Measuring Elite Level by Position Using BEST Index
Measuring Elite Level by Position Using BEST Index
The debate always occurs before fantasy football over how many “Elite” players exist in each position. Like many things in Fantasy Football, the definition of “Elite” always seems different for different analysts! For the sake of this article, I will define “Elite” as players who have a significant weekly impact on your Best Ball lineups and help you win matchups in set lineup leagues. Using my BEST index, I will define an “Elite Player” as anyone with a BEST index of 15 or greater. I will also show the breakdown per season per position for the last three years. More research is being done to see how “Sticky” this statistic is for forecasting future production, but BEST does a great job of showing who had the best season the previous year. Before I dive into the data, here is a reminder of the BEST index.
Explaining BEST Index Concept
Three things can happen every week with every player and how they affect your success in Fantasy Football.
A player can have a great game.
A player can have an average game.
A player can have a poor game.
Suppose we count how many times a player had a great game and every time a player beat a historical median of points. In that case, we know how much that player helped you in Fantasy Football, especially in the Best Ball format, where a lousy game doesn’t count against us. When calculating the BEST index, I used the same historical median for RB, WR, and TE so we could view the “Weekly Value” for our Flex starting position. One point is assigned each time a player hits or exceeds 10 PPR points at RB, WR, or TE, and one more point is assigned each time a player hits 20 PPR points. A “Perfect” BEST index would be 34 points, and the worst BEST index score would be 0. Separate values are assigned for QB.
Professor's Addition—For all of Dennis's Figures, I added ELITE (BEST 20 to 25), MID (BEST 10 to 19), and WEAK (BEST 1 to 9) as categories and presented these as both sums and percentages of the total that year.
Last year, only 6 QBs had a BEST index of 15 or greater. Only 2 exceeded 20, and nobody exceeded 25 for the previous year. Six QBs eclipsed a BEST index of 15 in 2022 and 12 in 2021. In 2023, we had a surge of QBs in that 10 to 14 BEST index range.
The success of an Elite QB strategy is easily explained with an analysis of this data. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only two QBs with a BEST index over 20. Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Lamar Jackson also qualified for the “Elite Level” based on my definition of the BEST index of greater than 15. After those top 6 quarterbacks, there is a large group of 12 at the next level, suggesting you can hunt for values later in the draft if you miss out on the elite guys.
Over the last three seasons, the “Elite RBs” population was more significant than the QB position by a median margin of 12 to 6. Last year, the “Super Elite” was limited to just two players, with three at that BEST of 20+ the previous two seasons. The number of “Elite RBs” using my definition of a BEST index over 15 was consistent in the last two seasons.
Christian McCaffrey was in a tier of his own with a BEST of 28, with Breece Hall 2nd best at 20. Raheem Mostert, Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Jamyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery were also elite based on my definition of the BEST index over 15. Owning two or more of these “Elite” RBs was a winning strategy last year.
Over the past three seasons, the “Elite WRs” population was close to that at RB but well ahead of the QB position. The “Super Elite” level was double that of RB last season and was ahead of the RB position by a median of one player in the previous three years.
Last year, Tyreek Hill was the only WR with a BEST over 25, with Cee Dee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua the only other “Super Elite WRs,” according to my BEST index. Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, DeVonta Smith, and DK Metcalf also reached that “Elite” level as defined by the BEST index over 15.
The population of players in the following category is almost double that of the “Elite” group each of the last three seasons. The advantage of having two or more of the “Elite” WRs is shown clearly with the BEST index.
Every season, there is a debate over how many elite TEs exist in fantasy football, and each year, my answer varies between 1 and 3. Last year, using my definition of a BEST index exceeding 15, I found that there was only one elite TE, and that was TJ Hockenson. Injuries slowed down Travis Kelce most of the season, but he still finished runner-up at TE with a BEST of 14.
The population of TEs exceeding the BEST index of 10 was double what it was in 2022 but only one greater than in 2021. There were some tremendous later-round bargains at TE last season, which supports my usual strategy of waiting at the position if I miss out on the top 3 or 4. It will be interesting to see how this strategy changes with the influx of talented pass-catching TEs we have seen in the last few drafts.
Conclusion
The most challenging part of Fantasy Football forecasts is understanding what past performances tell us about trends for the future. An influx of young talent at QB and TE could expand the population of elite players at each critical position, which could adjust our strategy. More research is underway to understand just how “Sticky” the BEST index is from one season to the next, but the breakdown by category shows us how players at each position have performed in the past so that we can expect the future.
Stay tuned for more information on this new weekly statistical tool. Since fantasy football is a weekly game, it is advantageous to view it using a different lens than total points or points per game.