Why the MVP Index Works 

Chase what matters has been my motto in Fantasy Football for many years. But this is true in all kinds of forecasting of the future. When preparing a forecast, whether it is for the stock market, grain markets, interest rates for the real estate business, handicapping horse races, picking sports game outcomes, or fantasy football, there is a ton of data to consider each week. All of the data can affect the success rate of your forecast, but once you add too many variables, it all becomes noise that drowns out your chance for victory. If you concentrate on the factors that matter the most, your percentage of success will soar in any forecast situation. The MVP Index chases what matters the most, and that’s why it’s a relatively simple tool that works. 

MVP Index Explained

The Fantasy Football analysts of the world have thrown so many exotic statistics at us that we aren’t sure which ones to put more weight on than the others. Air Yards, Points Over Expectation, and many more provide a solid insight into the forecast situation but don’t tell us what we need to know the most. The three things that matter most in forecasting Fantasy Football outcomes are consistency, significant point game potential, and lousy game potential. When folks look at Fantasy Football outcomes and show that even great players fluctuate in their performance, they conclude that “Consistency doesn’t matter because the data is never consistent from one week to the next.” Those people don’t understand how to grade consistency. 

When you look at Fantasy Football results, there is a median level of performance at each position. If you look at the 60% level of performance at each position, you get close to 10 points in the points per reception (PPR) scoring scheme at the RB and WR positions. I graded the TE position by that amount to allow direct comparisons for Flex starting position decisions. This grading aspect is the first factor in the MVP Index Formula based on full games played. 

In Fantasy Football, we don’t care why a player didn’t play a complete game, and we just know it hurt our chances for success whether he got injured or the coach decided to play someone else on the roster more on that given game. That’s why when I grade a player for his lousy game potential, I use all games played, even if that was one offensive snap. We don’t know whether a player will play a full game when we select him for our lineup! This level is set at less than 50% of the consistency level and is a negative factor on a player’s MVP Index score. 

When a player has a vast points game, he can often carry our whole Fantasy Football team to victory for that particular week. I grade that level to be twice as much as the consistency level to make sure that only the big-point games will count towards elevating a player’s MVP Index score. It’s no mystery that the best players in Fantasy Football have the most big points games during the season. 

The most challenging decision to make in the invention of the MVP Index was deciding the correct time frame to come up with the grades for players. The current season doesn’t give us enough data points for an accurate index, so a longer time frame needs to be considered. A player’s entire career is too much data because players rise and decline in ability with experience, and age does eventually play a factor in decreasing a player's ability. I use a two-season plus the current season window, and the effectiveness of that time frame will be studied in the off-season. 

MVP Index Among Rookies

While every player in Fantasy Football has a wide variance in their performances, rookies can often have an even wider variance as they develop in the game. The lack of data points to study in their career also means any Fantasy Football tool like the MVP Index will have more significant swings from one week to the next. This lack of data needs to be considered in both directions with rookie MVP Index data when comparing a rookie to a veteran player. Let’s look at the MVP Index for all rookies at present. 

MVP Index at QB

When you break the QB position down by chasing what matters the most in Fantasy Football, you can quickly see where the tiers fall and how thin the position is at the top. Three years ago, the data led me to change my theory in 1QB formats in Fantasy Football to spend more draft capital on an elite QB because the gap between the elite and the rest of the field was widening. This QB forward approach led to a higher winning percentage in my leagues and shows up clearly in the MVP Index at the QB position.

MVP Index at RB

Do you need more evidence as to why I always say, “Total Points are a Deceiving Statistic in Fantasy Football?” After week eight, despite playing in only five games, Alvin Kamara was up to RB7 in total points in PPR format. Kyren Williams is RB8 despite being out of action the last two weeks and not starting week one. De’Von Achane, who has only played four games, is RB12. That’s how lean the RB position is this season. Through Beta Testing this season, an MVP Index of 75 is considered a “Must Start” level. Only 20 RBs hit that mark right now, including the injured players as of week 8.

MVP Index at WR

The WR position is a little deeper than RB, with 27 players hitting that “Must Start” level of 75 on the MVP Index compared to just 20 for RB, but there are the same number of “Superstar Level” players at both WR and RB with just 11 each. If we only used grades from this season, then Tyreek Hill would dominate the position by far, and Davante Adams would drop out of the Top 20. Comparing this season to the overall level of performance might give us a clear indication of those rising and falling and will be studied in the offseason. I found it interesting that rookies Josh Downs and Zay Flowers have already reached that “Must Start” level of 75 points.

MVP Index at TE

The importance of having an elite TE on your Fantasy Football team is shown vividly using the MVP Index. Only one player, Travis Kelce, hits that “Superstar Level” of 100 points, and only 3 hit the “Must Start” level of 75, including rookie Sam LaPorta. The lack of consistency of George Kittle is shown clearly using the MVP Index. Nine lousy games offset his nine big games, and he only hit the 10-PPR point consistency level in just over half of his games. This result shows how lean the TE position has become in Fantasy Football. It will be interesting to see how fast Dalton Kincaid moves up this chart now that he has the TE position in Buffalo.

Conclusion

One of the most challenging decisions in Fantasy Football is who to start in your last Flex position in your lineup. The MVP Index can be used to compare players at different positions against each other. In early Beta Testing, 15 points in the MVP Index is enough to minimize the defensive matchups when comparing two or more players. Further testing in the offseason will confirm that points difference and will also attempt to work some injury factors into the equation. Since the MVP chases what matters most in Fantasy Football, it’s no surprise it has been a successful tool with my teams this season.