Nobody reading the title of this article has a clue who Atasoy is, and only a tiny percentage recognized the name Zenyatta. Atasoy isn't that Undrafted Free Agent that had some great touches in the Hall of Fame game, and Zenyatta isn't a sleeper rookie pick at TE in deep roster Dynasty Fantasy Football. Both are horses, and today: I will share a slight advantage I have when it comes to Fantasy Football; I grew up learning how to handicap horses.

OK, I hear you, "What in the wide world of sports does one-horse race handicapping have to do with Fantasy Football?' Both disciplines need a good game plan that deciphers past performances and understands how to apply that knowledge to the future. Let me take you around the track from Atasoy to Zenyatta to make you a more competent Fantasy Football player.

The Story of Atasoy

Not every excellent horse race story involves a famous racehorse like Secretariat. Atasoy was an obscure standard-bred horse competing in cheap claiming races on the Chicago Harness Racing circuit in the late 1970s. But he was a great example of one concept I learned following horse racing that applies yearly in Fantasy Football. Growing up, I was a data nerd, and my Dad took me to the horse races. We got Dad this remarkable book about Harness Racing Handicapping for Christmas one year that gave a numerical way to handicap races. While my Dad didn't put this info into action, I adapted this 10-year-old book to the current racing style. I got so good at handicapping harness races that my Dad's best friend, who ran a tout sheet at the track, put me to work every Summer.

Atasoy was a four-year-old horse competing against older horses. He also was starting from the outside, which was usually a problem at Arlington Park. But he had great late speed, and there were five early speed horses in the race, so that the pace would set up for a closer like Atasoy. He also got a vast driver switch to one of the best catch drivers at the meet. His odds were 55 to 1, and most dismissed him as an also-ran. I was even a little reluctant to put him on the top of the tip sheet and bet on him too. But I followed my process, and Atasoy won like a champion pulling away by open lengths after making a substantial last-to-first charge in the final 3/8ths of a mile and paying over $100 for a $2 win wager. My Dad knowing my ability, bet him his trifectas and won even more money! How does this lesson transfer to Fantasy Football?

Trust Your Process

Have you ever shown up at your home league draft in person and took a guy about 5-10 spots earlier than everyone expected? Do you remember the snickers and laughter? If you trust your process, you will cash in on a winner and get to razz everyone at next year's draft when you win your league with a collection of guys that other team managers avoided!

Players in the NFL Improve- Turn back the clock more than 30 years when I started playing Fantasy Football and the theory at the time was about the 3 rd year breakout at WR. Players were expected to develop slowly, but players always got better with age until they hit that magic number and started to decline. Atasoy was like a struggling rookie entering his second year who suddenly started showing that he was learning the game. Don't be afraid to bet on that rising star and be the first to catch a breakout

season.

The Story of Zenyatta

This racehorse story includes a famous racehorse; Zenyatta might have been the best female racehorse of all time. (Fans of Ruffian might argue with me about that statement) Most racehorses start at age two because there is so much money in stakes races for the younger horses. But Zenyatta only got to the racetrack for the first time in November of her 3-year-old season.

She only sold for $60,000 as a yearling in a sport where millions of dollars are auctioned on the youngsters. Zenyatta had a skin condition that made her look less than healthy. Because her ankles were also slight for a horse of her size, her trainer was slow getting her to the races. Once she got to the track, there was no stopping her, and she won 17 stakes races in a row, including 13 of them at the highest rating, before finally losing to the boys in the Breeders Cup Classic, where she finished 2nd by a head.

How does this transfer over to Fantasy Football?

Draft Capital Doesn't Always Matter- Zenyatta was the equivalent of an Undrafted Free Agent in football. Nobody expected much from her, yet her trainer knew what he had and developed her into a champion. Austin Ekeler is one of the best Fantasy Football RBs, but he was an undrafted free agent. Brock Purdy was Mister Irrelevant in his draft, yet he looked perfect as the starter. Invest in those "cheap rookies" in your Dynasty Fantasy Football drafts and be rewarded.

