Better Than Zero Strategy for 2024: Part One 

In fantasy football today, experts constantly tell you there is only one way to win: to follow their unique strategy. The crazy thing about unique strategies is that they are no longer exceptional once they become accepted by the masses. The very popular “Zero RB” strategy is a great example. If 7 of the 12 team managers in your Fantasy Football league use “Zero RB,” its built-in advantage against others not using it is gone. 

A few years ago, in a league of Football Fantasy Analysts, I proved that any strategy could win by drafting my QB and TE in the first two rounds at the 1.12/2.1 turn. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were those players, so that this concept wouldn’t work with just any two players. That team had one loss all season and was in the championship game, too. If you want to win more often in Fantasy Football, you need to use an adaptive strategy. Even if the other 11 team managers use your same game plan, you still have a chance to win by doing it better than everyone else and hitting on your value players. My “Better Than Zero” strategy is an adaptive draft method that lets you zag when others zag. The examples shown in this article are for 1QB redraft leagues with ADPs from FPPC leagues, but this concept can also work in other formats and platforms. 

Basics of Better Than Zero Strategy

Redraft Fantasy Football success comes from having more elite players every week than your opponent. Each year, there are close to the same number of elite players at both the RB and WR positions, yet in recent years, more WRs have typically been drafted in the first round versus RBS. There is also a significant advantage for rostering an elite TE versus the rest of the pack. If you can also get one of the Top 3 quarterbacks, you can have a positional advantage in that position. 

The basic strategy in my “Better Than Zero” philosophy is to gain as many advantages as possible. Teams are not built from the first to last round; they are engineered to ensure that an elite TE and QB are added at or slightly before their ADP while having some value players targeted at RB and WR later in drafts. Your draft position often determines which position you will start within the first round. Let’s break down the players you need to target at QB and TE this season. We can build around these two positions once we know which rounds we will target for QB and TE. My ultimate round-by-round cheat sheet, which includes all positions, will be released next week. 

QB Strategy for 2024

My strategy at QB has changed over the past several seasons. I used a late-round QB strategy many years ago and usually drafted just 1 QB in 1QB leagues. Over the past four seasons, the advantage of having one of the top QBs has increased. The strategy of drafting two solid QBs has emerged over the last two seasons. The earlier I draft my first quarterback, the later I usually draft my second quarterback. 

Round 4 Values with Forecasted MVP Index 

Josh Allen 120, Patrick Mahomes 125, Jalen Hurts 126

The most significant advantage to having one of the top 3 QBs is not their overall points but rather the increase in consistency over the rest of the players at the position. This concept can be shown using my MVP Index, which grades players against a historical median for the position. Hurts, Mahomes, and Allen are the only three players above a 120 rating, with the 4th best at 103. Mahomes and Hurts ADPs are in the early 5th round, with Allen being the first QB off the board in most drafts going to the mid-4th round. 

Round 6 Values with Forecasted MVP Index

CJ Stroud 94, Anthony Richardson 95

While these are not the next two players in forecasted MVP Value, they are the next two in ADP. While I have faith in my MVP Index's effectiveness in helping produce winning results in Fantasy Football, one statistical tool on its own should never make all the decisions for you in the draft. Both Stroud and Richardson could outperform their MVP forecast and are both quality quarterbacks to build around this season. 

Round 8 Values Joe Burrow 94 and Kyler Murray 103

Both players dealt with injury issues, but when they are healthy, they can be excellent values in Fantasy Football. Burrow’s back class had a rating of 131 in 2022, and Murray’s back class had a rating of 140 in 2021. Due to last year’s injuries, I would back up both players early if you build around them for your fantasy football team. 

Round 9 Values Dak Prescott 85 and Jordan Love 100

Dak Prescott has the lowest 2024 MVP Index forecast among QBs I would build around this season, but his back class of 120 for the 2020-21 2-season rating shows he is worth having as your starting QB this season. Jordan Love has only one season under his belt but is rated QB6 using my MVP Index. 

Round 10 Value Brock Purdy 95 and Jayden Daniels 65

Despite playing on a team that runs the ball more often than they throw the ball, Brock Purdy has some solid weapons, and that’s why he is of great value as a starting quarterback in fantasy football this season. Daniels is a longer-shot play that should only be drafted as part of a 2 QB draft strategy with a veteran chosen to go with him this season. The running upside is fantastic for weekly value this season. 

Round 11 Value Jared Goff 75

Over the last two seasons, Goff has had a vast home/away split. However, upon further review, that split on the road decreases in games played in light wind conditions. Lion's schedule is loaded with climate-controlled road games this season, making Goff a great QB2 target in 1QB leagues. 

Round 12 Value Caleb Williams 73

Winning in Fantasy Football is all about playing for the upside. One of my favorite strategies if I pass on the elite quarterbacks is pairing an “Upside Rookie” with an established player. Last season, that duo for me was Jared Goff and CJ Stroud. This year, Caleb Williams is my rookie of choice. 

