Anatomy of a Draft: Scott Fish Bowl Edition

Every season, the Scott Fish Bowl (SFB) raises much money for charity while uniting the fantasy football industry. The scoring and roster rules change every season, which adds more strategy to the draft. Most years, I see analysts making the mistake of over-drafting certain players because they excelled the previous season, but often, there is so much change from one season to the next that those assumptions prove false. Let’s look at this year’s rules, my hypothesis of what those rules might mean, and track the first 14 picks of my draft. 

Significant Rules for 2024

SFB rules this season are PPR with ½ for RB, 1 for WR, and 1 ½ for TE with an additional point bonus for first downs. Rushing attempts will also get a ½ point bonus. It will take 50 yards to earn a point for passing yards this season. Return yards will have a nice bonus with one point for every five yards and TDs counting 10 points. Rushing and receiving yards will be the standard 1 point for 10 yards gained. 

This contest is a Superflex league with only one starting position for QB, RB, WR, and TE, with 5 Flex and 1 Kicker on Sleeper and six flex positions that include kickers that can consist of kickers on MFL. The SFB playoffs begin on week 12, which puts late Bye weeks into play again this season. 

Rule Effects for 2024 by Position

QB: Rules favor those who score more TDs rather than throwing for a ton of yardage. Rushing quarterbacks also have an edge with this format. QB12 would have averaged 19.8 PPG with these rules last season versus 19.9 for RB12, 18.7 PPG for WR12, and 15.1 PPG for TE12. Using standard rules with the same points for TDs the previous season, the QB12 averaged 23.2 PPG versus 15.6 PPG for RB12, 16.4 PPG for WR12, and 9.7 PPG for TE12. This rule slightly lowers the Superflex advantage at QB. 

RB: The small bonus per rushing attempt and only a half-point PPR was thought to close the gap between the larger reception guys and the rest of the RBs. In typical scoring leagues last season, Christian McCaffrey had a 3.3 PPG advantage over RB2, a 7.9 PPG edge on RB6, and a 9.5 PPG edge on RB12. Applying 2024 rules, he would have had a 2 PPG advantage over RB2, a 9 PPG edge on RB6, and a 9.9 PPG edge on RB12. These scoring rules slightly inflate RBs versus other positions, but the change throughout the scoring tiers is variable. 

WR: Except for adding a first down bonus point, the rules at this position are the closest to a typical league in other formats that offer a point per reception bonus. Therefore, the differences between scoring tiers are similar, but WR performance is slightly lower than that of comparable RBs in each tier. Comparing 2024 rules versus 2023 standard points, WR1 was at 26.3, WR6 at 21.3, WR12 at 18.7, WR18 at 17.4 and WR24 at 15.8. This compares to 29.8 at RB1, 20.8 at RB6, 19.9 at RB12, 18.3 at RB18 and 16.6 at RB24. Using typical PPR scoring, the differences were WR1 at 23.7, WR6 at 17.8, WR12 at 16.4, WR18 at 15.1, and WR24 at 13.8. This compares to 24.5 at RB1, 17.1 at RB6, 15.6 at RB12, 13.9 at RB18 and 12.5 at RB24. 

TE: Tight-end premium leagues make the elite TEs closer in value to other positions, but since they are based on receptions, not an adjustment of total points, the less elite a TE is, the less the advantage of TE premium scoring. Applying 2024 rules to last year’s data shows TE1 at 22.5 PPG, TE6 at 18.2 PPG, and TE12 at 15.1 PPG. This rule compares to 14.6 PPG for TE1, 12.7 at TE6, and 9.7 for TE12 with regular PPR scoring rules without the TE premium bonuses. The gap between TE1 and TE6 is more significant using premium scoring, while the gap between TE6 and TE12 is similar. 

Hypothesis on 2024 Rules to Draft Strategy

The rules have done a solid job of equalizing the advantages between positions, and the need to start with only one player at each position opens the strategy options for the draft. RBs slightly increase points over WRs in this scoring, but the difference is not enough to offset the higher risk of injury. The reduction of point advantage at QB will take a little of the strength away at the Superflex position, but there will still be an advantage to having two of the top QBs. 

