Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Ten

In fantasy football, too many players concentrate on total points, which can deceive us of the actual value of players in fake football. A few vast weeks can vault someone into the top 10 at a position in year-end stats or points per game. My goal with my statistical tools is to show the weekly value of a player by comparing their best games against their fellow players. While year-end points can tell us where we have been, my tools attempt to tell us where we might be going soon and become more heavily weighted for the current season every week. Let’s take a look at this week’s data.  

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” Using a two-year data window, the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football. This metric is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player. 

Consistency Rating- Many people say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game. 

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible outcomes each week that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players. 

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be helpful when making trades to understand how much value you gain or drop at a position in any deal. 

QB Weekly Value

The value of an elite QB shows up better in my Weekly Values or MVP Index versus traditional total points or points per game. Since these are weekly statistical tools and Fantasy Football is a weekly game, these tools are more indicative of a player’s value to your fake football team.  The drop in consistency as you go down the QB ranks is startling. As expected in my pre-season predictions, Dak Prescott has significantly improved this season.

RB Weekly Value

The effect of changes in volume is showing up in a big way at the RB position. Derrick Henry’s drop of 47 points in the MVP Index has been mainly due to a drop in volume. Travis Ettienne’s surge of 46 points in the MVP Index is directly related to his significant increase in volume this season. After an elite few, a much larger group in those second and third tiers shows the advantage of my “Better Than Zero” strategy that loads up on value plays at the RB Position. 

WR Weekly Value

The change in the MVP Index at the WR position also shows players' rising and falling stock. After last season, we thought that Davante Adams might be QB-proof, but a drop of 49 points using the MVP Index shows how far his value has fallen this season. Meanwhile, considerable jumps in MVP Index by Tyreek Hill, Cee Dee Lamb, AJ Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown show how they have been the best values at the top of the WR position this season. 

TE Weekly Value

Each season, we try to figure out which TE might join Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews as fellow elite TE in Fantasy Football. The answer this season is TJ Hockenson, with a 36-point surge in MVP Index to a Super Star level value of 110. After the top three, there is a drop of over 30 points to rookie Sam LaPorta. Trey McBride has surged to TE9 in the MVP23 Index since the injury to Zach Ertz.

Conclusion

Each week, my weekly values continue to be more heavily weighted for the 2023 season. My MVP Index and Consistency Ratings will continue to show the big picture from the 2021 season to the current year. The MVP23 uses the same formula but only utilizes data from this season. Year-end points and even points per game can be very deceiving and, in their best cases, simply show us past performances of what already happened. My weekly tools offer a player value for the future. While the MVP Index is still being beta-tested to determine flex starters this season, the results have been promising. Suppose a player has an MVP Index of 75+. In that case, he should be considered a “Must Start,” and a difference of 15-20 points over another player is significant enough to minimize concerns about defensive matchups. Good luck this week!