DMICs WEEKLY VALUE For WEEK 3

Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Two

The "Weekly Values" concept in Fantasy Football was to develop one number that gave a relative strength versus other players based on the consistency of their significant game ability. This metric always gets presented along with a Consistency Rating showing how often a player hits an acceptable floor value weekly. But we should also be concerned with the bad games that can cause our fantasy football team to lose no matter what the rest of our roster scores that week. Players who post twice the floor value for RB, WR, and TE can give us league-winning results. Combining all three factors and using a clever weighting function, the Fantasy MVP Rating has been born. (More on that later this week.) This week will be the first week I add this number to RB, WR, and TE ratings and Weekly Value and Consistency Rating. Let's check out the numbers after week two.  

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the "Big Points Game" ability with "Consistency." The goal is to compare each player's best games against the other players in Fantasy Football using a two-year data window. This metric is not meant to be a "Points Per Game" rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player.

Consistency Rating- Many say consistency doesn't matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game.

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible weekly outcomes that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining "Games 20 or More" with "Games Over 10" and "Games Under 5" plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players.

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This metric gets added to our chart for the first time in week two.

QB Weekly Value

After a lousy week one, Josh Allen bounced back with a strong game in week two to nudge Patrick Mahomes off the top spot for weekly values this week. There is a whole tier drop in weekly value after the top two at QB. Jalen Hurts also had a big bounce-back game and moved up to QB6. It gets crowded around QB9 and below, with a 3-point gap from QB9 Kirk Cousins to QB19 Trevor Lawrence. Justin Fields, forecasted to be solidly in the Top 6 this season, has fallen to QB21.

RB Weekly Value

After two weeks of play, the top three in weekly value have separated themselves from the pack. It's no surprise to see Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry leading the way. It was sad to see that gruesome injury to RB6 Nick Chubb and his replacement value player with the Browns, Jerome Ford, debut at RB35. If he can follow up with another strong effort next week, he can easily move into the Top 20 quickly if he gets the expected volume. The top 5 have a nice lead against the rest of the pack, with RB7 Jamyr Gibbs only having about a 3-point lead over RB22 Travis Etienne. Kyren Williams, after taking over the lead RB role with the Rams, debuts at RB18.  

TE Weekly Value

Travis Kelce was back but on a pitch count, which cost him the top spot at TE in weekly value after week two. Mark Andrews had a solid first game back, and those two remained the class at the position. George Kittle's back class at the position keeps him in the 3rd spot, but his weekly value will drop fast if he doesn't post a solid game soon. His Consistency Rating is also down to 52%, and his MVP Index is now just 6th best at the position. There is only a 3-point separation from TE5 Darren Waller to TE17 Noah Fant. Kyle Pitts has dropped to TE13, and his MVP Index has fallen to 12. (Anything below 50 hurts your team more often than he helps you win.)

WR Weekly Value

After two weeks of action, we have 2 WRs tied for the top spot, with Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson leading the way. Davante Adams and the injured Cooper Kupp are close behind at 3rd and 4th before a massive drop to the 5th-best WR JaMarr Chase. Chase's teammate Tee Higgins is close behind in 7th place this week, with Mike Evans making a solid move into the top 12. After two weeks of obliterating rookie records, the new kid on the Rams' block, Puka Nacua, moves to WR33. Weekly Values are slow to respond to a player who vastly outperforms his expected level early in the season, but one more strong week would place him easily in the top 20.