MVP Rankings Week 17

MVP23 Index for the Fantasy Football Playoff Finals

Time flies when you are having fun, and we have reached the Fantasy Football Finals. Before and during the season, I believe in using a more extensive data set than the current year to understand better what might happen next. But once the playoffs for our fake football leagues arrive, all that matters to me when comparing players is what happened this season. The MVP23 Index chases what matters most in fantasy football. By comparing one player to the other, you are considering starting to use this statistical tool, which has shown great success during beta testing this season. Let’s dive deep into the data and how to use it to win the championship! 

MVP23 Index Explained

The three things that matter most in Fantasy Football are in the formula that makes up the MVP23 Index. As you might have guessed from the name, the only data that counts for this calculation are games played this season. The three things that matter most in Fantasy Football are consistency, prominent point game ability, and the percentage of lousy games played. If there are four or more games to compare for each player, the MVP23 Index reduces the effect of injuries when comparing players. Only players that played many snaps throughout the season are included in this report. Point-per-reception scoring rules were used with standard yardage points and 6 points for all passing touchdowns. 

MVP23 at QB

I show the healthy players heading into the Fantasy Football Finals this week. Mason Rudolph will get another start, but there wasn’t enough data for 2023 to rank him here. His career MVP Index is 0% based on only nine complete games played for reference. Jarret Stidham has not played enough full games for an accurate career MVP Index. Over the past five seasons, the MVP Index for the Giants' expected starter, Tyrod Taylor, for full games played was -14.3%. 

MVP23 at RB 

This week, for reference, I showed the injured players at the RB position, which are indicated with their numbers in red just for reference of what is being missed at the end of the season for possible production. Christian McCaffrey is having an incredible season, and his MVP Index for this season alone is identical to last season’s number, showing that he is the undisputed best RB in Fantasy Football again this season. While Zamir White has only two complete games played, both were solid double-digit games. It’s important not to accept this data as gospel until at least five games have been played.

MVP23 at WR

Players on IR are also shown in red for the WR position to show what we are missing heading into the finals of Fantasy Football. Last week in the semifinals, I experimented with a five-game rolling average for the MVP Index in some of my beta test leagues. That data convinced me to bench Stephon Diggs in favor of Amari Cooper. More testing on the five-game rolling average will be done in the offseason to see if that data should be included in my weekly analysis.

MVP23 at TE

The loss of TJ Hockenson for the Fantasy Football finals will hurt badly! Josh Oliver’s career MVP Index and MVP Index for 2023 in full games played is -50%, but that data is inconclusive because he has too few games where he was the primary starting TE, as he will be this week.  My best guess is to expect the replacement level of performance, which has typically been about 60-70% of the starters' value for a range of 55-65%, which would translate to 6 to 12 points in a PPR format. Durham Smythe, whose fantasy production has not reached the threshold value to be included on this chart, does have a 3-game rolling average MVP Index of 0%. With Waddle hurt at WR, it might be a replacement option if you are desperate for a replacement.

Putting MVP23 Index to Work for You

This has been an exciting season of beta testing for the MVP Index. For many seasons, I have quantified each component that goes into the MVP Index, but this is the first year I have developed a formula to put this data into one easy-to-use number. Fifteen points is a tier difference between players. An index of 75 or greater should be an automatic play since they have shown success against good defenses in the past to score such a high MVP Index. For players lower than 75, I have used that 15-point difference as the first step in deciding who to start. Players within 15 points get analyzed for defensive matchup advantages using the Professor’s data here on the Science of Fantasy Football. Good luck, and win that Championship!