The NFL Draft and Fantasy Football

The actual NFL draft is coming up soon, and by now, you have probably seen around 127,891,503 ½ mock drafts. They all share one thing: They will miss around 80% of the picks! That’s why I don’t waste my time (or yours) with yet another mock draft. 

Instead, I look at the current NFL rosters before the draft to spot key landing positions. Last year, this led to the understanding that Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua were great guys to target, and some teams’ players were not worth investing in for Fantasy Football at their Average Draft Positions. I also missed some things, but if they come late in the Fantasy Football draft, they won’t hurt you. In this week's NFL draft, let’s look at which teams are the best targets for skill position players. 

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Arizona Cardinals

While every team needs extra depth at the running back position, the Cardinals have so many holes to plug on defense they can’t load up on too many offensive players in this draft. The one hole they need to fix on the offense is at the wide receiver position. This positional need would be a favorable landing position for Marvin Harrison Jr. 

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Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen threw for over 4300 yards last season, and only 611 receiving yards have returned for the 2024 season. While they added Curtis Samuel, who could be a flex play level WR in Fantasy Football, it’s almost a sure bet the Bills are taking a WR early this week, and that player will have excellent Fantasy Football value from day one. Don’t overlook Justin Shorter on this roster, though, as a last-pick selection in your Fantasy drafts. 

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Chicago Bears

The Bears could end their drought of never having a QB throw for over 4000 yards with their selection of Caleb Williams with the first pick. Their second first-round pick could also have instant Fantasy Football value if they grab a WR or Brock Bowers with that pick.

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Cincinnati Bengals

If you were impressed by the Zack Moss signing at RB, you might want to take up needlepoint as a hobby and leave Fantasy Football behind. The Bengals might also be in the market at WR if they deal Higgins on draft night. 

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Dallas Cowboys

Letting Tony Pollard go was a solid move for the Cowboys because he was an aging player who would be too expensive in the future. They are a prime target to be the landing position for the first RB taken in the draft late in the 2nd round, and that player instantly moves into the RB10-18 range in Fantasy Football. 

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Denver Broncos

The Broncos spend more time shopping for new uniforms than new players. When Zach Wilson and Josh Reynolds are your significant additions, you haven’t solved any problems. Getting rid of Jeudy will free up the opportunity for a better WR, and don’t be shocked if they also deal with Courtland Sutton. They could use help at every position, and those early-round picks should all have a chance to be productive in Fantasy Football as rookies. 

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Indianapolis Colts

If the Colts shore up some issues on defense and can have healthy seasons from Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, this team could be special. Adding another playmaker at TE, like Brock Bowers, could also have interesting ramifications for fantasy football.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have a WR room full of excellent second and third receivers but need a guy with target-hoarding ability. This ALPHA WR1 gap could be an instant WR1 landing position for one of the Top five WRs. 

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Kansas City Chiefs

Winning back-to-back Super Bowls usually means you don’t have that many needs, and your 32nd draft pick might make it challenging to get a huge-impact guy. However, with Rashee Rice’s legal issues, I would expect the Chiefs to add talent to that position and RB. Both players will have some attractive Fantasy Football value from day one. 

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Las Vegas Raiders

It’s still very possible that the Raiders will move all-world WR Davante Adams in a trade, which could add the WR spot to their draft needs. They will also be active in the RB market on day 2 or 3 and should draft their quarterback of the future, too. 

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Los Angeles Chargers

On paper, the departure of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams indicates that the Chargers will likely grab a WR early in the draft. But they have been used to playing without both guys, and Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston could continue to develop. I like Palmer, who could have a “Nico Collins-esque” breakout this year. The Chargers could be another excellent landing spot for TE Brock Bowers, and they will undoubtedly add an RB on day two or three.

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Minnesota Vikings

I can’t imagine the Vikings going into the 2024 season with Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens as their starting quarterback, so look for them to wheel and deal to get up high enough to grab JJ McCarthy or stand pat and grab Michael Penix. The rookie QB taken will have great weapons to work with on day one. 

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New England Patriots

It’s a new era in New England, which will mean many changes to last year’s woeful offense. While every position requires players, they will either grab a quarterback or make a trade and grab Brock Bowers and a starting WR. Look for them to add RB depth on day 2 or 3.

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New York Giants

Calling the Giants offense a dumpster fire would be an insult…to a dumpster fire! They patched the RB position with Singletary, and Eric Gray could get a chance, too. Their WR room needs an upgrade, too. They are solid at TE on paper, but when their guys stay healthy, Brock Bowers would be a nice grab here, too. Meanwhile, grabbing the QB of the Near Future makes sense, too!

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New York Jets

I miss the days when the draft was held in New York City because it was always entertaining to see the Jets’ fans boo every pick. Quite often, they were right to boo! Could you imagine the turnaround IF Arron Rodgers stays healthy and they add Brock Bowers as an offensive weapon?

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Heading into NFL Free Agency, the Steelers were the favorites to land Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. They ended up landing both! It would be hilarious to see them deal Wilson to another team that loses the rookie QB derby. Adding help at WR is very important, and that player would have some attractive Fantasy Football value. 

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Washington Commanders

Which QB the Commanders will pick with their first-round pick had gone back and forth between two players since the draft order was announced, and they sent Sam Howell out west. The only thing that has changed recently is for a 3rd name to be mentioned in the mix. It’s also possible they trade down and gain more draft capital to repair this club faster. Whoever they pick at quarterback becomes an interesting fantasy football player to target, depending on the eventual ADP.

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Finally, Time for the Draft

This DRAFT promises to be an exciting NFL Draft from its Fantasy Football impact perspective. Caleb Williams has been anointed as the second coming of Andrew Luck. Two to four other quarterbacks could be in a position to start during their rookie seasons, and two to three more guys in the position could gain a favorable landing position, too. 

The RB class is less predictable than last season, but there should be two or five guys who bring decent weekly value in Fantasy Football in their rookie season. The trouble is figuring out which two or five from a group of about eight to twelve guys with imperfect records are coming out of college. 

This WR class is super deep! The top 3 WRs appear to be “Can’t-Miss” prospects, with a larger group of 12-15 likely to result in 5-8 solid Fantasy Football contributors early in their careers. After the draft, check out the Science of Fantasy Football Podcast for more draft insight and for guys to target rookie Fantasy Football drafts that might be a little under the radar.