Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Five 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week five. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

Joe Burrow: Joe Cool hits the top spot this week, and it makes sense because the Bengals' defense is giving up so many points that he will have to pass early and often. 

Lamar Jackson: It’s hard to have an MVP season when your team has lost two of its first five games, but Lamar is having a fantastic season. 

Jordan Love: Came back from injury to take over as one of the most consistent QBs in fake football. 

Josh Allen has been slightly inconsistent and slips to fourth this week. 

Jayden Daniels: The leader for Rookie of the Year after five weeks and in contention for MVP; that’s how great he has been to start the year. 

CJ Stroud: Moves up three spots this week because others have struggled while he is starting to round into form. 

Jalen Hurts: Back from his bye week with his top two WRs, which should help him return to the top 3 very soon. 

Patrick Mahomes: His “Back Class” keeps him in the top 10, but the Chiefs' defensive strength has relegated Pat outside of the Top 15 in 2024 metrics. 

Justin Fields: His rushing yards are way down this season, but he has been one of the more consistent fake football QBs. 

Dak Prescott: The lack of a running game and an average defense will require Dak to throw early and often. 

Jared Goff: Back from his Bye week, every part of that exciting offense is healthy. 

Geno Smith: Turnovers have hurt his upside, but the new coaching staff is doing wonders with him this season. 

Baker Mayfield: With his fast start, he tops the charts for 2024-only metrics and should continue to rise overall. 

Sam Darnold: Last week in London was the only bad performance of the year. 

Kyler Murray: This offense has been scoring fewer points than expected. 

Top 15 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 include Anthony Richardson at 22nd, Caleb Williams at 26th, and Tua Tagliavoa at 21st 

RB Position

Kyren Williams: The Ram's offense is missing its top two WRs and has been leaning on Kyren.

Saquon Barkley: One of the two best RB free agent signings this season. 

Derrick Henry: The King is defying Father Time and having a great season. 

Alvin Kamara: One of the best values versus ADP at the RB position this year. 

Austin Ekeler: His “Back Class” keeps him this high, but he has been a solid Flex starter. 

Jonathon Taylor: He lost a game last week due to injury, but otherwise, he is off to a great start. 

Jamyr Gibbs: Getting more of the goal line work this season has boosted his value. 

Kenneth Walker is getting more work in the passing game with the new coaching staff.

Jordan Mason has been a solid starter filling in for CMC this year. 

De’Von Achane: This Dolphins offense needs its QB back fast!

Bijan Robinson is still losing volume to Tyler Allgeier, which has kept him from rising any higher. 

Brian Robinson: Quietly having a solid fake football season as expected and could be one of the best values this year. 

David Montgomery: Part of a solid one-two punch in the Lions backfield. 

Josh Jacobs has been getting less volume than last year but has been solid. 

Aaron Jones: He has been a solid part of a solid offense with his new team and will hopefully have time to get healthy on his Bye week. 

Breece Hall: Will the change of coach mid-season help save his season?

Joe Mixon: He got off to a fast start, but injuries have dropped him in the ratings. 

James Cook Should rise in the charts in the next several weeks if this hot start continues. 

Travis Ettienne is off to a slower start this season, and his backup RB is coming on strong. 

Chuba Hubbard: The Panthers offense has improved much with the QB change. 

James Conner: The Cardinal's offense has been inconsistent since the start of the season. 

Tony Pollard: Living up to expectations but staying within them so far. 

JK Dobbins: Solid start to the 2024 season, but this offense still needs to click. 

D’Andre Swift: Back-to-back, these are great weeks after a very sluggish start. 

Chase Brown: I expected him to emerge as the better RB on a great offense, and last week, he showed that he might be the best Bengal RB right now. 

Isiah Pacheco: Injury derailed a solid start to the 2024 season. 

Rhamondre Stevenson ran his way out of the coach’s doghouse last week, and the change at QB can’t be anything but positive news. 

Zach Moss: We might be losing volume in the weeks ahead. 

Zach Charbonnet: Gives the Seahawks a solid one-two punch but is playing second fiddle to KW3. 

Tank Bigsby: Finally, he showed the ability he seemed to have come out of the college game. 

