Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Thirteen

Listeners of our podcast with the Professor know that my Fantasy Football forecasting methods are derived from my experience in horse race handicapping and weather prediction. Creating an "Index" by combining various essential elements has proven very effective in weather forecasting. Similarly, a rating system that integrates class, recent form, and speed in horse racing has enhanced my understanding of each race's dynamics. This year, I've introduced a novel in-season metric that amalgamates four distinct ratings to generate a weekly consensus rating. Now, let's examine the consensus rating following week thirteen.

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which shows upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more every week while continuing to use the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Perhaps Lamar Jackson (NC) is The MVP in Fake Football, but five losses make it very hard to select as MVP in real football.

2. Joe Burrow (+1) The defense is lousy, and if Joe Cool’s body holds together, he will be the best QB value of the season

3. Josh Allen (-1) Showed great off-track ability last week

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4. Jalen Hurts (NC) has not had the season I imagined for him because that defense and Saquon mean he can do less to win.

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5. Jayden Daniels (+3) is the best rookie quarterback in this class for fantasy football, and it’s not even close.

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6. Patrick Mahomes (-1) We have seen a few chinks in the armor of that Chiefs defense, so he has had to try on his Superman Cape before the playoffs. 

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7. Jordan Love (+1) The Second half of the top 12 is a tight tier, with Love getting the love for the QB7 slot.

8. Tua Tagovailoa (+3) Played his way into form and is now rising fast in these ratings.

9. Jameis Winston (+6) Contributed to six TDs on Monday Night Football, but 2 of them went to the wrong team, costing him the game in real football.

10. Jared Goff (NC): His home/away splits are still concerning, and the strength of the defense takes the upside off his fake football production on many weeks

11. Baker Mayfield (-2) Had his second bad game in the last three starts but only his third of the season.

12. Brock Purdy (-5) His Faddah wasn’t a Buddha, and his Muddah wasn’t a Muddah either 

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13. Sam Darnold (-1) Has been slightly better than Kirk Cousins was the last few seasons.

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14. Bo Nix (-1) Lack of a running game has helped his fake football production

15. Trevor Lawrence (-1) Concussion could end his season

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 Kyler Murray at 17th, Anthony Richardson at 22nd, CJ Stroud at 24th 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC) The King is no longer alone at the top, and he has company 

2. De’Von Achane (+2) Since Tua returned, he has been the top RB in fake football.

3. Bijan Robinson (NC): Still losing some points in this offense to a solid goal line back on the roster and occasionally foul QB play, too

4. Saquon Barkley (-2) The bad news is that his production last week dropped by more than half the week before; the good news is that the previous week was insane.

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5. Josh Jacobs (+1): Is he the Rodney Dangerfield of fake football running backs? 

6. Joe Mixon (+2) The Texans might be a 0.500 team without him

7. Jahmyr Gibbs (-2) The presence of so many playmakers on one team can limit his upside at times

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8. Kyren Williams (+1) Lost some volume to the rookie last week, is that a sign of things to come? 

9. Alvin Kamara (-2) Teams facing the Saints know he is the only player that can beat them

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10. Breece Hall (NC): Will injuries add up and end his season early? 

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11. Chase Brown (+1) Remember when so many Fantasy Football Analysts told you this guy couldn’t be a solid 3-down RB in the NFL? Those were fun days!

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12. Ken Walker (-1) His vulture TD might cost me a trip to the fake football playoffs in one league, and it cost him a spot in the rankings this week. 

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13. David Montgomery (NC) Six straight games over the 12+ point level and 10 of 11 starts this year

14. Bucky Irving (+12): Remember when many Fantasy Football Analysts told you his landing spot was awful for his fake football production? Good times! 

15. James Conner (NC): His fantasy football managers cringe every time the rookie has a solid run, but the old guy just got a new contract 

16. Aaron Jones (-2) Starting to show signs of the minor injuries adding up and slowing him down 

17. James Cook (NC): It took him a while to switch to snowshoes, but once he did, he did great

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18. Christian McCaffrey (-2) Will drop off the charts next week after his season-ending injury, making him one of the worst 1.01 picks in fake football history

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19. Najee Harris (+10) looked like the old Najee again, and the offense is improving. 

20. Chuba Hubbard (NC) Threw in the type of a dud week that his fantasy football managers worry could get the rookie more playing time.

21. Rhamondre Stevenson (+1) It’s been an up-and-down fake football season for him this year.

22. Tony Pollard (-1) Week 12 looked like a tough spot, and he had a great game; last week looked easy, and he failed to make double digits.

23. Jonathon Taylor (NC) Looked like the JT we expected to see at his lofty pre-season ADP.

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24. Brian Robinson (NC) Came back healthy, and the lack of Ekeler in that backfield should keep him rising in the ratings.

25. D’Andre Swift's (6) Big drop within a very tight tier from QB19 to QB25

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26. Nick Chubb's (+7) Team has been chucking the ball like crazy since Jameis took over, but that could benefit him down the stretch. 