Missing Rookie Year is OK- We want instant success from our Fantasy Football players just like horse owners wish for an instant winner. But sometimes patience pays off in horseracing and Fantasy Football. Jameson Williams missed most of last year but should develop into an excellent WR once he returns from suspension. Justyn Ross missed his rookie year but has looked great in the KC Chiefs training camp. John Metchie missed last year for health reasons but will be ready to go this season. Have some patience in Dynasty Fantasy Football to stash those injured guys and let them develop before inserting them in your starting lineups.

Back Class in Fantasy Football

Handicapping horse races and forecasting Fantasy Football outcomes have many parallels. One great strategy in horse racing is looking for horses with "Back Class." This horse competed against much better competition than they appear in today. Maybe they won a few stakes races as a 3-year-old, and now, at five years of age, they are coming back from an injury and are competing against lesser horses. Meanwhile, the favorite in that allowance race has won his first two races against a maiden and then a non-winner of 2 race conditions.

The similarity in Fantasy Football is a player that, for whatever reason, had a terrible year the previous season. But two and three years ago, he was a Top 5 or Top 10 player. He is being drafted at an ADP of QB19 or WR37 right now, but you remember when he used to be great, and he should get the playing time he needs for excellent volume. This is the same as a talented older horse who used to be great but now finds a weak field and appears back in his ancient form. That racehorse goes off an excellent 5 to 1 or better odds, and his counterpart in Fantasy Football is a bargain at his ADP. Both will pay off as nice winners for their supporters.

Calvin Ridley- Back from suspension, he appears to be in a good situation with a potent offense and is also healthy. Turn back the clock to the 2020 season, and Ridley scored the 4 th most PPR points at WR. He had another Top 20 season the other year he stayed healthy. His ADP has increased to WR17. but with one of the best young QBs in the league, he could post a Top 10 season with his back class. Ridley is my 16th WR using my Weekly Values but could easily outperform that number by 10% which would put him in the Top 10.

Mike Gesecki- Last year was rough for Gesecki, with half the targets from the year before despite lining up for all 17 games. There was a massive change in the offensive scheme, and speedsters took over the targets for the new coach. This season he gets a chance to show if last year was a fluke playing for an offense that should be more of his style. I am not suggesting he will be an elite TE this season; my weekly values have him ranked 13th. But his ADP of TE23 shows you are getting great odds on him to play back to his back class this season, making him one of my favorite late-round picks in best ball.

Russell Wilson- Last year, the Denver Broncos gave up a ton of draft picks and gave Russ one of the most significant contracts in NFL history, but he was awful. Can we blame his performance on bad coaching or getting used to throwing in a new stadium? Eight years in a row, he was a Top 10 Fantasy QB and finished first in 2017. His current ADP of QB18 shows that many Fantasy Football managers don't trust Russ cooking this year, but Coach Sean Payton could bring the best out of him again. He ranks 10th in my Weekly Values with his back class.

DeShaun Watson- Owning Watson rubs some people the wrong way. This season people are believers in his back class because after an awful 2022 where Jacoby Brissett outperformed him, he is being drafted at QB9. People must believe in his back class which includes 3 Top 5 finishes in Fantasy Football. My weekly values have him ranked QB10 to QB17 because I am not convinced he is the same QB we saw back then, but I did apply his back class to his forecast.

It's 2 Minutes to Post

The 2023 fantasy football season is fast approaching. Over the years, I have learned many lessons at the horse race tracks that apply to fantasy football. Don't be afraid if your draft pick doesn't look like the perfect pedigree; he might be a champion like Zenyatta! Before you cut that player on your Dynasty Taxi squad, look to see if he gets some favorable changes like Atasoy: he might beat out some of those older guys for work and surprise you with excellent results.

Also, trust that back class for those cagey veterans that stubbed their toes last season; they might pay off significantly in best ball formats where you care more about big point weeks than consistency. Good luck with your Fantasy Football drafts, and check out my strategy articles and weekly value ratings coming this week.