Weekly Values, Consistency, and MVP Metrics for Week 10 Analysis
Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Nine
In fantasy football, too many players concentrate on total points, which can deceive us of the actual value of players in fake football. A few vast weeks can vault someone into the top 10 at a position in year-end stats or points per game. My goal with my statistical tools is to show the weekly value of a player by comparing their best games against their fellow players. While year-end points can tell us where we have been, my tools attempt to tell us where we might be going shortly and become more heavily weighted for the current season every week. Let’s take a look at this week’s data.
Defining Terms Used
Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool I created that combines the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football using a two-year data window. This metric is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player.
Consistency Rating- Lots of people say that consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game.
Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible outcomes each week that can affect the win/loss record of our team in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players.
Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be helpful when making trades to understand how much value you gain or drop at a position in any deal
QB Weekly Value
Joe Burrow has shaken off his early season injury and is now QB3, according to my weekly value data. The Top 2 continue to have an edge on the rest of the field, with Burrow and Lamar separating themselves in the second tier. Among the third tier, there is a clear difference in the MVP Index, with Jalen Hurts the clear top QB in that next group. CJ Stroud is having a remarkable rookie season and moves into that same tier with Hurts in Weekly Value but is behind with the MVP Index. Kyler Murray is expected to return to action this week and pencils in as the QB10.
RB Weekly Value
Achane is still on IR, and after him, it’s a clear top tier of 2 RBs with CMC and Ekeler. The following two have also distanced themselves from the pack in a clear second tier of 2 players with Gibbs and Henry. The subsequent tier division gets a little murky when you only look at Weekly Values, but when considering the MVP Index, that group is better defined. Leonard Fournette should be active this week, and with the Bills struggling to get a running game going, he might get more touches than expected. His Weekly Value could adjust quickly depending on his volume in his first week back. While the Weekly Value remains a solid tool to determine upside potential, it appears the MVP Index is doing an excellent job of evaluating a player’s effect on your win/loss chances for any given week.
WR Weekly Value
The current season for Davante Adams is an excellent illustration that while the Weekly Value is a great stat for determining back class for struggling players, the more recent performances must be factored in for a player’s current value this season. When you look at the data from Tyreek Hill over the past season and a half, it becomes even more remarkable that the Chiefs' defense could hold him under 65 yards, but eight catches still gave him a solid day in PPR scoring. Cee Dee Lamb was a WR I forecasted to have a nice rise in weekly value this year, and he is backing up that forecast with some solid games and has risen to WR7 after nine weeks of play this season. This week, I will break down my MVP Index into a 2023-only calculation showing this season’s hot players to watch down the stretch. That article will be coming out later in the week.
TE Weekly Value
There was another massive blow to this position in Fantasy Football this week, with Dallas Goedert suffering an injury likely to end his season for fake football purposes. Darren Waller was also moved to the IR and will miss at least the next four weeks, taking away another solid TE starter. Trey McBride was able to crack the Top 20 this week and could rise into the Top 12 now that Kyler Murray is back at QB. Similar to other positions, the MVP Index is doing an excellent job of separating players within a tier. Rookies Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are very close in Weekly Value, but the MVP Index gives LaPorta a clear edge. Meanwhile, Taysom Hill continues to get more snaps at TE, which adds to his value in addition to his wildcat carries, which has moved him up to TE4 this week.
Conclusion
Each week, my weekly values continue to be more heavily weighted for the 2023 season. My MVP Index and Consistency Ratings will continue to show the big picture from the 2021 season to the current year. Year-end points and even points per game can be very deceiving and, in their best cases, show us past performances of what already happened. My weekly tools attempt to offer up a player’s value for the future. While the MVP Index is still being beta-tested to determine flex starters this season, the results have been promising. Good luck this week!