First 48 Safe Picks QBs
First 48 Safe Picks: QB Position
The old saying in Fantasy Football is that you can’t win your draft in the first 48 picks, but you can lose it! Early in any format, you must be sure of the weekly value you are getting for a player. Sometimes, it’s best to avoid a player with tremendous upside potential for a safer choice IF that safer player will be within 10% of the production of the breakout candidate. This year, I will discuss why particular players are the safer picks in the “First 48” by each position. Let’s look at the QB position for the 2024 Best Ball season using the most recent data from FPPC Leagues.
QBs Drafted in the First 48 Picks
Four QBs are being selected in the first four rounds of 1QB Best Ball drafts at FPPC. Josh Allen is at pick 31.3, Jalen Hurts is at pick 38.3, Patrick Mahomes is at pick 39.3, and Lamar Jackson is at pick 46.9. Let’s look at the pros and cons of each player.
Josh Allen Pick 31.3
Pros: The first quarterback being taken in the average Best Ball 1QB draft right now is Josh Allen, and that should come as no surprise. Over the past two seasons, he has finished 1st in MVP Index, Weekly Value Score, and BEST index. Josh Allen has exceeded 120 points on the MVP Index for the last four seasons. He has only failed to exceed 500 rushing yards once in his six seasons as a starter, scored 15 rushing TDs last season, and scored over 40 TDs total rushing and passing over the previous four seasons.
Cons: Josh Allen saw the departure of his two favorite targets at WR, Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The addition of Curtis Samuel can make up for the loss of Davis, but rookie Keon Coleman will have to click early and often with Allen to make up for the loss of Diggs. The schedule for the Fantasy Football playoffs will have Allen outdoors in possible lousy weather in Buffalo against two solid defenses in New England and the New York Jets.
2024 Forecast: Expecting a slight decline in weekly value pencils Josh Allen into the QB3 slot this season but over the 120 MVP Index threshold to be a lock for the Top 5 in Fantasy Football. The Fantasy Football schedule might make him too expensive in FPPC 1QB Best Ball this season.
Glossary of Terms: One of the biggest challenges is the need for definitive definitions for some article terms. Below is an explanation of each term I used that might have multiple meanings in the Fantasy Football World.
Breakout Player: A player expected to have their first outstanding season in Fantasy Football.
Weekly Value: Judging player’s ability on a weekly statistical tool rather than year-end totals or points per game calculations established throughout an entire season.
MVP Index: A weekly value tool that I developed that analyzes games above median, way below median, and way above median scoring for a player in Fantasy Football. This metric’s creation results in a statistical tool that shows a player’s upside consistency.
Weekly Value Score: A weekly value tool that scores a player’s best one-third of all games played over the last two seasons combined. This statistical tool shows a player’s upside potential in Fantasy Football.
BEST Index: A weekly value tool that counts a player’s above median games and way above median games in Fantasy Football that shows which player had the most impact on your Best Ball team throughout an entire season or multiple-season timeframe.