Science of Fantasy Football Lab

WEEKLY VALUES WEEK 5

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Four

Four weeks are in the books, and the ratings have shuffled around a bit as players now have to have one more game from this year count towards their score. This weighting of the current season for my weekly values attempts to show you who has the current hot hand. Starting this week, I also show the negative MVP rating data for every player who earned one and also have added that data to the QB position. Let’s take a look at the leaders after week four.

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” Using a two-year data window, the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football. This is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player.

Consistency Rating- Many say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game.

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible weekly outcomes that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players.

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be helpful when making trades to understand how much value you gain or drop at a position in any deal.

QB Weekly Value

Josh Allen continues to rise, Patrick Mahomes settled into second place, and Joe Burrow falls. How much of Burrow’s trouble is due to injury is one thing the data can’t tell us. CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson continue to impress the way rookies seldom do in their first year.

RB Weekly Value

One week ago, we were wondering if we had seen the best of Derrick Henry, but he quickly shut us up this week with another typical King Henry game. Christian McCaffrey has distanced himself from the field right now, although due to a small sample size, it’s impossible to know what to expect from De’Von Achane; the data has him up to 3rd best in Fantasy Football.

WR Weekly Value

Once again, this week, Davante Adams has shown us that he is quarterback-proof! Imagine going from a future Hall of Famer to an average quarterback, to a journeyman, and then to a rookie without having your production fall off. Puka Nacua had yet another dominant game and soars up to WR5 this week, ironically right behind the injured guy he is replacing.

TE Weekly Value

Travis Kelce is off to a slow start this year unless your league gives bonus points for hit singles by your main squeeze. (Kids today with their exotic rules!) The TE position has been very lean, with the gap from TE5 to TE10 equal to that from TE10 to TE35 in PPR points. Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are in a class by themselves, followed by George Kittle and TJ Hockenson.

Conclusion

Week four can bring big changes since players who have not missed a game now get two games from this season factored into their weekly value calculations. This helps weigh the value of the current season while still factoring in the last two complete seasons. Remember to use the MVP Index data when comparing one player to another for your flex starting decisions during bye weeks when those decisions get more challenging. If one player has a massive edge in both weekly value and the MVP Index, then you can weigh their defensive matchup that week less because the higher those values, the better a player has performed, even during tough matchup weeks. Good luck in week five!

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