Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Eleven

Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Eleven

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week eleven. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which shows upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Joe Burrow (+1) The weakness of that Bengals defense means that Joe Cool needs to have his best games every week to have a chance to win.

2. Lamar Jackson (-1) Could not figure out a tough Steelers defense

3. Josh Allen (NC) Wasn’t at his most productive level in fake football but carried his team to a win over the Chiefs

4. Jalen Hurts (NC) Last of the Elite Four in Fantasy Football this season at the QB position 

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5. Brock Purdy (NC): There is the equivalent of a three-tier drop to QB5 right now

6. Jordan Love (NC) Had some ups and downs against a tough Bears defense but got the win in real football and a decent score in fake football. 

7. Patrick Mahomes (NC): His Back Class keeps him in this tier, and he hasn’t had a super lousy game yet.

8. Jared Goff (+2) Huge game when the Lions never let off the gas bumps Goff up to this tier, but his home/away splits are still large.

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9. Baker Mayfield (-1) Hopefully gets Evans back after the BYE week

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10. Jayden Daniels (-1) is a Very impressive rookie who has led the colossal turnaround for the Commanders

11. Jameis Winston (+10) is Another big game in a losing effort but could be a tremendous fake football addition for the rest of the year.

12. Trevor Lawrence (NC): Will he be shut down for the season with the Jags going nowhere fast?

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13. Justin Herbert (+9) The Chargers are opening up their offense, and that makes him a huge value for the rest of the fake football season

14. Sam Darnold (+1) A bit too inconsistent to rise much higher in fantasy football ratings

15. Bo Nix (+8) is another impressive rookie who has a solid floor and a good rushing ability. 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 Kyler Murray at 16th, Anthony Richardson at 20th, CJ Stroud at 21st 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC): One lousy game wasn’t enough to dethrone the King, but now shares a tier with two other great RBs

2. Bijan Robinson (+1) The inconsistent QB play for the Falcons could hurt his value.

3. Saquon Barkley (-1) They said he would lose too many goal-line carries to Hurts…

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4. Joe Mixon (+3) Closing fast over the last two furlongs, look for him to dash the top 3

5. Kyren Williams (-3) is Still not losing touches to the rookie, but the passing game has taken over.

6. Alvin Kamara (-2) is the only skilled position player who can stop the Saints, and people can’t stop him. 

7. De’Von Achane (-1) The return of Tua has helped this talented second-year RB

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8. Jahmyr Gibbs (NC) is Right for an RB, giving up many TDs to his teammate. 

9. Josh Jacobs (NC) Lacks the upside to challenge the Top 7 but living up to his ADP

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10. Breece Hall (+1) His value could fade if his QB joins a monastery. 

11. Ken Walker (-1) is still getting the bulk of the touches for the Seahawks, and we expect that to stay the same down the stretch.

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12. Chase Brown (NC) Won the job outright, but fantasy football analysts who didn’t like him will claim the Moss injury is why he did well.

13. Christian McCaffrey (+2) is Playing his way into shape just in time for the fake football playoffs, and the 49ers can’t afford to rest him.  

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14. David Montgomery (+3): When was the last time the Lions failed to score a rushing TD? 

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15. James Conner (-1) is Back from the Bye, and it will be interesting to see if the rookie gets more work down the stretch.

16. Austin Ekeler (+2) Injury to B-Rob has shown that Ekeler still has something left.

17. Aaron Jones (-4) The injuries seem to be slowing him down a little bit 

18. James Cook (+2) Only gained 27 yards against the Chiefs but found the endzone twice

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19. Jonathon Taylor (-3) Having a running QB is taking fantasy football points away from JT

20. D’Andre Swift (+1) Even on his bad days, he can break a big run and bail his fake football managers out just about the time they regretted starting him

21. Chuba Hubbard (-2) Faces a tough defense off the bye week but still a solid RB2 or flex play

22. Rhamondre Stevenson (NC) Hasn’t been spectacular but hasn’t been bad either, and right now, is ranked equal to his ADP

23. Brian Robinson (+1) Loses some volume, but this offense is solid, and he is still the goal-line guy when he is healthy. 

24. JK Dobbins (+1) Chargers passing more, which is capping his upside along with losing some volume to Gus the Bus

25. Tony Pollard (--2) is Doing well, considering how blah this offense has been most of the time.

26. Najee Harris (+2) Splits the volume too much to be much higher ranked than he is now.

27. Richard White (+2) Returns from Bye healthier, but which RB gets more touches is a mystery.

28. Isiah Pacheco (-1) Returns from injury this week but will probably be brought along with caution.

29. Tyrone Tracey (+2): An exciting rookie could sometimes struggle with the quarterback switch.

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30. Jordan Mason (NC) is Waiting for someone below to knock him out of the Top 30, but it isn’t worth starting with CMC back.

