Pays to Be Contrarian in Fantasy Football: RB Edition 

Pays to Be Contrarian in Fantasy Football: RB Edition 


The real advantage in Fantasy Football isn’t being an expert at player projections or getting your predictions correct for most players in the league. That advantage comes from knowing when to ZIG when the rest of your league is in the draft! If too many of your fellow team managers in a league are using the same strategy, then being a contrarian is even more valuable. Let’s look at some contrarian strategies I have successfully used in Fantasy Football over the last few seasons. 


Stop Guessing Draft Them Both


Every fantasy football draft season, we see endless debates about which RB will lead a particular team in volume and, therefore, in fantasy football weekly value. An analyst will plant their stake on one choice, while another analyst will tell you the other guy is the RB to have on your roster. If you like that team’s offense, why not draft them both? I don’t like being wrong, and if the Average Draft Positions allow, I take being bad out of the equation for at least one RB position by drafting them both! Let’s look at this year’s ten best targets for this strategy. (Shown Alphabetically) 


Consensus ADPs from Fantasy Pros with overall pick shown 


Arizona: James Conner (Pick 95) and Trey Benson (Pick 109) 

Conner is historically one of the best weekly value guys when you rate him against his ADP. This year, the rookie Trey Benson could cut into the volume or take over the starting job later in the season. Both players are very cheap. 


Buffalo: James Cook (Pick 60) and Ray Davis (Pick 156)

James Cook is the incumbent starter and is being drafted a little earlier than I would like, but it’s his starting job to lose. The rookie Davis is very cheap right now, and this will be one of the best offenses in the league again this year. 


Carolina: Jonathan Brooks (Pick 91) and Chuba Hubbard (Pick 163) 

Last year, I avoided this offense in most formats, in part because we didn’t know who the starter might be. This year, the pecking order is much easier to figure out, with the rookie Brooks expected to take over the starting role when he is healthy. 


Cincinnati: Zach Moss (Pick 92) and Chase Brown (Pick 122)

The Bengals brought Moss in as an inexpensive free agent and didn’t spend draft capital on another RB. Mixon is gone, and he was a tremendous weekly value last season, so that the starter will be a valuable player in Fantasy Football. My money is on Brown, but the safe play is to draft both. 


Detroit: Jahmyr Gibbs RB (Pick 31) and David Montgomery (Pick 76) 

Last year, this duo was my most owned “Play Em Both” combo, and it worked out great. Don’t expect as many TDs from Montgomery this season, but having both on your roster is a good move again this season. 


New England: Rhamondre Stevenson (Pick 81) and Antonio Gibson (Pick 159) 

Stevenson is the RB to own, but backing him up with Antonio Gibson at cost is a solid move. They didn’t bring in Gibson not to use him, and he should have gotten lots of work on passing downs right from the start. 


Pittsburgh: Najee Harris (Pick 86) and Jaylen Warren (Pick 89)

Buying them both at their current ADPs is easier if you draft at a turn. Will Warren cut into Harris’ volume this season? Sometimes, in Fantasy Football, it's best to understand that the answer can be, “I’m not sure,” and the only way to be safe is to draft them both or neither. 


Tampa Bay: Rachaad White (Pick 63) and Bucky Irving (Pick 171) 

Yes, the hype for Irving this year reminds me of how Tank Bigsby would cut into Travis Etienne’s volume last season down in JAX. Maybe that would have happened if Bigsby had not given away the ball in week one. Regardless, if you spend 5th round capital on White, back him up late with Irving. 


Tennessee: Tony Pollard (Pick 103) and Tyjae Spears (Pick 108) 

These RBS are another tougher duo to draft because of their tight ADPs, so you need to be more confident about that first pick. The Titans have a new coach and a much different offense. I think Spears is the better RB in this duo, but like the Steelers, the best strategy might be to avoid both if you can’t get both on the turn. 


Washington: Brian Robinson (Pick 107) and Austin Ekeler (Pick 126)

Robinson had a solid year last season in weekly value in Fantasy Football after having a solid end to his rookie season. He was one of my most owned RBs the previous season at his inexpensive cost. Commanders have also changed coaches, offenses, and quarterbacks so that this offense will look much different. Why not draft them both instead of guessing which guy might get the most volume? 


Mixing the Tiers

While the cool kids in the Fantasy Football world will tell you that “Zero RB” is the way to go, the more intelligent money is looking for a new edge to counteract the growth of that other strategy. (Defining Zero RB for this article as avoiding the position until later in the draft, most often after the 5th round) Instead of preventing the position, why not invest in one solid option from each tier in the draft? (Tier defined for this article as a clear separation between groups of players in a fantasy football draft) If you draft the best value available regardless of position, you have a better chance of putting together a very well-balanced team in Fantasy Football. While you won’t be able to get an RB from every tier, the more tiers you can target from this list to fill out your RBs on your fake football roster, the better off you will be. 



If I end my typical redraft format draft with 6-9 RBs from the lists above, I will feel confident going into the season. Other RBs not listed among the tiers would only come into play as part of my “Draft Em Both” strategy discussed earlier. 


Play Them Both Strategy


If you play in deep leagues of 14 or more teams or leagues where you start 3 RBs instead of just 2, the more you want to consider dabbling in the “Play Em Both” strategy. Sometimes, we have a backfield where the volume on any given week is scripted by how the game goes. Quite often, we are wrong when we attempt to predict who will be the “Hot Hand” in any given week. (Hot Hand is defined for this article as the RB who gets the higher volume in a split backfield due to solid play early in the game) Even in 12-team leagues where you start 2 RBs, injuries can often lead to this strategy being a winning one. You understand that using this technique is unlikely to result in you seeing more than 30 points from your RB tandem; you are simply trying to avoid having fewer than 15 points from your starters. While this is not a primary strategy in fantasy football, I like to employ it in certain situations. 


Handcuff Your Stud


The cool kids in the fantasy football class will try to tell you that handcuffing someone else’s starter is better than handcuffing your own. But if you utilize that strategy, it will take two player injuries to make your handcuff backup valuable on any given week. If you handcuff your starter, you will have a higher chance of having at least one starter on any given week. It also allows the “Play Em Both” strategy to be used in a split backfield situation. If you have both on your roster and in your lineup, you know you will earn most of the points from that backfield that week for your fantasy football lineup. If you handcuff someone else’s players, you can have the lower part of both backfields! Don’t overdraft by a large margin to lock up your handcuff, but handcuff your stud when possible. 


Conclusion


You need to have an adaptive style to draft at any position in fantasy football, but the RB position can get very thin quickly if you don’t invest in the position early in your draft. Instead of guessing which part of a split backfield will win the most volume, it’s sometimes wiser to eliminate your chance of being wrong by taking both significant parts of that backfield. Since injuries happen, you will also have insurance if your first choice misses time. Fantasy Football is a numbers game, and at the RB position, it’s a great strategy to have more RBs than your opponents after you leave the draft.