Who had the BEST season? 

Who had the BEST season?

One of the worst ways to grade players in Fantasy Football every season is by total points scored. This total point process tells us who stayed healthy for the most games but not who was most valuable. Points per Game process seems better, but a few big or lousy games can skew that average over a small number of games.

Both methods also grade the season as one 17-game lump, but that is not how Fantasy Football is played. Points are awarded every week, and matchups are decided every week. That's why we need more weekly statistical tools in Fantasy Football.

My Weekly Values and MVP Index are my way of looking at Fantasy Football, but both remove injuries from the equation. These metrics must still determine who was more valuable in any given year. Introducing the BEST index, which gets us closer to the player value concept for weekly analysis.

Introducing BEST

Three things can happen every week with every player, and these three different outcomes will affect your success in Fantasy Football.

1)      A player can have a great game.

2)      A player can have an average game.

3)      A player can have a poor game.

Suppose we count how many times a player had a great game and every time a player beat a historic median of points. In that case, we know how much that player helped you in Fantasy Football, especially in the Best Ball format, where a lousy game doesn't count against us. When calculating the BEST index, I used the same historical median for RB, WR, and TE so we can view "Weekly Value" for our Flex starting position.

One point is assigned each time a player hits or exceeds 10 PPR points at RB, WR, or TE, and one more point is assigned each time a player hits 20 PPR points. A "Perfect" BEST index would be 34 points, and the worst BEST index score would be 0. Separate values are assigned for QB. Let's look at the BEST players for 2023 at each position.

++ Professor's Addition. I took Dennis's Best metrics and generated a Box and Whisker diagram to "see" the population for each position. I then colorized the list with Elite in green or blue and Weak players noted in red. 

Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were QB1 and QB2 in my pre-season forecast for 2023, and they were the top 2 QBs by hitting your score sheet more often than any other QB. Based on their ADP, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Brock Purdy might have been the BEST value performers for 2023. Lamar Jackon and Patrick Mahomes could have lived up to their ADP. When graded with BEST, rookie sensation CJ Stroud and Baker Mayfield had the same impact on your Fantasy Football teams last season.

Last season, using my other weekly value tools, I forecasted Christian McCaffrey to be the safest first-round pick at RB, and he exceeded even my lofty expectations. CMC was over 82% of a perfect BEST score! Despite playing for a below-average offense and returning from a severe injury, Breece Hall was second in BEST and the only RB to score 20 or more. Bijan Robinson had a fantastic rookie season but was tied in BEST with less expensive ADP guys at RB like Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Raheem Mostert. Rachaad White and Kyren Williams were also great values at RB last season.

 The four BEST at the position last season were Tyreek Hill, Cee Dee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and surprise rookie Puka Nacua, with BEST values of 20 or more. During the 2023 Fantasy Football draft season, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were close in ADP, and they finished tied in BEST at 16 each. Mike Evans was one of the BEST values last year when you compare his result of WR5 in BEST to his ADP.

TJ Hockenson beat out Travis Kelce last Season as TE1 using the BEST index. Despite an injury-plagued season that slowed him down, Kelce was still second-best at the position but not even close to being the best value versus ADP. George Kittle, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and rookie Sam LaPorta were only 1 point behind Kelce in using the BEST index. Trey McBride wasn't even the top TE on his team at the start of the season but had a BEST index that was only 3 points behind the TE1 Hockenson. 

Conclusion

The saying "Availability is the Best Ability" gets overused in Fantasy Football because if a player is missing for a few games, you can replace him in your lineup. However, a concept like the BEST index, which shows which players impacted your Best Ball score sheet the most times in a season, can be a valuable tool for grading players every week. More research is being done to determine the best way to use the BEST data for forecasting future seasons.