Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Seventeen

Anyone who has listened to me on our podcast knows many of my forecasting concepts for Football originated from my previous work in handicapping horse races and forecasting. In weather forecasting, combining several elements to form an "Index" has proven very successful. In horse race handicapping integrating class, recent form, and speed a rating system helped me understand the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric with four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let us examine the consensus rating after week seventeen.

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (NC) Top rated in three of the four metrics used for this rating

2. Joe Burrow (NC) is The only Top Tier QB whose ADP was outside of the Top 6

3. Josh Allen (NC) is rated QB this season using only 2024 data

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4. Jayden Daniels (NC): Many folks forecast a decline, like CJ Stroud in his second year. Daniels is the MVP this year at 120, compared to 73 for Stroud as a rookie. 

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5. Jared Goff (+1) Will finish the year 10 spots better than ADP, making him one of the best values.

6. Jaylen Hurts (1) Dropped two tiers from last season 

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7. Patrick Mahomes (NC): Will the Chiefs afford all those defensive pieces next season, or will they need him to be Superman more often? 

8. Baker Mayfield (NC) Rated QB3 using just 2024 data

9. Will Sam Darnold (NC) stay in Minnesota next season or go to the highest bidder? 

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10. Brock Purdy (+2) Low-end QB1 is how he was drafted and turned out this season.

11. Tua Tagliavoa (-1) When healthy, he is one tier higher in weekly value 

12. Bo Nix (+2): Is finishing Top 12 a compliment to Nix or an indictment on the rest of the position? 

13. Jordan Love (-2) Faded down the stretch but is a solid QB2 in Superflex formats.

TWO-TIER DROP

14. Justin Herbert's (+5) Drop in the rushing game has led to more volume down the stretch.

15. Kyler Murray (+1) is a very average fantasy quarterback without higher rushing totals.

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16. Caleb Williams (-1) If Bears fans consider this a bust of a year for the rookie, they don’t deserve a good QB ever 

17. Russell Wilson (NC) Turned into a game manager in real football, which is not desirable for fake football results at the QB position. 

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18. Geno Smith's (NC) 15 INTs for the season leaves his future in doubt

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19. Anthony Richardson (+1) Took a step backward as a passer in year two

20. Joe Flacco (NEW) Will be in demand as a solid backup for some teams next season

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21. Aaron Rodgers (+1) Father Time is undefeated 

22. Drake Maye (-1) Lack of playmakers in this offense makes it hard to rate the rookie’s upside.

23. CJ Stroud (+1) The most disappointing pick at QB versus ADP this year 

24. Matthew Stafford (+1) Has not looked like his old self since he got both of his top WRs back

25. Derek Carr (+1) Probably just good enough to survive another year as a starter in 2025

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 25: NONE 

RB Position

1. Bijan Robinson (+3) Might be in consideration for RB1 in Dynasty formats

2. Josh Jacobs (NC): The best value at RB for the Top 10 drafted players at the position

3. Derrick Henry (NC) Should be a great value in drafts again next year 

4. Jahmyr Gibbs (+1) Might be in consideration for RB2 in Dynasty formats

5. De’Von Achane (-4) Has some impressive splits in performance with and without Tua

6. Saquon Barkley (NC) Gained over 2000 on the ground when he never hit the 1500 mark previously

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7. Kyren Williams (NC) The consensus was that Kyren was right despite many analysts being wrong. 

8. Alvin Kamara (NC): Could you imagine how great he would have been with a complete offense?

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9. Joe Mixon (NC) Struggled down the stretch for the Fantasy Football playoffs.

10. Chase Brown (NC) correctly answered, “Who will be the next Kyren?” 

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11. James Conner (NC) Fell in some drafts to be my RB3 with a Top 11 finish 

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12. Breece Hall (NC): The incompetence of the Jets' offense held him back this season. 

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13. Jonathon Taylor (+5) If fantasy football teams drafting him survived to make the playoffs, they quickly swept their playoffs for a championship. 