My basic strategy was to draft the best player available without regard to position early in the draft, except to attempt to get two QBs expected to score 35 or more TDs. But if I can’t land superior QBs at a solid value, I will be OK leaving the draft with less than my typical 3-4 starters in a more typical Superflex league. Eight players expected to be drafted in the top 18 picks have their Bye weeks during the SFB playoffs. This situation is an edge I plan to exploit by passing on those players and selecting others in their same ADP tier in the first 4-6 rounds of the draft. Return yards will be a huge advantage this season, but the changes to the kick return rules this season in the NFL make me wonder if some coaches will change their strategy at the kick return positions. How these rules affect the risk at the position might lead to many different strategies this season. Using last year’s points, Rasheed Shaheed would have finished WR6 in PPG versus WR49 in PPG without the return points. Will Shaheed be replaced this season as a kick returner if he wins the WR2 position for New Orleans? Will teams have strategies to kick away from the best returners? There are too many unknowns to draft someone like Shaheed too early, but speculating on return yards might pay off later in the draft. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a shallow points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window, shown through my research to better indicate a player’s future potential for the next season. Since real NFL football constantly changes, picking the right time scale for any data study is essential. Six years is an eternity in the evolution of the football game, but it provides us with enough data to spot trends as they happen.  

SFB14 Draft Round by Round

This year, I attended a live draft for SFB in Chicago, my first in-person draft in quite a few years. It was a noisy environment, but it was a lot of fun, and I highly recommend attending a draft in person. Let’s look at my picks and strategy decisions round by round, starting with pick six. 

Round One (Pick 6) 

Only three top-rated QBs using my MVP Index were gone by the time for my pick, which made my decision much more accessible. The Chiefs have added weapons for Patrick Mahomes this season, and his median TDs as a starter is 39.5, and he has been over 40 TDs in half of his seasons. I chose Mahomes and the WR1 Cee Dee Lamb and took Mahomes. 

Round Two (Pick 19)

 After the first 18 picks, 8 QBs and 2 TEs were selected. In my mock drafts, this was the point where I often selected Dak Prescott to go with Cee Dee Lamb from the first round. Prescott was still on the board alone. My top RB who was still available was Jamyr Gibbs. AJ Brown and Nacua were my top two WRs on the board, along with my other 2nd round grad2nd-roundr Murray. Dak is the pick. 

Round Three (Pick 31) 

The draft went close to expected; being in the middle, I didn’t see a significant change with the third-round reversal. Gibbs was picked right before me, leaving only Kyren Williams and Trey McBride on my draft board for the first three rounds. Only four TEs have been selected so far, compared to 6 RBs. He was also my last TE, rated over 80 on the MVP Index, and he didn’t have his Bye week during the SFB playoffs, which made him the wise choice. 

Round Four (Pick 42) 

Unlike round three, when it came to my choice in round four, there were many more players on my draft board. Three quarterbacks were still there, but my early picks at quarterback made them less valuable this early in the draft. Davante Adams and Brandon Aiyuk were available at WR, and George Kittle at TE. Isiah Pacheco was my top-rated RB still available, and my goal was to solidify that position with three solid starters, so grabbing my first RB picking Pacheco made sense. 

Round Five (Pick 55) 

Since my previous pick, only one RB has been selected, which made that position very attractive to me at this spot in the draft, with Josh Jacobs and Rachaad White still available. I was hoping Davante Adams might make it back to me with the uncertainty with the Raiders offense, but he was selected a few picks before me. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel were my top two rated WRs, and I graded them as having top-round talent. I figured Evans had a better shot at making it back to me in the next round, so I grabbed Deebo Samuel with this pick. 

Round Six (Pick 66) 

My guess that Mike Evans would make it back to me came up one pick short! That left DeVonta Smith as the last of my WRs graded with a top-six-round target value and Kenneth Walker as my last RB. Since I had a few round 7 and 8 targets at RB that I liked as much as Walker, securing Smith as my 2nd WR was an easy pick. 

