Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Seven 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week seven. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which shows upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Josh Allen (+1) His rushing yards lock in a floor most weeks, and the vulnerable defense means he needs to have a big week for the Bills to win. I worried about the Fantasy Playoffs schedule. 

2. Lamar Jackson (+1) The 2024 Fantasy Football MVP at the halfway point of the regular season and the favorite for the real MVP

3. Joe Burrow (-2) is Another of the top QBs playing with a defense that gives up lots of points, and that’s just what you want for Fantasy Football success at the position.

4. Jordan Love (NC) is The best value in Fantasy Drafts with his consensus ADP of QB9.

5. Jared Goff (+1) The indoor road games are minimizing that usual home/road split so far

6. Jayden Daniels (-1) The only thing that appears to be able to stop this young rookie is the threat of injury, but he should bounce back this week.

7. Jalen Hurts (NC) Should start rising in the ratings with his favorite two targets back from injury

8. Baker Mayfield's (+4) Season got off to a fantastic start, but now he might need to continue that magic without his best two WRs

9. Joe Flacco (NC): This is how solid the backup was when the youngster got hurt.

10. Justin Fields (+1) Was having a solid start in fake football, but the coach made the right QB decision to win real football games.

11. Brock Purdy (-1) Another excellent QB who will be challenged to continue his strong performance without his top two WRs this week

12. Geno Smith (+3) The new coaching staff has been a positive for Geno after a down season last year.

13. CJ Stroud (-5) Threw up an awful game last week and has four games below the historical median for a solid performance for a starting QB in fake football.

14. Sam Darnold (+3) Lost his first real football game but saw his stock rise even more in fake football this week.

15. Kyler Murray (+3) His rushing ability and the addition of another weapon on the offense should have him higher up the rankings

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 include Patrick Mahomes at 17th, Anthony Richardson at 29th, Dak Prescott at 16th  

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (+1) The old man is popping long runs to show that he hasn’t lost a step, despite what Fantasy Football Twitter said before the season.

2. Kyren Williams (-1) Getting the volume needed to stay near the top, and the offense should improve when they get their WRs back from the injured list.

3. Saquon Barkley (+1) The weakness of the Eagle's defense has required high volume for him all season, and that’s paying off in his fake football production, too.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs (+5) My prediction that he would see an increase in volume this season has been verified so far, and it shows with his production.

5. Ken Walker (NC): The new coaching staff is even using him more in the passing game, which is an unexpected bonus for his fake football production.

6. Alvin Kamara (-3) Threw in a lousy game on national television when the Saints had to activate three cheerleaders to play WR. 

7. Joe Mixon (NC): His first three full games played have all been over 25 PPR points

8. Breece Hall (+3) One of the few bright spots in what has been an extraordinary season for the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets 

9. Bijan Robinson (-1) Leads the league in throwing smartphones and broken televisions from Bijan Fantasy Football owners every time Allgeier gets a carry. 

10. Jonathon Taylor (NC): The only thing that has been able to hold JT down in fake football are injuries, and sadly, they are hurting him this season, too

11. De’Von Achane (+2) The entire Dolphins offense has been struggling without Tua.

12. Josh Jacobs (+4) This offense is purring like a finely tuned race car, and Jacobs is getting the needed volume to be a solid RB1 in fake football

13. Aaron Jones (+5) One of the most underrated RBs in the fake football game

14. Austin Ekeler (-8) The “Play Em Both” strategy has worked well with the Commanders RBs so far

15. Brian Robinson NC) Getting essential carries near the goal line and the needed volume to be a strong RB in the fake football game

16. David Montgomery (-4) The volume drop and some in-game minor injuries have dropped him out of the Top 12 this season

17. James Conner (+5) If this Cardinals offense ever lives up to its preseason expectations, we could see him rise in the ratings

18. D’Andre Swift (-1) Should return from his Bye week and continue to move back up the rankings

19. Jordan Mason (-5) Starting to show how much the 49ers miss CMC

20. Chuba Hubbard (+1) Certainly not flashy but very consistent on an offense that has not been very consistent from week to week

21. James Cook (-1) The top RB for the strong Bills offense should be able to put up Top 10 metrics, but the data says differently on Cook

22. Travis Etienne (+5) His injury opened the door for Bigsby, and it will be interesting to see if the volume switches even when both are healthy

23. Tony Pollard (-4) Another RB who is performing much better than his team’s offense this year

24. Nick Chubb (NEW) Had a solid first week back after his rehab from a significant injury and could be a Top 10 RB by the end of the season

25. Najee Harris (+3) Which is the real Najee is the major question again this year, but he has held off Warren for that starting position and solid volume

26. Isiah Pacheco (NC) His replacement has shown that the Chiefs’ starting RB is a top 10 play in Fake Football every week

27. Tank Bigsby (+6) His sensational performance in London when ETN missed the game boosted the Tank into the Top 30 this week

28. JK Dobbins (-4) The lead RB for the run-heavy Chargers should be higher rated, which shows that the door is open for the rookie to take over the job eventually

29. Richard White (+5) Nothing like a little RB competition on a team to bring out the best in a player

30. Chase Brown (--7): The volume split with the Bengals’ RBs is capping the upside for both players

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: NONE except for the injured players not eligible for the list yet 

WR Position

1. Justin Jefferson (NC): Any future Fantasy Football preseason draft cheat sheet that doesn’t include him as WR1 will be considered invalid for the next 5 years, minimum

2. Amon Ra St Brown (+1), The top target at WR for one of the most exciting offenses in the league, is a must-have in any format of fake football.

