The NFL Draft and Way Too Early Fantasy Value- Day 3
The NFL Draft has ended, and as always, the fun job begins for Fantasy Football as we attempt to figure out which one of the rookies has the best opportunity at volume. It doesn’t make sense to guess which player has the most talent because they all have lots of talent to get to the NFL! The trick is to figure out whose game will improve at the next level.
The first two days of the NFL Draft are the best bets for finding that opportunity on their new team. Teams don’t spend high draft capital on a player unless they think he will make a difference. The later we go down the draft order, the more critical the landing position can be. Let’s look team by team at which players drafted from the 4th through 7th rounds have the best opportunity to have a Fantasy Football impact. If a team is omitted, they do not take any Fantasy Football-worthy players on day 3 of the NFL Draft.
Baltimore Ravens
Devontez Walker from North Carolina is an intriguing addition to this offense with 4th-round draft capital at pick 113. He won’t challenge Zay Flowers for lead WR but could be an attractive late investment in Best Ball drafts.
Carolina Panthers
Before the NFL Draft began, I thought Brock Bowers was the only TE who might be Fantasy Football worthy in this class. However, several of the next tier of TEs got great landing positions, including Ja’Tavion Sanders, who was selected in the 4th round at pick 101 and could be a nice sleeper pick as a rookie.
Cincinnati Bengals
Erick All was also selected in the 4th round with pick 115, which puts him in an interesting spot for Fantasy Football production. He has struggled to stay healthy, but when he is on the field, he has continued the tradition of excellence expected by Iowa Hawkeye TEs.
Cleveland Browns
The WR Room is a bit crowded with veterans in Cleveland, but one of the more intriguing WRs in this rookie class was their choice in the 6th round with pick 156. Jamari Thrash is very quick and can make defenders miss. He might not be worthy of even a late-round rookie pick in Dynasty, but keep a look out for his development and be ready to grab him off waivers in deep leagues if he makes the roster.
Denver Broncos
Two of the most intriguing day three picks in this year’s NFL Draft for Fantasy Football purposes were drafted by the Broncos in the 4th and 5th rounds. Troy Franklin from Oregon was this year’s WR who seemed to drop much farther than expected and now teams up with his college quarterback. Austin Estime from Notre Dame lacks speed, which is why he fell to the 5th round, but he lands in an ideal spot for his ability.
Houston Texans
As if the Texans needed more talent on that offense, they grabbed yet another player who could have Fantasy Football significance, but probably not as a rookie. Cade Stover, the TE from Ohio State, was picked in the 4th round but probably will learn behind veteran Dalton Schultz. It might be a tremendous late-round grab in Dynasty to stash on your Taxi Squad.
Kansas City Chiefs
Stop me if you have heard this story before. The Kansas City Chiefs drafted another player who played QB in High School and became an excellent TE in college. Jared Wiley was the 131st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and is another great guy to stash in Dynasty on your Taxi Squad.
Las Vegas Raiders
The good news is that your Zamir White shares in Dynasty Fantasy Football are probably safe heading into the 2024 season. The better news is that the Raiders added an excellent passing game RB in the 6th round. New Hampshire’s Dylan Laube could have instant flex appeal in PPR leagues.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers passed on Michigan RB Blake Corum several times but eventually added some depth in the 6th round with Kimani Vidal from Troy. I doubt he will see enough volume by week one, but he might be another great guy to stash for now because he could inherit a role over on a run-happy offense.
Miami Dolphins
Last season, Raheem Mostert scored 21 TDs, and his fellow RB De’Von Achane added 11 more. Obviously, that means that the Dolphins would add perhaps the fastest RB in this rookie class to their offense by drafting Jaylen Wright from Tennessee in the fourth round. Maybe the Dolphins plan to enter a 4x100 relay team in the Paris Olympics this Summer! I will draft Wright just in case he finds volume in this offense.
New England Patriots
We are not likely to recognize the Patriots offense next season without a scorecard! After adding a new starting QB at pick three and a new WR1 at pick 37, they added three more skill position players on day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. WR Javon Baker from UCF was an exciting addition in the 4th round and should pair well with fellow rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, who was taken in the second round. Both WRs will be on my draft boards. They also added TE Jaheim Bell from Florida State in the 7th round, who will be on my late-pick radar this season in all Fantasy Formats, too.
New York Giants
Getting an opportunity to gain a starting position in the NFL instantly gets a player on my draft board, regardless of how confident I am in that player’s ability coming out of college. Penn State’s Theo Johnson wasn’t the best TE on his team last year, but with the expected retirement of veteran Darrel Waller, Johnson could be a starter in week one. In this rookie class, the Giants also grabbed one of my favorite RBs from Purdue, Tyrone Tracey. He is a converted wide receiver with limited mileage on his knees, and now he gets weak veterans in front of him on the depth chart. This is an excellent chance to gain relevance for fantasy football early in the season.
New York Jets
The Jets decided to irritate the Fantasy Football world by grabbing one of the best power RBs in this rookie class while already having one of the league’s most dynamic starters commanding a heavy workload. Braelon Allen from Wisconsin is worth investing in for two reasons. He could instantly split time with Breece Hall as the Thunder to Hall’s Lightning. Hall's past injury history makes Allen an easy handcuff in all formats. (I might even play them both!)
Philadelphia Eagles
Nobody in this rookie class would have been capable of taking volume away from Saquon Barkley. But Coach Nick Sirianni likes to split carries even when the RBs' talent is vastly different. Clemson’s Will Shipley might be a great compliment to Saquon and should adapt well to the pro game, making him an intriguing pick on his own and a must-have handcuff if you draft Saquon early.
San Francisco 49ers
Nobody in this rookie class would have been capable of taking volume away from Christian McCaffrey, who is in a tier all to himself in Fantasy Football. But the 49ers want to keep him nice and fresh for the playoffs and invested in the perfect compliment in the 4th round of this year’s draft. Isaac Guerendo might instantly earn the work they tried to give to others last season, and he is an intriguing pick in all formats. They also drafted the heir apparent to whichever WR they end up trading when they grabbed Arizona’s Jacob Cowing in the 4th round, who should work out of the slot with attractive Ball value if Aiyuk and Samuel play for the 49ers this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dynasty Fantasy Football managers worldwide were worried about which of the incumbent RBs that surprised us last season would see a challenge to their volume from the addition of a rookie. The guy who might have lost that battle is Rachaad White from the Bucs. White was inefficient in actual football production last season but managed to grind out an excellent Fantasy Football season. Adding Oregon’s Bucky Irving in the 4th round will threaten White’s volume this season.
Conclusion
It’s way too early to know which one of the rookies mentioned above might turn into this year’s sleeper pick that will help you win your Fantasy Football Championship. But understanding possible switches in volume, whether that’s touches for RBs, targets for WRs, or offensive snaps for TEs, can help you find those hidden gems. After the dust settles from UDFA signings and possible late trades, I will have a more comprehensive look at the 2024 rookie class from a Fantasy Football perspective.