It might surprise many to see the one-time league MVP sitting this low in the rankings. But over his last 27 games, he has had as many low-side games as giant games, with 5 of each and a meager 44% consistency rating of hitting a solid floor. 

10. Tua Tagliavoa 34 Points: Leaving some games early due to injury has lowered his fake football game value, which shows up in his MVP Rating. But if you condense his data down to the past two seasons, his value soars to 59 points or QB6 using the MVP Index. 

11. CJ Stroud 33 Points: Another minimal sample size of only three games, but I have been impressed with the poise of this rookie to start the season. I expected him to be the most NFL-ready of the QBs, but he is also showing some instant upside in the fake football game. 

12. Brock Purdy 33 Points: The journey from Mister Irrelevant to making a 1st round pick expendable has been incredible in real football terms. But his solid gameplay week in and week out makes him the perfect QB2 in Superflex leagues. 

13. Matthew Stafford 32 Points: Last season, the Fantasy Football world left this guy for dead. This season, Stafford is showing that he still has some excellent skills in the actual football game, and that translates well in the fake football game, too. 

14. Geno Smith 30 points: Last year’s “Comeback Player of the Year” has brought his career back to life in the actual football game. His 48% consistency to a solid floor value combined with having a 5-1 disadvantage of low side games to big games limits his upside in the fake football game. 

15. Jared Goff 18 Points: His home/away splits were enormous last year. But upon further review, albeit with a small sample size, his worse games come in windier conditions on the road than calmer weather days, making him an ideal QB2 in Superflex leagues. 

16. Russel Wilson 16 Points: Last year was an awful season for Russ; he proved he can cook but has a limited menu. This season, the Broncos defense has taken such a wicked turn to the awful side we might see a more fantasy football-relevant Chef Russ. 

17. Jordan Love 10 Points: Steady but unspectacular is the small sample size look at Love’s career so far. But he is the undisputed QB with the Packers, and they have finally added some more talent, which could make him more effective in the future. 

18. Daniel Jones 4 Points: When Danny Dimes is bad, he is awful, and when he is not so bad, he is almost adequate. But he has a 9-2 lousy game to big point game tally in his last 30 games. If it weren’t for his running ability, he would be downgraded to Danny Penny. 

19. Ryan Tannehill 1 Point: Once upon a time, in a galaxy far away, Tanny was an excellent QB2 in Superflex leagues that you could get at a great value. He was never a high-volume passing guy during his best times, but those best times are well behind him now. 

20. Jimmy Garappolo 1 Point: “Game Manager” in real football seldom translates to a guy you want to roster in a fake football game. He might move up the rankings a bit if he turned into a higher pass-volume guy. 

21. DeShaun Watson 0 Points: There was a time when Watson was in the MVP discussion in real and fake football formats. He has appeared quite rusty since coming back from suspension, and now the Browns are a run-first team that should cap Watson’s upside in fake football. 

22. Sam Howell 0 Points: I didn’t understand the infatuation with Howell leading up to this season. He had only played one game, and while he flashed some running ability at that start, the result was rather average. Turnover issues could send him to the bench soon. 

23. Derek Carr -3 Points: The fake football schedule was kind to Carr, with quite a few good defensive matchups late in the actual football season when the fake football playoffs were going on. But so far this season, he is 3 for 3 in posting bad games and now is dealing with a shoulder injury, too. 

24. Justin Fields -8 Points: When it came time for me to pick in the Scott Fishbowl in the first round, I got cute and picked Fields over Herbert, who ranked higher in my weekly value ratings. Had I invented the MVP Index in July, I would have avoided making a colossal mistake on Fields. 

25. Trevor Lawrence -14 Points: His rookie year was a disaster, and we could blame horrible coaching. His second season was much better, and showed promise. This year, he has taken an enormous step backward, which has puzzled me. 

26. Mac Jones -17 Points: Last year was a huge step backward for Jones as the Patriots failed their experiment of not having a real offensive coordinator. This season, he got off to a fantastic start in week one but has returned to slightly below average in the last two weeks. 

27. Baker Mayfield -38 Points: He has been solid but not spectacular so far with the Bucs, but that doesn’t translate into much for fake football value. He has yet to hit the consistency rating level for a solid floor and has one bad game out of his three starts. 

28. Joshua Dobbs -40 Points: It’s been a weird year for the Arizona Cardinals trying to replace injured QB Kyler Murray. Dobbs won the battle by having the least bad performances and has two solid games in a row after a horrible week one. 

29. Bryce Young -50 Points: Too small of a sample size to come to any conclusions yet. The troubling side for his fake football investors is that cagey veteran Andy Dalton looked better last week and got more production out of the other parts and pieces on that offense. 

30. Zach Wilson -53 Points: This wasn’t the QB the Jets fans had in mind to lead them to the glorious outcome they have longed for over the years. But Zach got thrust into the position after the Aaron Rodgers era ended after four snaps. Fans wish the Wilson era were equally short. 

31. Desmond Ridder -57 Points: Somehow, the Falcons have started the season 2-1, but the league learned that when you make Ridder win games with his arm, he can’t get it done. The only positive thing is that someone else has been even worse! 

32. Kenny Pickett -60 Points: Pickett is 31st in QBR, according to ESPN. He is also in the 30th or worst position for almost every stat at the QB position. Will he get better? Maybe, but he sure can’t get any worse regarding fake football value. 

Conclusion

Total points and even points per game are deceiving statistics because they don’t give a complete picture of what you need to know in fantasy football. After all, fantasy football is a weekly game. The MVP Index attempts to give one value for a player’s value in fantasy football based on the three things that can happen every week. A player can have an average game that keeps you in your matchup, he can have a big points game that can make you a winner, or he can have a lousy game that dooms your team to oblivion regardless of what others in your starting lineup does on that given week. 

Balancing all possible outcomes and using a two-year plus this season window gives us enough data points. As the season progresses, we can get a good feeling for the “Hot Hand” at QB for our fantasy football leagues by monitoring the change in the MVP index. The MVP Index also shows us how thin the QB position is regarding the elite QBs that can make you a league winner. You can monitor the rise and fall in the MVP Index in my weekly value report. Good luck this week!