Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Eleven 

In fantasy football, too many players concentrate on total points, which can deceive us of the "true" value of players in fake football. A few huge weeks can vault someone into the top 10 at a position in year-end stats or points per game. My goal with my statistical tools is to show the weekly value of a player by comparing their best games against their fellow players. While year-end points can tell us where we have been, my tools attempt to tell us where we might be going shortly and become more heavily weighted for the current season every week. Let’s take a look at this week’s data.  

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” Using a two-year data window, the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football. This metric is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player. 

Consistency Rating- Many say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A full game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game. 

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible weekly outcomes that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players. 

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be helpful when making trades to understand how much value you gain or drop at a position in any deal.

Conclusion

Each week, my weekly values continue to be more heavily weighted for the 2023 season. My MVP Index and Consistency Ratings will continue to show the big picture from the 2021 season to the current year. The MVP23 uses the same formula but only utilizes data from this season. Year-end points and even points per game can be very deceiving and, in their best cases, show us past performances of what already happened. My weekly tools attempt to establish a player’s value for the future. While the MVP Index is still being beta-tested to determine flex starters this season, the results have been promising. Suppose a player has an MVP Index of 75+. In that case, he should be considered a “Must Start,” and a difference of 15-20 points over another player is significant enough to minimize concerns about defensive matchups. Good luck this week!