Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Three

Usually, when we get to week three, we have learned a lot about how much better some team’s defenses have acquired and which players will be leading in volume going forward. This season, we have seen injuries change the dynamics of some teams in drastic ways, and other injuries change teams’ approaches. As a Fantasy Football Manager, I’m learning why my “Better Than Zero” strategy has been so successful in recent seasons. It’s all about having options at RB every week while having elite guys at other positions that simplify the lineup decisions. Weekly Values, Consistency Ratings, and my new MVP Index show which players need to be matchup-only plays versus which guys are every-week studs. As each week passes, the 2023 season gets more heavily weighted in Weekly Values to see the rising stars at each position. Let’s see who leads the pack after three weeks of action.

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” Using a two-year data window, the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football. This is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player.

Consistency Rating- Many people say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game.

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible outcomes each week that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players.

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This gets added to our chart for the first time in week two.

QB Weekly Value

After three weeks, we are right back to where we were at the start of the season with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the clear top 2 QBs in Fantasy Football. Jalen Hurts was forecast to be in that elite group but has been just solid, not spectacular, to start the new season. Justin Herbert and Tua Tagliavoa are the two rising stars up to 4th and 8th, respectively. As the 2023 season continues to be weighted more heavily, look for DeShaun Watson to drop unless he has another solid game, and Justin Fields has fallen to 21st best. CJ Stroud is leading in the Fantasy Rookie QB of the Year chase and is a reliable 11th place among all QBs after three weeks.

RB Weekly Value

Two of the top 10 RBs in Weekly Value missed their game last week, which shows the state of the position in Fantasy Football this season. Two of the toughest players to rate after three weeks of action are Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane of the Dolphins. They won’t get to play the Broncos every week, and they are likely to split a lower volume in the weeks ahead, but both jumped up to the Top 10 with their record-setting performances. Achane’s pre-season ranking was in the mid-30s, which was higher than his ADP of RB40. Derrick Henry’s value will drop sharply after next week unless he has a King Henry-type performance. Ekeler and CMC are again the clear 1-2 punch at the top this week.

TE Weekly Value

As expected, there are only two elite TEs in Fantasy Football, but they might have company soon. Rookie TE Sam LaPorta could re-write the record books for rookies, and is everything that Fantasy Football Managers have wanted Kyle Pitts to be for years! LaPorta’s stock will rise fast if he can post another 15+ point game this week. When another week of 2023 gets added to the weighting, we could see fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid slide fast along with veterans Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, and Dallas Goedert. After Kittle and Hockenson are at 3 and 4 in the rankings, it gets very lean at the TE position.

WR Weekly Value

Keenan Allen moved up to 6th place this week following another fantastic performance. It will be interesting to see how that dynamic Chargers offense handles the loss of Mike Williams. Their defense and lack of a solid rushing game without Ekeler in the lineup has made the passing game even more critical, which has been great for Allen’s Fantasy value. Davante Adams continues to show that he is QB-proof and that the Raiders offense will play from behind a lot, too. After three weeks of play, the top four continue to have a significant edge on the rest of the field. Michael Pittman and Adam Thielen are rising, while Garret Wilson continues to fall.

Conclusion

My Weekly Values formula is set up to prevent one huge week from skewing the results too much, but it is being put to the challenge with the Madden-like scores being posted this season by the Miami Dolphins. Please adjust the defensive strength against them on the season settings. I will be adding the new MVP Index to the QB position by next week. Different from the other positions that can be graded in such a way to make Flex decisions more straightforward, the QB position rankings will probably only be a good comparison among fellow QBs and not across all positions. Good luck in week four.