Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Fourteen 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several key ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week fourteen. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Joe Burrow (+1) Top 3 are close, but Joe Cool gets the edge because his defense is lousy.

2. Lamar Jackson (-1): Don’t look now, but the real NFL MVP might be slipping away.

3. Josh Allen (NC) Without Josh, this might be a 0.500 team

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4. Jalen Hurts (NC) is Not having his best year, but 13 Tush Push TDs keep him this high.

TWO-TIER DROP

5. Jayden Daniels (NC) has already been running for QB1 in Dynasty formats.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (+2) If he can stay healthy, he will be responsible for many fake football championships this season. 

7. Patrick Mahomes (-1) Disappointment if you grabbed him at QB1, but even more disappointing if you dropped him several weeks ago

8. Jared Goff (+2) The home/away splits can be a problem for fake football managers

9. Jamies Winston's (NC) Browns defense took a huge step back, which has helped Jameis in fake football since taking over.

10. Baker Mayfield (+1) QB3 in weekly value metrics when you only look at this season

11. Sam Darnold (+2) Maybe that Minnesota Coach is a QB Whisperer? 

12. Jordan Love (-5) The occasional bad games keep him from gaining on this list. 

13. Brock Purdy (-1) Has lost two of his top weapons, which will hurt his value.

TWO-TIER DROP 

14. Bo Nix (NC:) Remember when so many Fantasy Football analysts scoffed at that pick and had him start from week one? Good times! 

15. Kyler Murray (+2): Has this been an off-year for him, or what can we expect from a real offense? 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15: Anthony Richardson at 21st, CJ Stroud at 23rd 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC) The King is still the King, but the top tier is growing 

2. Bijan Robinson (+1) Might be the RB1 in Dynasty format right now

3. De’Von Achane (-1) Might be too “Tua Dependent” ever to be RB1 in Dynasty format

4. Saquon Barkley (NC) Has lost 13 TDs to his QB and is still RB4 in weekly value

5. Josh Jacobs (NC): Remember when so many Fantasy Football analysts said he was a bad Top 10 pick this season? Good times!

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6. Kyren Williams (+2): Imagine how much higher he would be on this list if he weren’t their punt returner. (Sarcasm font engaged) 

7. Joe Mixon (-1) Texans would be struggling even more without him this year

8. Jahmyr Gibbs (-1) The volume split near the goal line hurts his weekly value by about three spots

9. Alvin Kamara (NC) Has continued to produce as the rest of the offense falls apart

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10. Chase Brown (+1) The best value at RB in drafts this season 

11. Breece Hall (-1) Will he or will he not be healthy for the Fantasy Football playoffs? 

TWO-TIER DROP

12. James Conner (+3) Rookie hasn’t cut into his workload as much as he feared

13. Ken Walker (-1) Will he or will not be healthy for the Fantasy Football playoffs? 

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14. David Montgomery (-1) His cap hit doubles next year but should still be an affordable option

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15. Aaron Jones (+1): My only concern with him is staying healthy, and so far, so good this season

16. Bucky Irving (-2) Will he or not be healthy for the Fantasy Football playoffs?

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17. Chuba Hubbard (+4) Injury to the rookie makes him a solid play for fake football playoffs.

18. Tony Pollard (+5) is Performing better than he should on an underperforming offense.

19. James Cook (-2) If you can explain the down weeks, please let me know

20. Najee Harris (NC): Not losing as much volume to Warren as expected

21. Rachaad White (+8) Had a great week when Bucky got hurt

22. Jonathon Taylor (+2) Not having a bad season, just not having a good enough season to justify his RB5 draft position this season

23. Rhamondre Stevenson (-1) Living up to his ADP, but I expected even more 

24. Brian Robinson (+1) Injury to Ekeler should increase his volume in an excellent offense 

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25. D’Andre Swift (+1) Now we understand why the Lions moved on so Swift-ly

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26. Tyrone Tracy (+6): The offense is hot garbage, yet he continues showing value.

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27. Rico Dowdle (+8) Proving once again that volume is king at the RB position 

28. Travis Etienne (+2): Will he or will he not be healthy for the Fantasy Football playoffs?

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29. Nick Chubb (-1) Will probably be better next season

30. Isiah Pacheco (+1) Bringing him along nice and slow, but looked like his old self last week 

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: NONE 

WR Position

1. Will Ja’Marr Chase (NC) have one or two of his spike weeks during the fake football playoffs? 

2. Justin Jefferson (NC) Defenses try to stop him but can’t 

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3. Cee Dee Lamb (+2): Will he or will he not be healthy for the Fantasy Football playoffs?

