Philosophically Speaking: A Fantasy Football Story at RB

The greatest thing about Fantasy Football is the variety of games available. For many years, back in the day, all you had was your primary Redraft league. Satisfying, but it could get stale if that’s all you ever played. Then, some inventive minds decided that a Keeper League was a great idea since you could keep some of your favorite players for multiple seasons. Then along came Dynasty Leagues, which let you pretend to be a genuine GM, albeit in Fake Football, and build a dynasty through trades or in the draft. The idea of Best Ball leagues emerged somewhere in a different Fantasy Football universe. These draft-and-forget-it leagues were attractive to people who love to draft too many teams but don’t have time to handle the week-to-week decisions of more than 20 leagues.

In recent years, leagues have been added with individual defensive players, and there is a type of league for everyone! It would be tedious to have vanilla ice cream; likewise, playing only one fantasy football format would be boring. Philosophically speaking, there isn’t a “harder” or “easier” format and, indeed, not a “better” format. Let’s look at some areas where the formats require a different strategy.

Editor’s Note: Unsure of what terms used by DMIC mean? Check the glossary at the end.

Basic Strategy Declaration

If anyone tells you there is only one preferred way to win in Fantasy Football, that person giving you advice hasn’t been playing long enough to watch strategy decisions evolve or is feeding you a line of bull. A few years ago, in a league against Fantasy Football analysts, I was in the 12th position in a 12-team redraft league. The banter before the draft was about who would be the first to take a QB and TE among people who constantly preach “Late QB” and “Streaming TE” strategies to their readers and podcast listeners. I said, “Any strategy can be a winning one,” and was mocked for that opinion in the chat. Since all the “Safe RBs” and “Value WRs” were gone by the 12th pick, I decided to open the draft with a QB and a TE to make a point. Grabbing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce at the one/two turn was against the grain in a so-called “Expert League.” I would only lose one game during the regular season and lose to the same guy in the playoffs when Alvin Kamara went off with his 5-TD game. The story's moral is that ANY strategy can win if executed in Fantasy Football in ANY format. The advice included in this article is just a general suggestion of methods that have worked well for me in many leagues in the past. Let’s look at RB for this season.

RB Strategy Differences Over Time

Over the 30-plus years I have been playing Fantasy, the RB position has seen considerable changes in how Fantasy Football team managers approach the position. If you didn’t open your typical 1QB leagues with RB/RB in the first two rounds, you were in the minority. Most of the teams in the NFL had a “Bell Cow” RB, and once the best 25 were gone, you were in big trouble. Now that most teams employ some “RBBC- Running Back by Committee” level, the pool of possible starting RBs in Fantasy Football has increased.

In recent years, more team managers have been using a Zero RB strategy, making valuable RBs more affordable in drafts where several team managers use this strategy. My approach in fantasy football has always been consistent in the RB position. I draft the elite guys where they should be drafted but never overdraft the second or third-tier guys. Taking this “Value Based” approach, I have not had to change my strategy much regarding the RB position because of its adaptive approach.

Redraft Rules of Thumb

The RB position is treated differently in Redraft versus other forms of Fantasy Football using my “Better Than Zero” philosophy. My rosters are usually skewed for more RBs than WRs for my typical Redraft roster. Where those RBs are acquired in the draft will vary considerably depending on my draft slot and how many RBs are selected ahead of me. Passing on a top RB early based on injury concerns is a losing strategy. Christian McCaffrey played two full seasons in a row, 96% of all snaps, got injured two seasons in a row, and has played most of the games over the next two years.

Meanwhile, last season, the first-round picks at WR lost more games to injuries than the first-round RBs. This year, only four RBs are elite enough to be drafted in the first round. There is a 10% tier break gap between RB4 and RB5 using my MVP24 Index Forecast data. One strategy I like in Redraft and Best Ball is to plan my draft at RB backward. Finding the high-value guys to target later in the draft lets you know how much of a priority it is to draft an RB at earlier times. If the top 4 RBs are gone by the time I draft in the first round, I know I can get guys like Joe Mixon (Pick 36) or Isiah Pacheco (Pick 31) in the 3rd round and guys like Rhamondre Stevenson (Pick 69), D’Andre Swift (Pick64) and Brian Robinson (Pick 102) much later.

I like to have 6-7 RBs and only 4-6 WRs in leagues with seven position starters and seven bench slots. If four of those RBs are scheduled to start week one, my draft has succeeded. I often take both players to increase my odds of having the starter in some split or unknown backfield situations. Handcuffing my starting RBs is also a valuable tool. Many Fantasy Football analysts tell you to handcuff other team managers' RBs, not your own. This gameplay is a failed strategy since it requires two injuries, not one, to make your handcuff useful. If my own RB is handcuffed, I have a guarantee to have one starting RB available that week. As the backfield touches get more evenly shared in the NFL, the concept of “Playing Em Both” is having more success.

Dynasty Draft Rules of Thumb

How many starters a Dynasty league employs dictates my strategy at the position more than in Redraft or Best Ball. While it is true that RBs generally have a shorter lifespan in the NFL, the “Survivors” that buck that trend can retain their value quite well, according to research done by Professor John Bush here at the Science of Fantasy Football.