14. Kenneth Walker (-1). The only injuries that kept him from being a solid RB1 this season were the following:

15. James Cook (-1) has dramatically increased TDs this season. Can he keep up that pace next year? 

16. Bucky Irving (+3) Loved his playmaking skillset during draft season, and he rewarded his believers in fake football this year. 

17. David Montgomery (-2) Injury was the only thing that dropped him out of the Top 12

18. Aaron Jones (-2) Had a solid year, but next season is a mystery on several levels.

19. Chuba Hubbard (-2) Could lose some volume next season 

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20. Rachaad White (NC) Should continue to lose volume next season

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21. Najee Harris (+3) Lacks the consistency to be an RB to target for your fake football teams.

22. Rhamondre Stevenson (-1) Ball security could cost him a starting role next season 

23. Tony Pollard (NC) Tyjae Spears looks more dynamic, but with that offense, it’s hard to tell.

24. D’Andre Swift (+1) One of my worst predictions at the RB position this season 

25. JK Dobbins (NEW) Top 15 talent when healthy 

26. Brian Robinson (-4) Seemed to earn a spot in the Coach’s doghouse down the stretch. 

TWO-TIER DROP

27. Travis Etienne (-1): I thought he was the most overpriced RB during the draft season, and he finishes 20 spots worse than ADP.

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28. Zach Charbonnet (+1) Hard to decide which SEA RB is the guy to have on your roster for the future

29. Tyrone Tracy (-1), a Rookie, could be vulnerable to another young player with more all-around skills.

30. Rico Dowdle (-3) Volume was his road to success as a viable Flex play this season. 

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31. Kareem Hunt (-1) Once the volume split happened in KC, his value plummeted 

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32. Isiah Pacheco (-1) It will be interesting to see how cheap you can get him next season.

33. Jerome Ford (NC) Should have a nice role as a backup RB next season

34. Ray Davis (NC) Dynamic player can do everything that the starter can do

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35. Tank Bigsby (-3) Ball security might hold him back in the future

36. Ameer Abdulah (+1) Volume has made him Fantasy Football viable down the stretch 

37. Javonte Williams (-1) His days are numbered in Denver

38. Tyjae Spears (+1) Could be a rising value next season with more volume and better offense

39. Raheem Mostert (-4) Father Time is catching up with him

40. Alexander Mattison (-2) His finish in the Top 40 shows how thin the position is right now

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 40: NONE 

WR Position

1. Ja’Marr Chase (NC) The undisputed best WR in Fantasy Football since the Bengal defense is awful and requires them to score over 35 to win

2. Justin Jefferson (NC) Has seen his upside diminish slightly with the improvement in the Vikings’ defense.

TWO-TIER DROPS

3. Amon Ra St Brown (NC) Could become a massive value in next season’s drafts.

4. Malik Nabers (+1) Incredible rookie season with a mish-mash at QB 

5. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) Showed how much of a warrior he is playing with a bad shoulder

6. AJ Brown (NC) Should be back in double-digit TDs next season

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7. Puka Nacua's (+4) QB situation in LA would be the only thing keeping him from the Top 3

8. Mike Evans's (+2) Double-digit TDs in four of the last five seasons are excellent consistency.

9. Brian Thomas Jr (-2) If Trevor Lawrence comes back healthy, he could be the best of the 24 WR class

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10. Nico Collins (-2) If Stroud returns to last year’s form, then Collins is capable of Top 5

11. Tyreek Hill (+3): Is Father Time starting to catch up with the Cheetah? 

12. Davante Adams (-3) Looked like he still has something left in the tank

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13. DeVonta Smith (+4), a Dynamic playmaker, could be even better next season

14. DJ Moore (+1): Not sure what that Bears’ offense will look like next year

15. Tee Higgins (+5): Will he stay or go? Will that be good or bad for his fake football value? 

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16. Terry McLaurin (-3) Could be even scarier next season if they find another playmaker.

