Better Than Zero Strategy for 2024: Part Two

In fantasy football today, experts constantly tell you there is only one way to win: to follow their unique strategy. The crazy thing about unique strategies is that they are no longer exceptional once they become accepted by the masses. The very popular “Zero RB” strategy is a great example. If 7 of the 12 team managers in your Fantasy Football league use “Zero RB,” its built-in advantage against others not using it is gone. 

A few years ago, in a league of Football Fantasy Analysts, I proved that any strategy could win by drafting my QB and TE in the first two rounds at the 1.12/2.1 turn. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were those players, so that this concept wouldn’t work with just any two players. That team had one loss all season and was in the championship game, too. You must use an adaptive strategy to win more often in Fantasy Football. Even if the other 11 team managers use your same game plan, you still have a chance to win by doing it better than everyone else and hitting on your value players. My “Better Than Zero” strategy is an adaptive draft method that lets you zag when others zag. The examples in this article are for 1QB redraft leagues with ADPs from FPPC leagues, but this concept can also work in other formats and platforms. 

Basics of Better Than Zero Strategy

Redraft Fantasy Football success comes from having more elite players on a weekly basis than your opponent. Each year, there are close to the same number of elite players at both the RB and WR positions, yet in recent years, more WRs have typically been drafted in the first round versus RBS. There is also a large advantage for rostering an elite TE versus the rest of the pack. If you can also get one of the Top 3 quarterbacks, you can have a positional advantage in that position. 

The basic strategy in my “Better Than Zero” philosophy is to gain as many advantages as possible. Teams are not built from the first to last round; they are engineered to ensure that an elite TE and QB are added at or slightly before their ADP while having some value players targeted at RB and WR later in drafts. Your draft position often determines which position you will start within the first round. Let’s break down the players you need to target at QB and TE this season. We can build around these two positions once we know which rounds we will target for QB and TE. My ultimate round-by-round cheat sheet, which includes all positions, will be released next week. 

Round One

My draft position and the actions before me determine the position of my first pick in the draft. In the first few picks, give me the upside at RB with Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson. I am looking more at a stud WR like Amon Ra St Brown in the mid-draft. Late in the draft if AJ Brown is there, I feel good about that pick; otherwise, I might start my draft RB/RB in those first two rounds. Being adaptive in the early rounds but reducing risk is a great idea. Here are my top 3 RBs and WRs in round one. 

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson

WR: Tyreek Hill, Amon Ra St Brown, AJ Brown

The holdouts for Cee Dee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase concern me, making the others listed above my priorities for the position. If either falls past pick 5, they must be considered despite the risk. 

Round Two

In 1QB leagues, the position of the player chosen in round one seldom causes me to pick another position in round two. Instead, I grab the best value from that ADP. Since so many WRs are being selected in the first round this season, the RB talent in round two is close in weekly value to some of the round-one picks. This is also a round where I consider adding an elite TE. Here are my top picks by position. 

RB: Jonathon Taylor, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Jahmyrr Gibbs

TE: Travis Kelce, Trey McBride

WR: Garret Wilson, Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison Jr

Round Three

If you pass on a TE in round 2, then round 3 is your last chance to get one of the elite players at the position this season. Two premium RBs are also going in this round, with Isiah Pacheco the safest, with no competition for touches this season in KC. The WR talent is solid in this round too. 

RB: Isiah Pacheco, De’Von Achane

TE: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid

WR: Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Evans

Round Four

My strategy still ignores previous positions in the draft until now, except if you haven’t grabbed an elite TE yet because this is your last chance with George Kittle. While Josh Allen is still one of the top 2 QBs in Fake Football, I am concerned about his Fantasy Football playoff schedule this year, so in most 1QB leagues, I will pass on him this early. Lots of interesting choices remain at WR and RB. 

TE: George Kittle

WR: Devonta Smith, Michael Pittman, DJ Moore

RB: Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara

Round Five

Unless I already have three players at one position by round five, I still grab the best player in the draft. The WR talent in this round should be excellent and lead the way. In a few drafts where I haven’t had one of these priority WRs or my top RB available, I have gone QB early to lock up an elite player. Remember that in my Better Than Zero strategy, the earlier you take your first QB, the later you can wait on the second one. Mahomes goes ahead of Hurts for me unless I draft AJ Brown in the first round. 

RB: Joe Mixon

WR: Tee Higgins, Tank Dell, Amari Cooper

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts

Round Six

Once I reach 3 WRs in my draft, I will only add 1 or 2 more so I can start loading up at the RB position. But this round does offer some interesting WRs to consider. I have grabbed Anthony Richardson in a few leagues in this round, but he comes with many risks this season. I would also consider adding D’Andre Swift or Jayden Reed one round ahead of their ADP in round six. If I added Mahomes in round five, Rashee Rice might also move up to the top of my list. 

