Philosophically Speaking: A Fantasy Football Story at QB

Introduction

The greatest thing about Fantasy Football is the variety of games available. For many years, back in the day, all you had was your primary Redraft league. Satisfying, but it could get stale if that’s all you ever played. Then, some inventive minds decided that a Keeper League was a great idea since you could keep some of your favorite players for multiple seasons. Then along came Dynasty Leagues, which let you pretend to be a genuine GM, albeit in Fake Football, and build a dynasty through trades or in the draft. The idea of Best Ball leagues emerged somewhere in a different Fantasy Football universe. These draft-and-forget-it leagues were attractive to people who love to draft too many teams but don’t have time to handle the week-to-week decisions of more than 20 leagues. In recent years, leagues have been added with individual defensive players, and there is a type of league for everyone! It would be tedious to have vanilla ice cream; likewise, playing only one fantasy football format would be boring. Philosophically speaking, there isn’t a “harder” or “easier” format and, indeed, not a “better” format. Let’s look at some areas where the formats require a different strategy. 

Editor’s Note: Unsure of what terms used by DMIC mean? Check the glossary at the end. 


Basic Strategy Declaration 

If anyone tells you there is only one preferred way to win in Fantasy Football, that person giving you advice hasn’t been playing long enough to watch strategy decisions evolve or is feeding you a line of bull. A few years ago, in a league against Fantasy Football analysts, I was in the 12th position in a 12-team redraft league. The banter before the draft was about who would be the first to take a QB and TE among people who constantly preach “Late QB” and “Streaming TE” strategies to their readers and podcast listeners. I said, “Any strategy can be a winning one,” and was mocked for that opinion in the chat. 

Since all the “Safe RBs” and “Value WRs” were gone by the 12th pick, I decided to open the draft with a QB and a TE to make a point. Grabbing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce at the one/two turn was against the grain in a so-called “Expert League.” I would only lose one game during the regular season and lose to the same guy in the playoffs when Alvin Kamara went off with his 5-TD game. The story's moral is that ANY strategy can win if well executed in Fantasy Football in ANY format. The advice included in this article is just a general suggestion of methods that have worked well for me in many leagues in the past. Let’s look at QB for this season. 


QB Strategy Differences

We have seen a considerable change in the quarterback position in fantasy football over the years. In 1QB leagues, you could afford to wait until later in the draft to grab your one and only quarterback, relying on the waiver wire during your starter’s bye week and in case of any injuries. Most team managers in 12-team leagues would only take one QB, with 2-4 taking a backup, leaving the 17th-best QB on waivers. The points lost starting the 12th-best QB were not great so you could make up that difference in the other positions. But over the past few seasons, we have seen the “Elite QBs” distancing themselves from the pack, which has made the QB position more desirable lately. Let’s look at more advice for this position in each format. 


Redraft 1QB Rules of Thumb: 

Each season, I determine how many QBs I expect to be within 20% in Weekly Value from the third-best QB in Fantasy Football. My FF Diary has shown me that I will be competitive if I am within 20% in value with my QB. That usually means I start thinking about grabbing my first quarterback once the first three quarterbacks are off the board. The earlier I draft my first QB, the later I usually grab my backup. In recent years, one strategy I have employed more often is to hold a high-upside running QB and team up with a reliable pocket passer at a solid value. 

This year, my value running QBs would be Anthony Richardson (ADP-QB6), Kyler Murray (QB10), or even rookie Jayden Daniels (QB16), and I would back them up with Jordan Love (QB8), Brock Purdy (QB11), Jared Goff (QB12) or Justin Herbert (QB13). Since I know I can find value at RB and WR later in the draft; I don’t mind grabbing that second quarterback earlier than expected. This approach keeps a valuable starter away from my opponents and gives me some insurance for the season ahead. 