17. Garret Wilson's (--1) Huge jump in targets this season could be a positive sign for the future.

18. Cooper Kupp (-6) Three straight games under 6 PPR points for the first time in his career

19. Ladd McConkey (+3): If this kid stays healthy, he could be Top 5 in the future. 

TWO-TIER DROP

20. Keenan Allen (-1) Only 33rd best based on 2024 data alone

21. Zay Flowers (-3) If this team had to pass more, he could be Top 10, but Ravens are not likely to need to pass more in the foreseeable future

22. Jaxon Smith Njigba (-1) Depending on what SEA does at QB, he could be Top 10 next year

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23. Jordan Addison's (+2) big-play ability would make him a valuable target in the first three WR leagues.

24. Jerry Jeudy (+4) Curious about what his upside would be with an outstanding QB

25. Jakobi Meyers (-1) Has always been a solid Flex starter, no matter who plays QB.

26. Drake London (-3) Drafted as a bottom WR1 and ended up a Flex starter 

27. Jameson Williams (+5) Top 15 in BEST Index this season 

28. Courtland Sutton (-2) Was a massive value versus ADP this season 

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29. DK Metcalf (-2) Losing volume to JSN dropped him outside the Top 20 by any measure

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30. Calvin Ridley (+1) was Drafted as a Flex starter and gave you an OK performance in the Flex position.

31. Adam Thielen (+6) Great value ended up on many winning championship teams in fake football.

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32. Deebo Samuel (-3) One of the biggest flops versus ADP this season 

33. Jayden Reed (-3) Started the season strong before sustaining a minor injury

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34. Xavier Worthy (+9) Posted an MVP index of 167 during the 3-week fantasy football playoffs.

35. George Pickens (-2) Will his bad attitude hold him back? 

36. Jayden Waddle (NC) Was drafted as a solid WR2 and finished as a roster clogger on your bench. 

37. Khalil Shakir (-3) Just doesn’t have that chemistry with one of the Top 3 QBs in the league

38. Jauan Jennings's (NC) Return of Aiyuk next season and the development of Pearsall could send him to fake football obscurity. 

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39. Josh Downs (-4) The good news is that he has become Richardson's favorite target. The lousy news is that Richardson hasn’t been good enough throwing the ball yet. 

40. Marvin Harrison Jr (NC) did not have a bad rookie season but was drafted to have a Ja’Marr Chase-like season. 

The top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 40 include Chris Olave at 44th 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC) According to the MVP24 Index, only three better TE years in the last 7 seasons

2. Brock Bowers (NC): Amazing rookie who broke records with broken QBs throwing to him.

3. Travis Kelce (NC) Father Time is catching up with him, turning him into the 5th best TE based on 2024 data alone.

4. Trey McBride (NC) Only one receiving TD all season but one of only two TEs with an MVP24 over 100 this season 

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5. Mark Andrews (NC) started slowly but finished with 9 out of 10 double-digit PPR point games in complete games. 

6. David Njoku (NC) Only injuries kept him out of that 2nd tier by himself

7. Johnu Smith (NC): The most significant value at the TE position this season relative to ADP 

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8. Zach Ertz (+3) Old timer still looked great when healthy 

9. Sam LaPorta (+1) Slow start but finished with five straight double-digit PPR games 

10. TJ Hockenson (-1) Couldn’t handle the usual volume coming back from injury

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11. Evan Engram (-3) Injury was the only thing keeping him from the Top 6

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12. Tucker Kraft (NC) has Too many weapons for a low-passing volume team for him to be much higher. 

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13. Cade Otton (NC) Kept that Bucs’ passing game going after Godwin's injury

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14. Hunter Henry (NC) Posted a big fat DONUT on fake football championship weekend.

15. Cole Kmet (NC) Too inconsistent to be more than a BEST BALL TE choice for me

16. Pat Freiermuth (+2) Would be a more dominant player on a team that knew how to use him.

17. Mike Gesecki (+5) is inconsistent but might be another great BEST BALL TE next season.

18. Isiah Likely (-2) The only surefire handcuff at TE in fake football

19. Tyler Conklin (+5) Could emerge as a Bye week replacement with better QB play

20. Kyle Pitts (NC) Finished strong enough to pull the old “Bullwinkle Trick” on everyone again in 2025 drafts, “This time for sure!” 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 20: NONE 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to create a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This process is a live Beta Test, but it showed some promising results in year one. I hope you enjoyed a profitable Fantasy Football season!