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, D’Andre Swift

WR: Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin. Jayden Reed

QB: Anthony Richardson

Round Seven

There is great balance among the positions in this round, including some exciting TEs to add if you missed one. While Dallas Goedert and Brock Bowers both come with some level of risk there is a huge upside for both in the draft. Many Fantasy Football analysts are down on CK Stroud at his current ADP because of the lack of rushing yards. But his consistency from one week to the next will be solid. If Swift lasts in this round, he will be my primary focus. If I have yet to select my quarterback by this time, Jayden Reed will become an exciting pick so I can stack him with Jordan Love later in the draft. 

RB: D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert

WR: Jayden Reed, Keenan Allen 

QB: Kyler Murray, CJ Stroud

TE: Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers

Round Eight

After the first seven rounds, I have an idea of which position is my strength and which might be my possible weakness, which might start affecting my decision somewhat at this point. This round has some interesting choices for each position and one QB, Jordan Love, which I will take earlier than ADP. Love is one of my favorite QBs to target in Fake Football this season. 

RB: Chase Brown, Brian Robinson, Jonathon Brooks, Tony Pollard

QB: Jordan Love, Joe Burrow

WR: Xavier Worthy

TE: Pat Freiermuth

Round Nine

Great choices are abundant in this round, and the positions are well-balanced. This draft round level is also the earliest I can gamble on two players coming off serious injuries last season. TJ Hockenson at TE and Nick Chubb at RB could be valuable assets later in the season and are worth gambling on at this point in the draft. 

QB: Jordan Love, Dak Prescott. Jayden Daniels

RB: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze

Round Ten

Just a reminder that quite often by round 7 or 8, there will be a few players that I value at higher rounds that will drop into your lap a round or two later. It always pays to keep an eye on those guys that drop and target them first as you go forward in the draft. I mention that now because round ten is a little leaner for guys that I would target this season. One of my favorite rookie wide receivers is making it to round 10 quite often, making Brian Thomas my number one target in this round. 

WR: Brian Thomas, Joshua Palmer

RB: Jerome Ford (If I drafted Chubb), Blake Corum, Trey Benson (If I selected Conner) 

Round Eleven

Once you get past pick 120 in Fantasy Football drafts the only thing you should care about going forward is upside potential. You will have some hits and some big misses going forward, but the worst thing you can do is draft a guy at RB45 and have him finish RB42 for the season! Avoid the ordinary players who might be current WR2 or WR3 starters on a weaker passing team and concentrate on the guys who could have a nice season if they get the opportunity. 

QB: Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy

RB: Jaylen Wright, Chuba Hubbard (Especially if you selected Brooks) Marshawn Lloyd (Round early), Ty Chandler

WR: Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett

TE: Luke Musgrave, Cole Kmet

Round Twelve

This draft round is full of potential, but I might also cheat with someone from round 13 here if my top guys are not available at RB. A great “Back Class” sleeper is also available in this round. This season, Mike Williams could be an excellent WR3 or WR4 on your Fantasy Football roster. Jared Goff is another guy I like at QB since he only plays three games outdoors this season. 

RB: Marshawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal, Ray Davis 

QB: Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa 

WR: Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks

TE: Isiah Likely (Possible backup if you selected Andrews)

Round Thirteen

Round draft is a great RB upside round although there is one possibly hidden gem at WR who is worth the risk this late in the draft. Jerry Jeudy was awful last season but has one excellent “Back Class” season where he finished at a Top 15 level in weekly value. As your WR4, he would be a great risk/reward guy in this round. 

RB: Kimani Vidal, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracey, Antonio Gibson

WR: Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Lynn Polk

Round Fourteen

We are now past pick 150 and into what I jokingly call the “Finding the Next Nacua” point in the draft. Last season, a unique set of circumstances gave us some tremendous late-round targets. While there are not as many precise cut openings at positions we haven’t already exploited; one has been falling to this round. Adonai Mitchell doesn’t have as clear of a path to fantasy football goodness as Nacua did last year, but he is very tempting, and we get down to pick 170. 

WR: Adonai Mitchell, Adam Thielen

RB: Kendre Miller, Audric Estime, Braelon Allen, Elijah Mitchell

QB: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert

TE: Noah Fant

Round Fifteen

Like many websites, FPPC 1QB redraft leagues still include the Kicker and Team Defense in the scoring. By rounds 14 and 15 we start seeing some of those going off the board, but there are position players with more upside potential. Professor John Bush is a wizard at finding the best streamers every week, so I am confident I will pass until late rounds in those positions. 

