Grading Better Than Zero Strategy 

After Seven Weeks 2024 

This year, the Professor and I did a live beta test combining our weekly value tools to create a consensus rating. My “Better Than Zero” draft strategy used the resulting metric. Part of utilizing the “Scientific Method” in Fantasy Football involves experiments. Over the last two seasons, the concept of “Better Than Zero” has passed the test. It has consistently helped me build winning rosters for various formats of Fantasy Football. How would combining six metrics into a consensus work using a proven roster-building strategy? I put it to the test in multiple formats and platforms this year. Let’s see how it works after the regular season’s first half. 

Draft Night Out League Redraft League 

Fantasy Football experts converge in Canton, Ohio, for the yearly Fantasy Football Expo. Many of these analysts gather to go head-to-head in live drafts. This year, the Science of Fantasy Football was represented by Professor John Bush and me drafting a team. This league uses PPR Scoring starting 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1K and 1 DEF. We drafted from the 11th position and ended up leaning into a stud RB strategy with Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon as our 1st and 3rd picks. Travis Kelce was our 2nd round pick, and we grabbed our QB in round 8 with Jordan Love as our pick. Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, and Michael Pittman were our first three WRs selected. 

QB: Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield

RB: Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Chase Brown, Kimani Vidal, Kendre Miller, Emmanuel Wilson

WR: Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Michael Pittman, Romeo Doubs, Keon Coleman, Quentin Johnson

TE: Travis Kelce

Streaming K and DEF every week 

After even weeks, this team couldn’t perform much better. The team has a solid three-player group at both RB and WR with an elite TE and QB. Grabbing Baker Mayfield off waivers in week one has proven to be a great addition, and Romeo Doubs was also picked up on waivers several weeks into the season. Chris Godwin and Jayden Reed have turned out to be the two best values versus ADP this year at the WR position. Losing Godwin will hurt, but I grabbed Cedric Tillman off waivers as my next man. 

Record 5-2

Standings: Second Place Overall 

Scott Fish Bowl Redraft Tournament Style League 

Over 3,000 fantasy football players compete yearly in the country's biggest charity tournament. I participated in a live draft in Chicago to grab my team this year. A unique set of scoring rules each year confounds players looking to find the edge. This league starts 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 5 Flex, 1 Superflex, 1K. I picked from the 6th draft slot and ended up going with back-to-back QBs to start the draft, followed by a TE, my first RB, and then grabbed my top 3 WRs by the eighth round. The scoring is very generous for kick and punt return yardage, but with the uncertainty of how consistent the new kickoff returns would be I decided to only let those players late in the draft. 

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones

RB: Isiah Pacheco, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Tank Bigsby, Ray Davis, Kimani Vidal, Dameon Pierce

WR: Deebo Samuel, Devonta Smith, Chris Godwin, Ju Ju Smith Schuster, Andrei Iosivas, Rome Odunze, Bub Means, Jermaine Jackson, Ray Ray McCloud

TE: Trey McBride and Pat Freiermuth 

K: Joshua Karty 

The injuries to Isiah Pacheco and Rhamondre Stevenson have hurt my RB group, but now I will get Nick Chubb back for that great midseason addition. Compared to ADP Chris Godwin, the WR group is solid and anchored by the best value, but Rome Odunze was a poor selection. Losing Godwin will be a huge blow to this team’s chances. The TE tandem is solid in this league, featuring premium scoring for the position, but my QB group has been underwhelming so far. 

Record 7-7 (Need 13 wins by week 14 to qualify for the tournament playoffs)

Divisional Standings: 6th place 

Football Guys Bowl Redraft Tournament Style League 

This season, I was invited to participate in a tournament-style league for the paid members of The Football Guys. You must perform well in your division to make the tournament-style playoffs later in the season. They use PPR scoring and start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2 Flex, and 1 DEF. There were 3 WR starters every week that put a little premium on that position over RB in this format. I was drafted from the 11th position and went heavy WR with my first three picks. When I got to the 4th round, I valued no RBs or WRs at that point in the draft, so I grabbed an elite QB in Jalen Hurts. The elite TEs were taken before I was ready, so I ended up with the tandem of Dallas Goedert and TJ Hockenson in the 9th and 11th rounds. The Better Than Zero concept led to grabbing a larger quantity of RBs with upside. 