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Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: Travis Ettienne at RB32nd 

WR Position

1. Justin Jefferson (NC) is still at the top, but two ordinary weeks have allowed WR2 to join him in the tier.

2. Ja’Marr Chase (NC): Two game-winning performances in a row have him knocking on the door for the top spot.

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3. Amon Ra St Brown (+2) The fact the Lions don’t seem to back off helps his upside even in easy matchups

4. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) This offense is trying the patience of one of the top WRs in the league

5. Malik Nabers (-1) Top rookie’s future production is a mystery with the change at QB.

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6. Cooper Kupp (+2) Looks like the good old Little Cooper and works well with Nacua

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7. AJ Brown's (NC) Game script can hurt his upside, as the Eagles' defense has improved so much that the offense doesn’t need to score 35 to win.

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8. Nico Collins (-2) Was eased back in his first week back, but inconsistent QB play could hurt his value from now on into the fake football playoffs.

9. Garret Wilson (NC): His value could plummet if his QB suddenly decides to join Elon with the Department of Government Efficiency instead of finishing the season

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10. Tee Higgins (+10) is Playing great when he is healthy and auditioning for that huge contract. 

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11. Davante Adams (+4) His Back Class has him leading the way in a 12-player tier, but he could fall to the bottom in the weeks ahead.

12. Zay Flowers (+7): His considerable play ability comes with the occasional game where he doesn’t get enough plays to be in the Top 12

13. Brian Thomas (-3) Talented rookie will fade fast if Lawrence is done for the season.

14. DK Metcalf (+3) Still the top WR for the Seahawks when he is healthy

15. Tyreek Hill (+3) Injuries have slowed him down, but his speed can still get it done on any given Sunday

16. Mike Evans (-3) Hopefully returns from injury this week and could move back up to the top 10 by the end of the season

17. Devonta Smith (-3) Game script is dropping the value of the Eagles WR2

18. Deebo Samuel (-2) is Still waiting for that big game streak he is famous for producing 

19. Jayden Reed (-8) Doesn’t look like the same WR we saw in the first four games of the season; the injuries are adding up 

20. Terry McLaurin (-8) Teams know that double teaming Scary Terry is a solid option with the lack of other WRs on the Commanders

21. DJ Moore (+1) Inconsistent QB play is limiting his upside, but he is still the top WR on the roster

22. Puka Nacua (+7) Don’t look now, but it appears he is healthy and on his way to the Top 10

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23. Josh Downs (NC) The top target for any QB of the Colts right now

24. Jaxon Smith Njigba (+6) is Having an excellent second season and will be Top 12 material next season for sure

25. George Pickens (NC): I expected to see more 50/50 balls from Russ, but the conservative game plan is limiting his upside

26. Drake London (-5) Has so much talent but continues to underperform expectations

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27. Khalil Shakir (-1) Could be developing into the most trusted WR for Josh Allen.

28. Jakobi Meyers (-4) Wasn’t a sexy pick in drafts this year but has been a solid WR2 or Flex play all season regardless of the QB play.

29. Calvin Ridley (-1) Starting to look like the old Calvin at times

30. Marvin Harrison Jr (-3) The talented rookie is having an OK season, but fantasy football managers drafted him to be a top-10 stud 

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Chris Olave at 36th and Jaylen Waddle at 48th 

TE Position

1. Brock Bowers (+2) Each year asks, “How many elite TEs will there be? “The answer is THREE, and the top dog is a rookie. 

2. George Kittle (-1) missed a game due to injury, which dropped him one spot. 

3. Travis Kelce (-1) Scored fewer than 5 points in each game, which Taylor Swift missed this year.

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4. Trey McBride (NC): Not quite as good as the Top 3, but a clear tier break to the rest

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5. Taysom Hill (+9): The lack of WRs with the Saints increased his use, and he was up to the task

6. Dallas Goedert (+1) One of the best values at the position this season

7. David Njoku (+2) Came back from his injury issues in peak form

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8. Mark Andrews (-3) His lack of consistency is most likely due to lingering issues with his past injuries, which will hurt him for the rest of the season but make him a bargain in 2025

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9. Johnu Smith (+10) Consistently inconsistent this year but has two huge games

10. Evan Engram (-4) Misses Trevor Lawrence as much as the Jaguar fans do

11. Cade Otton (+2): Can he continue with the big games with Evans back? 

12. Zach Ertz (+3) Commanders being in the hunt for a division title will keep him on the field all season

13. TJ Hockenson (-5) They are working him back very slowly

14. Cole Kmet (-3) And now you see why I liked Kmet so much in Best Ball but not in Redraft

15. Kyle Pitts (-3) It’s perplexing how someone with so much size and athletic ability can get completely lost in an offense

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15: Sam LaPorta at 17th, Dalton Kincaid at 19th, Jake Ferguson at 20th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to create a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This process is a live beta test, so remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in Byemageddon 1 this week.