RB: Audric Estime

QB: Justin Herbert

QB: Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford (These QBs only as QB2 on your team in this round) 

WR: Demario Douglas

TE: Ben Sinnott, Chigoziem Okonkwo (Only as your second TE) 

Round Sixteen

My late-round sleeper at TE is of solid value in this round. Many fantasy football analysts argue that Johnu Smith should be avoided because the Miami offense doesn’t use the TE position. Why did they add him as a Free Agent if they didn’t plan to use him? If I punted the TE position, I might even consider picking him as high as the 14th or 15th rounds. 

TE: John Smith

RB: Tank Bigsby

WR: Marvin Mims, Demarcus Robinson, Wan’Dale Robinson

Round Seventeen

The talent level is getting very lean in the draft, tempting you to choose between DEF and K, but I would hold off one more round. The round preference also goes away here for the final rounds, so each one of these players will likely be available in rounds 18-20. Some of these “Deep Picks” might not make the final roster cut on Monday so be ready to swap them out before week one. 

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis 

WR: Quentin Johnson, Luke McCaffrey, Tyler Boyd, Javon Baker, KJ Osborn, Jermaine Burton, Andrei Iosivas, Malachi Corley

RB: Jordan Mason, Will Shipley, Carson Steele, Clyde Edwards Helaire, Rasheen Ali, Malik Davis, Sione Vaki, Cam Akers, Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson, Dylan Laube, Jeff Wilson, Kevin Harris, Jamaal Williams, Eric Gray, Cordarelle Patterson, Issac Guerrendo, Chris Rodriguez

TE: Hayden Hurst. Theo Johnson 

Rounds Eighteen Through Twenty

Because I often have some “Deep Sleeper” type players that I think will be available in the final round, I will use rounds 18 and 19 to fill out my starting defense and kicker. But remember, I am always confident I can stream both positions all season. Here are my top 5 targets for DEF and K. 

DEF: HOU, KC, PHL, NO (Great first-week stream), CHI

K: Butker, Elliott, Fairbairn, Moody, Sanders

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis 

WR: Quentin Johnson, Luke McCaffrey, Jordan Whittington, Tyler Boyd, Javon Baker, KJ Osborn, Jermaine Burton, Andrei Iosivas, Malachi Corley

RB: Jordan Mason, Will Shipley, Carson Steele, Clyde Edwards Helaire, Rasheen Ali, Malik Davis, Sione Vaki, Cam Akers, Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson, Dylan Laube, Jeff Wilson, Kevin Harris, Jamaal Williams, Eric Gray, Cordarelle Patterson, Issac Guerrendo, Chris Rodriguez

TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders, Hayden Hurst. Theo Johnson 

Conclusion

Depending on the Bye weeks for my WR group, I might come out of a typical FPPC league with only four solid WRs. My roster will almost always include two QBs because I want to attempt to gain an advantage in certain weeks using the “Secret Sauce” developed by Professor John Bush on defensive matchups and Vegas odds. My team might have one or two TEs depending on the build. Let’s look at one of my completed teams as an example. (12-team league, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1 DEF, 1K. 10 Bench)

Selected from 1.12

QBs: Jordan Love and Jared Goff

RBs: Jamyrr Gibbs, Jonathon Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chase Brown, Nick Chubb, Kimani Vidal, Audric Estime, Will Shipley

WRs: Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Joshua Palmer, Mike Williams, Luke McCaffrey

TE: Johnnu Smith, Ja’Tavion Sanders

DEF: Chiefs

K: Fairburn

Picking from the 12th slot I had to get creative and with both Gibbs and Taylor still on the board, I made them my first two choices. I’m very pleased with my depth at RB and WR. Because I missed the elite TEs I waited until the 14th round to pick up Johnu Smith. This position was about 18 picks ahead of his ADP, but at that point, I wanted to ensure I got my last value TE left on the board. Speculating on the rookie with my 20th and final pick gives me some insurance if I am wrong about Smith. My QB picks will allow me to exploit matchups all season. 

Your roster build will look very different depending on your draft slot, but it’s possible to build a winning team from any position using the “Better Than Zero” game plan. My goal in every draft is to leave with three guaranteed RB starters for week one, a solid group of 4 WRs I can count on each week, and either an elite QB or two solid QBs that I can count on all season. Elite TE is a priority in my game plan, but as shown above, an effective team cannot be built without an elite TE. Good luck with your drafts this weekend!