In typical leagues that only start 2 RBs, this is the last position I worry about other than to have lots of options at the position. While my total number of RBs is more significant than other positions in Dynasty, it’s not my primary goal to make roster-building decisions as it is in Redraft, where it’s almost universal that I roster more RBs than WRs. One very successful strategy that doesn’t get much attention is to hoard the backups at the start of the season. I will drop my marginal WRs and TEs to grab the Free Agent RBs that make the team's final roster. I will also actively trade for RBs who failed to produce as rookies. Last season, those strategies combined with having many shares of Kyren Williams, Ty Chandler, Zamir White, Malik Davis, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Emari Demercado on my Dynasty rosters.

I also tend to draft more RBs late in rookie Dynasty drafts than other positions, which loads my roster with lots of potential RBs to gain volume as injuries start. Rasheen Ali is not taking the starting job in BAL from Derrick Henry, but he could gain traction if Henry misses some games. One successful strategy in new Dynasty drafts is to grab a few of the older RBs that are seen falling in drafts, as Team Managers tend to hoard the younger players at each position. Because of their age, you can often get excellent value in these new leagues on established studs like Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon.

Best Ball Leagues

In my roster built at RB, Best Balls are more varied than in other leagues. The more starting-level RBs I land, the fewer total RBs I might carry, depending on the situation at WR. A high percentage of my 20-player drafts in Best Ball have a common 3QB and 3TE build approach). Grabbing both ends in a timeshare situation (Zach Moss and Chase Brown this year) or handcuffing my starters (Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce this year) is another excellent strategy I use more often in Best Ball than other formats.

Injury concerns affect my decisions less in Best Ball than in Redraft. For this season, I won’t end up with many shares of Nick Chubb in Redraft, but in Best Ball, I am willing to take the risk on Chubb if I can back him up with Jerome Ford. Yes, you will sometimes get sniped when trying to establish a handcuff situation at RB in Best, Ball, so you need to like that first, who is already taken well enough on his own. Working your draft backward by understanding how much later the second player in a split backfield situation is being taken can help you know whether to grab the first player a little earlier to accomplish your goal of rostering both players.

Conclusion

No fixed strategy system works every time. Any strategy can be turned into a winning one if you hit on your value picks later in the draft and avoid injuries. An adaptive strategy like my “Better Than Zero” game plan is always better than “Zero RB” or “Elite QB or TE.” If you draft in multiple leagues, your rosters should look very different naturally, depending on your starting slot and the strategies employed by your fellow team managers. You often draft against the same 11 team managers; your rosters should look different regarding the number of QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you hold yourself to carved-in-stone roster makeup, you are not being adaptive enough. If you have a solid game plan, you will be more successful but have better results in those leagues where you anticipate the moves. Stay tuned for my rules of thumb at other positions and my updated article about my “Better Than Zero” strategy, which will be coming soon, along with my safe studs and value plays articles. Good luck this season!

Glossary of Terms

One of the biggest challenges is the need for definitive definitions for some of the terms used in articles. Below is an explanation of each that I used that might have multiple meanings in the Fantasy Football World.

Sniped: Having the player you wanted in the next round take a few picks before your turn. This can ruin your hof handcuffing a player in a split backfield situation.

Play Em Both Strategy: Playing the top two RBs on the same team in your weekly lineup the same week in Fantasy Football.

Handcuff: Having the logical backup to your starter in Fantasy Football.

Bell Cow RB: An RB that gets a high percentage of the touches at the RB position for his team. This RB type might have been considered 30 or more touches many years ago, but the expected touches have dropped significantly.

RBBC: Running Back by Committee is used when a coach uses a variety of RBs on his team in equal proportions.

Elite QB or TE: A QB or TE selected early in a Fantasy Football will be in the top 80% in weekly value scoring.

Weekly Value: Judging players’ ability to use a weekly statistical tool rather than year-end totals or points per game calculations established throughout an entire season.

Late QB Strategy: Select a quarterback well past the median time when your opponents selected their quarterback.

Streaming TE: Using multiple starters weekly based on the expected defensive matchup instead of using the same starter for most weeks in the season.

Expert League: A league comprised of other fantasy football analysts or players who are highly proficient in that format.

Tournament Style: is a significant entry with multiple divisions and a playoff system at the end of the year to crown a grand champion. Scott Fish Bowl is an example of such a league.

Fantasy Football Diary: A notebook or computer contains notes about your draft, waiver moves, and results, which can help you improve your ability in fantasy football from one season to the next. Note the Editor linked the Professor's Discussion of a Diary video 2022. Still relevant.

Fixed Strategy: A game plan used by a team manager that always follows a set script for when to draft players at different positions. Zero RB is one example of a popular fixed strategy that is rarely used.

Zero RB Strategy: A fixed strategy system that dictates fading the RB position in favor of other positions, usually setting a minimum round number to select your first RB for the season.

Adaptive Strategy: A game plan used by a team manager in a draft that constantly adjusts as each selection is made, whose goal is to select as many elite players at different positions as possible.