QB: Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield

RB: D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, Kimani Vidal, Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Ray Davis, Dameon Pierce

WR: AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, Romeo Doubs, Marvin Harrison Jr, Sterling Shephard, Mecole Hardman, Tutu Atwell 

TE: Dallas Goedert and TJ Hockenson

Since this was another “Tournament Style” league, I decided to take a chance on the PUP list of guys Nick Chubb and TJ Hockenson so that I would be strong in the playoffs. Grabbing Chubb’s backup and the top two RBs with the Chargers was part of the “Better Than Zero” philosophy. My WR choices in a start 3WR league have worked out well. 

Record: 5-2

Division: 2nd Place 

For Frequency Sake Staff League Redraft 

This 1QB redraft-style league with PPR scoring is for participants in the For Frequency Sake network of podcasts. This league starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 Flex and uses regular PPR scoring.  I drafted from the 5th spot and opened with the best player available, Amon Ra St Brown, followed by the best player available in round 2, which turned out to be RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Since I knew I had some value in the RB and WR selections, I got cute and went to the elite QB and TE in rounds 3 and 4. This test was to see what a team would look like if I were more aggressive at the QB position.

QB: Patrick Mahomes

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, JK Dobbins, Kimani Vidal, D’Andre Swift, Chase Brown, Kareem Hunt, Sean Tucker

WR: Amon Ra St Brown, Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr, Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith Njigba

TE: Trey McBride and Tucker Kraft 

Patrick Mahomes's slow start has not hurt my team that badly because the rest of my squad has been solid. Liberal use of the waiver wire has secured depth at the RB and WR positions, and I have a solid 1-2 punch at TE. The pick of Brian Thomas Jr. has paid off handsomely so far. 

Record 6-1 

Standings 1st Place 

Best Ball Insanity (Best Ball With Fixed Rosters) 

A group of fantasy football players based in the UK, with whom I have played several dynasty leagues over the years, invited me to a fun $10 winner-take Best Ball league this year. The “Better Than Zero” strategy needs to be adjusted slightly for this format, and I felt this would be a good experiment against outstanding fake football players. This 12-team league scores 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, and 2 Flex players weekly and has a deep roster of 30 players. This league structure would put my “Next Man Up” concept into play, with over 300 players making a roster drafting from the 10th slot. 

QBs: Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Bryce Young

RBs: D’Andre Swift, James Conner, Trey Benson, Jaylen Wright, Marshawn Lloyd, Bucky Irving, Pierre Strong

WRs: AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison Jr, Joshua Palmer, Mecole Hardman, KJ Osborn

TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, Johnu Smith, Hayden Hurst

The draft didn’t go quite as expected, and I didn’t end up with as many solid RBs as I had hoped, but my WR and TE group was powerful. I waited on QB and ended up with only two solid starters, leaning heavily on Jordan Love and his strong start. 

Record: 6-1

Standings 2nd Place

Best Ballin (Best Ball with Weekly Waivers) 

When one of the nicest people from Fantasy Football Twitter invites you to play in a league against tough competition, you instantly say yes. Rachel, who is known as @TootsiePop6 on Twitter came up with a fun concept for a Best Ball league with minor rosters and weekly waivers. This situation would be another great test for my “Better Than Zero” strategy in the Best Ball format while challenging my “Next Man Up’ management style with weekly waivers. This 10-team Superflex format league starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2 Flex, and 1 Superflex with only eight bench players. This fact means you need to play Best Ball with more of a Redraft philosophy and such a small bench. Drafting from position 2 in a 10-team Superflex format, I decided to go QB hot and heavy from the first three rounds. 

QBs: Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams

RBs: Isiah Pacheco#, De’Von Achane, D’Andre Swift, Brian Robinson, Bucky Irving, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Goodson

WRs: Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze#, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, Cedric Tillman 

TEs: Tucker Kraft, Dallas Goedert, Johnu Smith 

# denotes a draft pick no longer on the roster at week seven

Minor rosters without an IR position required some tough decisions to be made when players got hurt or during a Bye week. The strategy was to have two solid stacks with the Bears and Packers QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. I grabbed two of the Chargers WRs, but as I saw how weak that passing offense was, I moved on via waivers to improve my team. This stack strategy has worked out well so far. I lost Odunze coming out of the Bears bye week, but Pacheco is still available, and I will make a move on him in a few weeks. When you are competing in leagues with small benches, don’t be afraid to shuffle your roster. You might lose a Flex starter along the way, but you can find a replacement. 

Record 13-1

Standings 2nd Place 

Rock Paper Kickers Dynasty League Startup 

The “Better Than Zero” strategy was devised for redraft leagues, but I decided to try it in other formats this year. I drafted two new dynasty leagues using this theory. One draft happened much earlier in the pre-season before the six weekly value consensus ratings were finished. This league was drafted using consensus ratings. Would that improve the draft and the team’s results? Only two data points wouldn’t be enough to decide on that question. This 12-team Superflex dynasty league starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 4 Flex, and 1 Superflex with a 16-player bench, 2 IR slots, and 3 Taxi slots. Rookie players were combined with the veterans for one draft, and I was picked from the eighth draft position. 