Round 13 Value Justin Herbert 102 Tua Tagliavoa 86

The injury news on Justin Herbert is very concerning, but I still like his “Back Class” and think he will hit that number if he stays healthy all season. Tua lacks consistency from week to week but has those big weeks that can often be diagnosed ahead of time based on defensive matchups. Both are excellent choices in a 2 QB strategy in 1QB redraft this season. 

Round 14 Value Kirk Cousins 83

Coming back from injury, it’s always tough to forecast a player's production. But with Cousins, we know we aren’t concerned about rushing yards anyway, but there is always a concern with a player in a new offense. 

Round 15 Value Matthew Stafford 85 DeShaun Watson 60

Stafford is another guy I like to include in my 2 QB strategy because you can get a quality QB so late when you pick him. Watson is a huge risk/reward type player, but the risk is lowered to practically zero when you are only spending a 15th-round pick with him as part of a QB tandem in 1QB leagues. If rostering him doesn’t rub you the wrong way, he could be a valuable QB to roster this season with a back class value of QB5 possible. 

TE Strategy for 2024

This season, despite the growing population of very good TEs, the number of elite TEs that give you an edge in Fantasy Football every week still needs to grow. This finding is why my strategy will be to overpay for the position again. Unless I miss one of my top guys listed below, I will only be drafting one TE this season on my redraft teams to open an additional slot for another RB. Only the guys I am targeting as an elite TE option will be listed below. Next week, my ultimate cheat sheet will discuss some of the longshot options if that strategy fails in a particular draft. 

Round Two Value Travis Kelce 95 Trey McBride 83

The older man is still the king of the TE position. Last year, Kelce got hurt before the season started but still finished strong. Will KC try to limit his playing time during the season to keep him fresh for the playoffs? That is my only concern. McBride had a monster season without any competition for targets last season. The Cardinals added a great rookie wide receiver who could help keep defenses honest with McBride this season. 

Round Three Value Sam LaPorta 78 Dalton Kincaid 86

Both players are being drafted in the second round, which is too expensive. Kincaid was excellent down the stretch last season, and the WR Room is very different this season, adding some uncertainty, which is never good in Fantasy Football. If either player does fall past the second round, they are great value, but at their current ADP, they could be a little pricier for me this season. 

Round Three Value Mark Andrews 83

Despite getting hurt, Mark Andrews still posted a solid season in weekly value last year. After Kelce, he is the most consistent TE year to year, with six straight seasons with an MVP of 64 or higher and three seasons finishing above 100. 

Round Five Value George Kittle 58 Evan Engram 61

George Kittle's weekly value has dropped considerably since his great seasons of 2018 to 2020, but he still scores high enough to be a solid value in the fifth round if you miss on the guys going in the second and third rounds. Engram’s current ADP is a round earlier, but that’s a little pricey for me. 

Round Eight/Nine Value Pat Freiermuth 50 and TJ Hockenson 75 Combo 

If TJ Hockenson had never gotten hurt last season, he would be the first TE off the board at weekly value. The uncertainty of when he will return from injury is why you can get him in the ninth round. If I miss out on the elite guys this season, I will draft the combo of Pat Freiermuth and TJ Hockenson in the eighth and ninth rounds. This drafting approach is a risky move that could pay off at fantasy football playoff time. 

Conclusion

Too many people in Fantasy Football build their teams from the first round forward, while the better managers develop their teams by deciding where the value is at the QB and TE positions, even in 1QB leagues. That’s because having an elite QB and TE gives you an edge against the competition every week. The other big mistake people make is waiting too long to secure their first RB. The concept of “Better Than Zero” is to gain as many elite players and advantages as possible early in your draft without regard to RB or WR. As the Zero RB strategy becomes more common, the value of the elite RBs can grow! Why take the 12th-best player at WR when you can roster the 5th-best RB instead? Today, I explained the strategy and the QB and TE to target in your draft. Next, I will present my round-by-round cheat sheet and show sample drafts from various positions. 

Glossary of Terms

Average Draft Position, or ADP, is the average of drafts in that format and website or a consensus average among several different websites for leagues of the same format. 

MVP Index: This tool is a different way to look at consistency in Fantasy Football. It grades players based on full games played and looks at the three most important things a player can do every week. Did he help your team stay in the matchup by scoring close to the historic median? Did he help your team win by scoring well above that median? Did he cause your team to lose by having an awful game? Combine those three variables, and you will know a player’s value to your team. 

Zero RB Strategy: This is a popular fantasy football draft strategy in which you do not draft an RB until after the 5th, 7th, or some other defined point in the draft. Drafting 2 WRs, 1TE and 1QB seem to be the minimum to take in the first 4 picks.

Value Player: A player with a later-round Average Draft Position (ADP) that performs much better than other players at that spot in the draft and helps you win your fantasy football league. This is measured using my MVP index calculated at season's end.