Yes, Consistency Does Matter in Fantasy Football
We have reached that time of the year when different Fantasy Football analysts will wow you with statistical studies that show that consistency doesn’t exist in Fantasy Football. Every hypothesis against consistency being critical in Fantasy Football has at least two issues.
First, they use year-end statistics to show that consistency doesn’t matter or even exist. Fantasy Football is a weekly game; the weekly performance matters most. Second, they don’t define the word consistency. Like many terms in Fake Football, we all have our ideas of what each term means. But if you are going to wave your arms around saying something is worthless, you better precisely define what it is and why it doesn’t matter.
Today, I will explain what consistency means to me and why it matters not only in fantasy football but also in giving you an advantage against the competition.
What Consistency Ain’t
When some Fantasy Football analysts set out to prove that Fantasy Football is a myth, they show you all kinds of sophisticated statistical tools and explanations to show that consistency doesn’t exist in Fantasy Football statistics. They will say, “Look at the last five weeks of the most consistent player in the league, Christian McCaffrey. CMC scored 13, 25, 41, 16, and 22, while his PPG for the entire season was 24.4. That’s a variance of +16 to -11, so even the most consistent player in the league is that inconsistent.”
That view is the wrong way to measure consistency in Fantasy Football. Yes, statistics in Fantasy Football can be chaotic, but if you grade each player against a base point total every week, you quickly see which players are more consistent than others. If you grade CMC versus the historical median of points scored at RB over the past six years, his rating will be much higher than others. That’s an advantage every week in Fantasy Football.
They Show Consistency Doesn’t Matter with Statistics
One of the more intelligent folks on Fantasy Football, Twitter, recently showed the world using statistics that consistency doesn’t matter. He showed a graph of average points per game for winning and losing teams in Fantasy Football and their variance throughout the season. He also showed their winning percentage and compared the win/loss record of the highly variable teams to the more consistent teams, which showed no statistically significant difference. This finding allowed him to conclude that consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football.
Two significant things could be improved with this concept. First, he used year-end data for a game that was decided every week with matchups. Second, he assumed every team was built similarly because he didn’t know whether team owners were drafting based on consistency. It would have been better to look at the average number of points it took to win a matchup and see how often a team consistently exceeded that mark.
Defining Consistency in Fantasy Football
My definition of “Consistency in Fantasy Football” might differ from others you have seen. One of the most significant issues in fantasy football is that people use terms without defining them. What does “Upside” mean? What does “Value” mean? What does “Consistency” mean? If you ask 100 Fantasy Football players for their definition of each term, it might surprise you how often they vary.
I define “Consistency” as “How Often a Player Hits a Specific Number or Higher” weekly. A player has three possible weekly results that can affect your Fantasy Football team. They can help your team win, make your team lose, or keep your team in the matchup. If I grade how often Player X scores ten or more points in Points per Reception scoring versus everyone else at his position, I have established a “Consistency Rating” for that player. It doesn’t matter if he scores 40 points more or 40 points less; he gets a percentage score for how often he reaches or exceeds that number. Using a historical median to establish that base threshold gives us valuable information about that player’s potential.
Why Consistency Matters When You Measure It Right
All my Weekly Tools in Fantasy Football can be considered consistency measures. My Weekly Values grade the consistent upside potential of players. My MVP Index looks at all three results to create one number to grade players. My BEST Index scores how often a player hits the score sheet for your Best Ball teams and how they usually significantly impact your weekly win or loss. My Consistency Rating just looks at how often a player exceeds that median threshold value expected. If you build a team of players that score well using these tools, you will have a roster of guys who outscore their competition most weeks. Also, you can spot vulnerable players on rosters and target their future replacements using these tools.
Statistical evidence shows that my Weekly Tools are better at predicting future outcomes than Year End Points or PPG, especially at certain positions. Since adopting Weekly Tools in Fantasy Football, I have had 14 consecutive winning seasons and a higher ROI. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so using weekly statistical tools to build your team makes sense. You can read more about each tool and how to use it in other articles on our website.
Conclusion
In Fantasy Football drafts, you must beat the consensus with enough picks to win the league and the prize pool. Consistency-based tools can be a big help in making that happen. Drafting for upside potential is a winning strategy, especially later in drafts and when those players show consistent upside.
Whenever you read work by your favorite analyst, make sure they define the terms they are using or ask them for their specific definition. When it comes to Fantasy Football Analysts who tell you that consistency doesn’t matter, usually it’s because they define the term differently than I have for you today. Consistency issues in Fantasy Football when you use the correct statistics to measure that term.