QB: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Jarret Stidham

RBs: D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson, Bucky Irving, Tyler Goodson, Eric Gray, Jordan Mims, Dameon Pierce, Haasan Haskins

WRs: AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Hopkins, Jonathon Mingo, Sterling Shephard, Damarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Tyquan Thornton

TEs: Pat Freiermuth, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Greg Dulcich, Jared Wiley 

My typical strategy in a dynasty startup is not to worry about the players' ages as much as the average dynasty team manager. Over many years of trial and error, I have discovered that as long as I layer my ages, my team will last a long time before needing a severe overhaul and will start stronger than if I concentrated on all young players. Opening my draft with Caleb Williams and Jordan Love was a risk, but it has paid off to secure my starting quarterbacks for a long time. The trade of D-Hop to the Chiefs should help this team for the rest of this season. 

Record 11-3

Standings 3rd Place 

Pinche Pendejo WC Dynasty League 

Early in the draft season, before my weekly value metrics were finished for the new season, I was invited to a 10-team dynasty league by some experienced players. I knew I had another league with a draft scheduled later in the spring, so this would be a good test before and after the metrics were ready. This league is unique because it’s a 10-team league that starts 1QB, 3RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3 Flex, and 1 Superflex with a 16-player bench, 3 IR slots, and 4 Taxi slots. I was drafting from the first position in the draft and probably was still high on the recent Superbowl win of the Chiefs when I selected Patrick Mahomes as my top pick. I compounded that mistake by taking TE Sam LaPorta with my second pick despite some obvious second QBs like Jordan Love still being available. I knew that by starting 3 RBs and 3 WRs, I would also need to prioritize those spots, but I failed to do so early in the draft. 

QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, Will Levis, Joe Flacco 

RBs: Isiah Pacheco, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford, Jaylen Wright, Bucky Irving, Issac Guerrendo, Audric Estime, Tyrone Tracy, Dylan Laube, Kareem Hunt

WRs: Puka Nacua, Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Malachi Corley, Devontez Walker, Jacob Cowing, Andrei Iosivas, Tim Patrick, Sterling Shepherd, Calvin Austin 

TEs: Sam LaPorta, Chiggy Okonkwo, Jaheim Bell, Jared Wiley

This team has been hit hard by injuries, but it was not well-built due to questionable draft strategy and needing access to my weekly value consensus data. The only strength of this team is the abundance of good young RBs who will continue to get more of a chance in the years ahead, as well as some promising young WRs and TEs. Ending up so weak at quarterback in a Superflex league has doomed this team to mediocrity since my “value quarterbacks” have all failed to produce, and my starting two are off to a bad start this season. 

Record 1-6

Standings 10th and Last 

FPPC Redraft League Review

Five teams were drafted after the Fantasy Football Expo utilizing the six weekly value consensus data and the “Better Than Zero” draft strategy. Four of those five teams were 1QB, with only one Superflex league involved. FPPC Redraft is unique because you don’t have head-to-head matchups all season. The top six teams in points go head-to-head in the playoffs. They start weekly 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 2 Flex positions with a 10-player bench. The Superflex league switches one of the Flex to a Superflex. 

These teams were heavy on my value RBs, Pacheco and Swift, and WRs, Reed, Rice, and Godwin. Despite the injuries, the results have been solid this season. Three of the five teams are in playoff spots after seven weeks, with my worst team less than 20 points out of the playoffs at mid-season. 

Conclusion

The seven teams drafted using my “Better Than Zero” strategy utilizing the six weekly value consensus databases have a combined winning percentage of .757 at the midway point of the season. All but one of those teams is a lock to make the Fantasy Football playoffs. The only team on the outside looking in at the playoffs is my Scott Fish Bowl league team, which only needs six more wins in the next six weeks. (Also plays against the median scoring every week) When I add my 5 FPPC Redraft teams into the mix, I will have 82% of my teams in the playoffs. 

This season, the worst of my leagues was the team drafted early in the preseason before my metrics were ready. Since the draft strategy used in that Dynasty startup was questionable, no conclusions can be made about whether that team would have been better if it had access to the six weekly value consensus data. These leagues will all be revisited at the end of the season to see how my “Better Than Zero” strategy worked in this test of our six weekly value consensus data set.