Roster Update After Six Rounds: QB Mahomes/Prescott RB Pacheco WR Samuel/DSmith TE McBride

Round Seven (Pick 79) 

Tee Higgins was the only other WR I considered with my sixth pick, but I liked Smith a little better. If he had returned to me this round, he would have been the logical choice, but he went off the board a few picks before me. One of my goals entering the draft with these balanced scoring rules was to have a more balanced team between the positions. That led me to the RB position with this pick, Rhamondre Stevenson and D’Andre Swift, both listed as guys I would target in the 7th and 8th rounds. Stevenson was my pick due to the lack of competition in New England. 

Round Eight (Pick 90) 

Unfortunately, I was drafting against some brilliant people, so D’Andre Swift did not make it back to me this round, and one of my WR values, starting in round 8, Keenan Allen, was also selected one pick before me. That left me choosing Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, or Jayden Reed. This draft round was also the earliest I would consider selecting TJ Hockenson. Godwin will be playing more out of the slot position this season, where he excelled; plus, he has been a whole year over a significant injury, so I expect a massive increase in his weekly value, making him an easy choice this round. 

Round Nine (Pick: 103) 

This round, I expected to add to my mini-Chiefs stack with either Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice. Both would be taken in consecutive picks right before my turn in round nine. That left me with an easy decision between either Rome Odunze or Pat Freiermuth. Hockenson was also gone by this time, so Muth was the last of my rounded talents at the position, making him the obvious choice here. 

Round Ten (Pick 114) 

After my round nine pick, there was a massive run on RBs, with six of the eleven picks going with an RB. That was the way I was leaning leading up to round 10, so it was time to pivot again with my strategy. Rome Odunze, whom I was close to selecting one round earlier and who was going in the eighth round on average, was still available, which made him another easy selection. 

Round Eleven (Pick 127) 

We have reached those critical middle rounds of a draft where some interesting decisions must be made. In the early rounds, if you minimize your risk, it's hard to screw up your pick. As you reach this point in the draft, you should care less about safety and more about upside potential. Brian Robinson, the RB from Washington, was the guy I hoped would be available in this round. But he was selected two picks before me, leaving my decision in the air. Sometimes, in a Superflex league, in addition to securing added depth at quarterback for yourself, removing a potential value quarterback from another team is a strategy worth exploring. Several teams have only had one quarterback so far, and if Daniel Jones plays back in his back class, he could be a surprise, so he became my pick. 

Round Twelve (Pick 138) 

All I care about is the upside weekly value starting with round 12. I don’t care if a guy only plays 10-12 ga; I, I just want someone who can produce when he does start. Last season, Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury on National TV. His season was finished, and there were some concerns about his career. A few days before the SFB draft, I read a report that said he was already back to running in a straight line at close to full speed. It was time to take the big gamble! If he only returns for the SFB playoffs, he could be a game-changer down the stretch, and that’s why I rolled the dice on Chubb with this pick. 

Round Thirteen (Pick 151) 

As Yogi once said, “It’s getting late early around here” and in Fantasy Football that means it’s time to continue to take my shots at guys, if they are healthy, who could have a higher weekly value impact than other Fantasy Football managers might consider. Mike Williams has been a huge risk/reward guy and is now the WR2 for a future Hall of Fame QB. If Rodgers could play back to his back class, then Williams could do the same, making him my lucky thirteenth pick. 

Round Fourteen (Pick 162) 

One thing my MVP Index has done in the past is to figure out which players might be vulnerable to losing their starting position at RB in the next season. The last year was it spotted that Kyren Williams was a potential breakout player because Cam Akers dud not hit the MVP Index minimum yet in his career. This year one who RB that failed to hit that MVP Minimum of 80 last season was James Cook. Buffalo drafted Ray Davis with their fourth-round pick. Cook will start the season as their RB1, but injury or inconsistency could give Davis a chance making him an intriguing value with pick 162. 

Conclusion

The strategy decisions shown above might only work for the SFB this season, but it shows the logic that you need to be apply at each step of the draft when you use the Scientific Method to play Fantasy Football. Each pick is like a move in chess, where you must consider your options with the next pick based on how your opponent reacts to your selection and the selections of the other team managers.