27. Rachaad White (NC) Has lost the RB1 volume to the rookie

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28. Travis Etienne (+4) Jag's offense is consistently inconsistent, and that will hurt ETN down the stretch for the fake football playoffs.

29. Isiah Pacheco (-1) Playing himself into shape for the actual football playoffs.

30. Tyrone Tracy (+4), a Talented rookie, should continue to post some great games down the stretch. 

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: NONE 

WR Position

1. Ja’Marr Chase (NC): Three straight games over 20 PPR points and 50% over that mark for the season have him in a tier-one

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2. This season, Justin Jefferson's (NC) Strength of defense is cutting into the need to chuck the ball as much, which has capped his upside for some weeks.

3. Amon Ra St Brown (NC) is One of the most reliable high-target guys at WR every week.

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4. Malik Nabers (+2) Imagine what this rookie could do with a Top 10 talent at QB? 

5. Cee Dee Lamb (NC) Inconsistent QB play has only dropped him to the second tier.

6. AJ Brown (+1) The Strength of the Eagle's defense means there is less of a need for more of a passing game, which caps his upside around WR5.

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7. Cooper Kupp (-3): Is Nacua becoming the WR1 with the Rams? 

8. Nico Collins (NC) Came back from injury to play at a very high level 

THREE TIER DROPS

9. Tyreek Hill (+9): The old Cheetah showed up last week!

10. Mike Evans (+5) Continues to make some fantastic catches and should keep his 1000-yard season streak going if he can stay healthy.

11. DJ Moore (+1) The rookie QB is playing much better with the switch of playcallers

12. Tee Higgins (-2) Hard to move up too high when the top-tier WR is on your team

13. Terry McLaurin (NC) Scary Terry living up to his nickname with the rookie playing so great at QB

14. Puka Nacua (-3) Could be emerging as the chosen WR on the Rams

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15. Garret Wilson (-6) Will the Jets shutdown Rodgers? Will Rodgers quit the Jets? 

16. Davante Adams (+1): If Rodgers hangs it up before the season ends, will his injuries return? 

17. Zay Flowers (-3) Would be a Top 10 WR in fake football on a team that needed to throw more

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18. Brian Thomas (-2) It’s been a solid rookie campaign for BTJ

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19. DK Metcalf (+1) Starting to lose target share to JSN

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20. Jakobi Meyers (+1) AOC at QB might make him more of a threat down the stretch 

21. Devonta Smith (-2) Injuries and lower passing volume could turn him into only a flex play.

22. Jaxon Smith Njigba (NC): If you have up on JSN in dynasty formats, you don’t deserve nice things

23. Keenan Allen (+10): Remember when so many Fantasy Football analysts said that Fat Keenan wouldn’t do much with the Bears this season? Fun times!

24. Ladd McConkey (+8) I was dead wrong on this Ladd, who is emerging into a solid WR2 play in all formats of fake football 

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25. Courtland Sutton (NC) Team must chuck the ball more than expected, and he is benefitting 

26. Jayden Reed (-3) Game scripts and low target share are capping his production, but he keeps finding the endzone more than most

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27. Drake London (NC): Kirk Cousins has not been as good as advertised

28. Deebo Samuel (-4) Gave you a big week last week IF your league scores return yards

29. George Pickens (+1) Next year, he will be my WR1 in leagues, which gives you bonus points for yelling at teammates, officials, fans, etc.

30. Jerry Jeudy (+4) Had such a great revenge game that Hallmark is considering making it into a sappy holiday movie  

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Marvin Harrison at 35th, Jaylen Waddle at 36th, Chris Olave at 40th 

TE Position

1. Brock Bowers (+2): I expected him to be very good but not the best TE in the league in his rookie season! 

2. George Kittle (-1) Only snow has been able to slow him down this season 

3. Travis Kelce (-1) Five of the last six weeks over 12 PPR points brought a sigh of relief to his fake football managers 

4. Trey McBride (NC) Top 4 at the position this year using any measuring stick and still has zero receiving TDs for the year 

TWO-TIER DROP

5. David Njoku (+4) Jameis is unleashing the beast 

6. Mark Andrews (+2) Too many Fantasy Football managers lacked patience with him this year

7. Johnu Smith (-1) Turning out to be the very best value at the position in fake football this year

8. Dallas Goedert (-1) Might be his last time on this list as he heads to IR

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9. Evan Engram's (+3) Offense is holding him back too many weeks

10. Zach Ertz (NC) The second-best value at TE in fake football this year

11. TJ Hockenson (NC) Still playing his way back into shape

TWO-TIER DROP

12. Tucker Kraft (+4): Too many mouths to feed in Gb for him to rise higher than the Top 8

13. Cole Kmet (NC) Consistently inconsistent is the Cole way

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14. Cade Otton's (+1) Return of Evans will cap his upside for the rest of the season. 

15. Sam LaPorta (+2) Has turned into the best TD-dependent TE in fake football 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15: Kyle Pitts at 16th, Jake Ferguson at 20th, Dalton Kincaid at 21st 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football shortly. This is a live Beta Test, so consider that when using these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in Byemaggedon II this week!