3. Malik Nabers (-1) is The best rookie WR this season, and there isn’t a solid case that could be made for anyone else.

4. Ja’Marr Chase (NC) is a fantastic playmaker on a team that, because of their weak defense in real football, must make plays early and often to win.

5. Cee Dee Lamb (NC) Teams know they only have one guy to stop on the Cowboys to win, and they still can’t stop him often.

6. Chris Godwin (+2) Made it as high as 6th on this list before a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football will have him exit next week.

7. AJ Brown (+2) If the Eagles had to pass the ball more, then he would be Top 3 on this list.

8. Nico Collins (-1) Holding on to a top 10 spot despite missing the last two games

9. Stefon Diggs (-3) The offense struggled last week but don’t expect that to happen very often going forward 

10. Brian Thomas Jr (+6) Easily the second-best rookie WR in the league this year and certainly the best draft value in dynasty formats

11. Jayden Reed (-1) is Fighting some nagging injuries but is a dynamic playmaker on a terrific passing offense, and those are the kinds of players you want in fake football.

12. DJ Moore (+1) has been the favorite target for an excellent rookie quarterback, but I’m not sure the Bears will need to throw that much every week.

13. Mike Evans (-2) How quickly he can come back from a significant hamstring injury holds the future of the Buc's success in real football and many fake football teams, too

14. Garret Wilson (+1): Just when it looked safe to say this talented player was finally ready to crack the Top 10, the Jets added the QB's favorite old wide receiver, and now the plot thickens.

15. Tee Higgins (+4) is Capable of being an Alpha WR in this league, which would instantly elevate him to the Top 7 in fake football value. 

16. DK Metcalf (+4) His weekly value consensus is fantastic, considering how much WR talent the Seahawks have on their team.

17. Cooper Kupp (+1): Will he get traded before the trade deadline, and if so, will that be to a better team? 

18. DeVonta Smith (-6) Did an incredible disappearing act last week, but that will probably be his worst game this season by far.

19. Davante Adams (-5) The Jets season is like a bad soap opera, and his fate in fake football is now up for grabs.

20. Deebo Samuel (-3) Would live up to his Top 10 ADP if he could ever stay healthy all season

21. Terry McLaurin (+2): Could you imagine how great Daniels might be as a QB if the Commanders added more talent at WR to go with Scary Terry?

22. Zay Flowers (-1) A dynamic playmaker on a team that doesn’t have to throw the ball very often

23. Drake London (+1) Top 10 talent stuck in an offense that keeps him outside of the top 20

24. Tyreek Hill (-2) Even Superman has his Kryptonite, and for the Cheetah, that has been the lack of a competent QB.

25. Keenan Allen (NC) Continues to command enough of a target share to remain relevant in fake football.

26. Amari Cooper (+10) Jumped ten spots in the consensus weekly value rankings in one week after going from incompetent QB to one of the Top 3

27. Jakobi Meyers (NC) Could be a sneaky value in fake football the rest of the season if he can get healthy again.

28. Michael Pittman (+1) Maybe Flex starter is the most we can expect from him

29. George Pickens (+19) Could feast on those 50/50 Moon Balls from Russ

30. Jordan Addison (-4) Robin didn’t get much credit when he was working with Batman, and this guy can relate 

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Puka Nacua at 41st, Marvin Harrison Jr at 39th, Chris Olave at 34th, Brandon Aiyuk at 36th 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC) is Holding down the top spot, and it's not even close right now 

2. Brock Bowers (NC) The best rookie TE in the history of fake football 

3. Trey McBride (+2) Five of six games over 8 PPR points is solid and consistent production at the TE position this season

4. Cole Kmet (NC) Backing up that “Rookie QBs love throwing to their TE” myth

5. Travis Kelce (-2) The addition of a solid WR with the trade for D-Hop should open the field up for the best TE in the game

6. Mark Andrews (+4) All it took to get him back to great production was for some in the fantasy football Twitter space to say you could drop him

7. Dallas Goedert (-1) Has been a solid late TE choice in fake football this season

8. David Njoku (+8) Change of QB and a return to health should move him back into the top 5

9. Zach Ertz (+3): As long as the team keeps winning, the switch of playing time to the rookie will be delayed 

10. Jake Ferguson (-2) The entire Cowboys offense is struggling this season without a run game, and with Dak playing some of the worst football in his career 

11. Taysom Hill (-4) The hybrid has dropped out of the top 10 with missed playing time

12. Tucker Kraft (+2), One of the rising stars at the position in real football, probably has his fake football value capped with all those weapons in GB

13. John Smith (+8) Worried that his fake football value plummets when a real QB is back at the helm of that offense

14. Kyle Pitts (+1) Starting to show glimpses of that rookie season finally

15. Evan Engram (+1) When he is healthy, he is a top 5 talent at TE in fake football 

The top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15 include Sam LaPorta at 18th and Dalton Kincaid at 17th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This is a live Beta Test, so consider that when using these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in week eight!