4. Amon Ra St Brown (-1) has been Super solid all season and hasn’t even scored at the expected rate yet.

5. Cooper Kupp (+2) It’s rare for him to have a bad week

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6. Malik Nabers (-2) The issues at QB are starting to affect this talented rookie.

7. AJ Brown (-1) The Eagles no longer need to score 40 to win 

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8. Tyreek Hill (+1) Had his first back-to-back 20-point games of the season 

9. Nico Collins (-1) Should be a strong force for the fantasy football playoffs

10. Puka Nacua (+4) Might be taking over as the WR1 on his team

TWO-TIER DROP

11. Davante Adams (+5): Not sure I have much confidence down the stretch in the Jets’ offense

12. DJ Moore (-1) The rookie WR is starting to get a solid rapport with the rookie QB.

13. Mike Evans (-3) Could he be better with Godwin as an equal threat? 

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14. Terry McLaurin (-1) The rookie QB has been much better than many expected

15. Garret Wilson (NC) Losing some target share to Adams

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16. Brian Thomas (+2) Unknown how bad his performance will drop with worse QB play

17. Zay Flowers (NC): If the Ravens needed to pass more often, his stock would be rising 

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18. Tee Higgins (-6) Hard to be a stud when your team has the best WR in the game 

TWO-TIER DROP

19. Devonta Smith (+2): Not sure you can count on him every week during the fake football playoffs

20. Jakobi Meyers (NC) Seems to be QB-proof as a solid WR2 player in fantasy football.

21. Jaxon Smith Njigba (+1) Looking more and more like a Top 10 value at WR

22. DK Metcalf (-3) Starting to lose some target share to JSN

23. Keenan Allen's (NC) Offense is not strong enough to support three WRs in fake football

24. Ladd McConkey (NC): Solid rookie season, only marred by injury concerns

25. Jordan Addison (+8) Coming off another big week, and that passing offense can support 2 WRs

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26. Drake London (+1) His fantasy football managers are satisfied once they look at how bad Pitts has been again this season.

27. Khalil Shakir (+7) Starting to emerge as a solid weekly value threat

28. Courtland Sutton (-3) Has the significant play ability to be a league winner down the stretch

29. Jauan Jennings (+9) Showing he is very talented but lots of mouths to feed in that 49er offense

30. Jerry Jeudy (NC) Injury to Tillman and the trade of Cooper has allowed him to emerge 

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Deebo Samuel at 31st, Marvin Harrison at 37th, Jaylen Waddle at 35th, Chris Olave at 41st 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (+1): The top two have cleared themselves from the rest of the field at TE

2. Brock Bowers (-1) Having the most outstanding rookie season for a TE ever

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3. Travis Kelce (NC) is Still getting it done, which might delay his full-time dance career.

4. Trey McBride (NC) TE4, despite not having a receiving TD yet this season

TWO-TIER DROP

5. David Njoku (NC): His injury will hurt many fantasy football teams down the stretch

6. Johnu Smith (+1) Best value at TE this season among the veterans

7. Mark Andrews (-1) Still solid but not at the elite level this season

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8. Evan Engram (+1) is Another player whose injury will significantly impact fake football playoffs.

9. TJ Hockenson (+2) Should be a great value next season 

10. Tucker Kraft (+2) is a Solid starter in fake football, but volume prevents a much higher rating

11. Zach Ertz (-1) Success of the Commanders has helped keep the rookie off the field

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12. Sam LaPorta (+4) has started to show some of that form from last year over the previous few weeks.

13. Cade Otton (+2) Picked up the slack as the Bucs suffered injuries at WR position. 

14. Cole Kmet (-1) Consistently inconsistent with so many WRs getting targeted

15. Hunter Henry (+3) Emerging as a solid substitute for some of the higher-rated injured TEs 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15: Kyle Pitts at 16th, Jake Ferguson at 21st, Dalton Kincaid at 18th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football's near future. This process is a live Beta Test, so remember to take that into consideration when you use these ratings for decision-making. Good luck in your fantasy football playoffs this week.