Superflex Redraft Rules of Thumb: 

Superflex leagues can sucker you into drafting marginal QBs feeling like you have to get them while they last on the board. I treat the QB position in these one-season leagues like I treat RBs in other leagues. Don’t overdraft the position late in the first round because of scarcity. Depending on the scoring rules in your league, you might be better off starting another position in that Superflex than the 30th-ranked QB. If you look at the current ADP for the Scott Fish Bowl tournament, only six QBs are going to the first round. The mocks that go into this ADP info represent the opinions of some sharp analysts in the Fantasy Football world. Don’t wait too long for that first quarterback because the runs happen fast in Superflex leagues. If possible, my rule of thumb is to get one of the first ten and two more in the top 25 at the position. While my ideal draft includes three starting QBs, who should be able to hold the starting position, don’t be afraid to take an upside potential backup later in the draft. Depending on roster size, I would like to leave a Superflex league with 4-5 quarterbacks to give me some flexibility during the season. Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott are QBs you should be able to get in the second round. Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams should be available in the third round. Jared Goff and Justin Herbert are two of my favorite guys to grab in the 4th round. For some weird reason, you can get talented older QBs later in Superflex drafts, even in one-year leagues. Will Levis and Bryce Young are the only two QBs I trust after the 100th pick in typical Superflex leagues as my third QB on my team. 


Dynasty Draft Rules of Thumb 1QB and Superflex: 

My strategy in Dynasty drafts at QB differs significantly from my single-season leagues for 1QB or Superflex. I put more emphasis on having an elite quarterback in Dynasty leagues, even in 1 quarterback situations, and tend to draft more starters than in single-season leagues. This strategy works because, typically, in Dynasty drafts, the older RBs, WRs, and TEs fall farther down the draft board than you would think, bringing you lots of unexpected value in the middle to draft rounds later. I would be pleased to leave a typical 1QB Dynasty draft with 2-3 solid starters and 1-2 backups with the potential to take over the job. In Superflex Dynasty drafts, I want to leave with 3-5 solid starters and 2-4 backups, including handcuffing my starters late in the draft. Those handcuffs are valuable in season one and can eventually break out as starters in future seasons, often with other teams. This fact means that unlike in single-season leagues, where I usually am not the first to take a QB, I typically start the runs in Dynasty drafts. If you begin a new Dynasty league with strength at QB, you have more flexibility with trades and rookie drafts in the future. 


Best Ball 1QB Leagues: 

For example, in 1QB Redraft leagues, the later you take your first quarterback in a 1QB Best Ball, the earlier you need to consider taking the second quarterback. It’s not uncommon for me to take 3 QBs over four rounds. My goal is to leave the typical draft with three solid options at QB, but if I only get two at value, I am ok with that, too. Suppose I get to the final rounds with only 2 QBs, and that’s when I might draft the backup to one of my starters. In a 20-round draft, my typical build ends up being 2-3QB, 6-9 RB, 6-9 WR, and 3TE. It’s imperative in typical Best Ball leagues that don’t allow waivers to make sure you’re starting QBs have different bye weeks. This fact is a very different approach than other formats with open waivers. 


Best Ball Superflex Leagues: 

In this format, I am usually one of the first team managers to draft that first QB and quite often my second. My goal is still to leave the draft with three solid starting options, but unlike 1QB Best Ball leagues, it’s unacceptable to go with less than 3. In a 20-round draft, my typical build ends up being 3-4QB, 6-9 RB, 6-9 WR, and 3-4TE. Since I tend to be a little earlier than the rest of the league at QB, I often miss out on an elite TE and sometimes even that next tier. This approach dictates that I sometimes take a fourth TE, sacrificing either RB or WR depth. 


Conclusion

No fixed strategy system works every time! ANY strategy can be turned into a winning one if you hit on your value picks later in the draft and avoid injuries. An adaptive strategy like my “Better Than Zero” game plan is always better than “Zero RB” or “Elite QB or TE.” If you draft different Best Ball leagues, your rosters should look very different naturally depending on your starting slot and the strategies employed by your fellow team managers. Even if you are drafted against the same 11-team managers, your rosters should look different regarding the number of QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you hold yourself to a carved-in-stone roster makeup, you are not being adaptive enough. If you have a solid game plan, you will be more successful but have better results in those leagues where you anticipate the moves. Stay tuned for my rules of thumb at other positions and my updated article about my “Better Than Zero” strategy, which will be coming soon, along with my safe studs and value plays articles. Good luck this season! 


Glossary of Terms: 

One of the biggest challenges is the need for definitive definitions for some article terms. Below is an explanation of each term I used that might have multiple meanings in the Fantasy Football World.