Top 25 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30 include Rachaad White at 34th, Najee Harris at 32nd, Zamir White at 50th, and Raheem Mostert at 35th 

WR Position

Justin Jefferson is having a great start to the season with a new QB, and we are quickly learning that Sam Darnold was not replacing Joe Montana.

Malik Nabers Will miss his second straight game with a concussion but continues to lead the rookie WR class this season.

Amon Ra St Brown Returns from his Bye week and is having a great season so far.

Cee Dee Lamb is frustrated over the lack of volume as teams try to keep him beating them this season.

Ja’Marr Chase: The Bengals will need to score a ton of points to have a chance to win, and he is their number-one offensive weapon

Nico Collins: A great start of the season has been derailed by a trip to the IR

Stephon Diggs Will need to step up with Collins out for at least four weeks. 

Chris Godwin: Rewarding the intelligent people who drafted him this season

Mike Evans: Part of a great one-two punch at WR with the Bucs

Jayden Reed: Another WR who was undervalued during draft season this year

Brian Thomas Jr: Having a sensational rookie season so far

AJ Brown: Returns healthy after his Bye week and should move up into the Top 8 soon

DJ Moore: Turning into the clear number-one option with an improving rookie QB

Devonta Smith: The Eagles offense is potent with their two starting WRs back in the lineup this week

Davante Adams: Went from the “Most Reliable Fake Football WR” list to the “Most Likely to Be Traded by the Deadline” list

DK Metcalf: Still the number one option on a team with lots of options

Rashee Rice: Last week on this list with his season coming to an end

Cooper Kupp: Rams offense missing their top two options at WR

Garret Wilson Finally had the type of week his team managers expected when they drafted him in the 1st round this season

Tee Higgins: Playing for a new deal and showing off those elite skills that will find him a new home next season

Tyreek Hill: Maybe the Dolphins fans can stop whining about Tua after seeing what the best WR in Fantasy Football has looked like without a QB

Deebo Samuel: Been inconsistent this season, but so have the rest of the 49er's playmakers

Zay Flowers: This guy would be more of a force in fake football if he played for a team that passed the ball more

Drake London Shot up the rankings by over 20 spots with his big performance last week

Jordan Addison is turning into a solid WR2 for a very excellent offense

Marvin Harrison Jr: The Cardinals offense hasn’t been very consistent yet this season

Terry McLaurin: The only option for a sensational rookie QB

Rashid Shaheed: A solid WR2 starter in typical PPR scoring but the number one WR in Fish Bowl Scoring that counts return yards

Chris Olave: It can be They are down by the other team’s best CB too often to be higher ranked right now in fake football

Jakobi Meyers: Benefitting from his teammate sitting out the last few weeks

Top 25 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Brandon Aiyuk at 32nd, Amari Cooper at 33rd, Michael Pittman at 35th, Puka Nacua at 37th, Jayden Waddle at 45th  

TE Position

George Kittle is turning out to be the best draft value at TE this year, and it’s not even close.

Travis Kelce: Starting to come on the last few weeks and has the “Back Class” to be Top 3 still

Brock Bowers: Rookie TE is the other massive TE in fake football drafts at this position

Dallas Goedert: The return of the Eagle's top 2 WRs could hurt his production

Trey McBride: If the Cardinals offense can find some consistency, he could be Top 3

Isiah Likely: A few spike weeks have boosted his ranking, but he also features some lousy weeks

Cole Kmet: Developing an excellent rapport with the rookie QB

Jake Ferguson: Not flashy but gets the job done on a solid passing offense

Taysom Hill: Injury issues are holding him back a bit

Tucker Kraft: taking over as one of the more solid TEs in fake football

Mark Andrews: Finally, was spotted on the field doing what he does best

Sam LaPorta: Before the season, I was worried about his production due to so many playmakers on that offense, and that concern was warranted

David Njoku: Injury issues and poor QB play holding him back from being Top 8

Zach Ertz: One of the best cheap options at the position this season

Pat Freiermuth: If the Steelers had to pass more, then Muth would be more of a consistent threat in fake football, too 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15 include Dalton Kincaid at 16th, Kyle Pitts at 17th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to create a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This is a live Beta Test, so consider that when using these ratings for decision-making. Good luck in week six!