Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Eight 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year I introduced a new in-season metric that combines four different ratings to come up with a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week eight. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. 

I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, which is weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more every week while continuing to use the past data which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (+1) One of those rare occasions where the QB who should be the leading contender for the real MVP award is also the MVP of Fake Football 

2. Joe Burrow (+1): When he misses one of his top two WRs, he sometimes has a down week, which worries me for the future.

3. Josh Allen (-2): The top three are in a virtual tie for the top spot and have a solid lead, so minor shuffling from week to week can be expected

4. Jordan Love (NC): Two years in a row, he has been a super value in Fantasy Football, with only injuries slowing him down this season.

5. Jalen Hurts (+2) Tush pushed his way up two spots back in the top five overall

6. Jayden Daniels (NC) Head-to-head for best rookie with Caleb Williams in real football, but his rushing yards keep him at best rookie by far in fake football

7. Jared Goff (-2) As the Lions' defense continues to get better, look for the team to rush more, which could limit his upside in fantasy football

8. Baker Mayfield (NC) lost his best two wide receivers but continues to have a career year. He will need to throw early and often with a weaker Bucs defense. 

9. Brock Purdy (+2) Gives you the occasional spike week with higher rushing yards and will get reinforcements to the passing game with CMC coming back after the bye week

10. Trevor Lawrence (+8) had his best game of the year last week while other QBs struggled, and he is in a tight pack from 10th to 18th right now.

11. Patrick Mahomes (+6) His Class has kept him from falling too far, and the addition of more talent at WR should help him rise back into the Top 8 soon

12. Kyler Murray (+3) Has lacked consistency this year, but the offense is starting to look solid, and the team is leading the division in real football 

13. Sam Darnold (+1) Amazing how you can go from a franchise quarterback to a bridge quarterback when you lose two in a row after winning the first five 

14. Kirk Cousins (+7) In this crowded pack from 10th to 18th, you can see a huge surge if you have a good game.

15. Dak Prescott (+1) Junk time yardage and TDs count just the same as fantasy points accrued in the first quarter 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 include CJ Stroud at 16th and Anthony Richardson at 29th 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC) Remember when we used to see older RBs signed as free agents, and we could write them off because they were over 28? The King is still the King!

2. Kyren Williams (NC): Throw away all those advanced metrics that show how inefficient Kyren has been because he continues to get the volume needed to be on top

3. Jahmyr Gibbs (+1) The forecast was for a little more volume to push him into the top 3, and that forecast was right on the money

4. Saquon Barkley (-1) Remember when the fantasy football Twitter world told us he would lose too many goal-line carries to Hurts, which would kill his fake football value? 

5. Joe Mixon (+2) Has been over double the historic median production in every single game he has played all four quarters

6. Bijan Robinson (+3) is Having a great second season, but his fake football managers will still complain any time another RB gets a carry

7. Alvin Kamara (-1) Imagine how great this guy would be on a real offense with a real QB. 

8. De’Von Achane (+3) Jumped three spots with the return of Tua, and Tua wasn’t even as good as the pre-concussion Tua yet

9. Josh Jacobs (+3) Continues to be consistently excellent week in and week out for a team that scores a lot of points

10. Ken Walker (-5) Had a bad game on an off-track last week, but getting into the rainy season in Seattle 

11. Breece Hall (-3) This offense has so many weapons but is being led by a 40-year-old QB who can’t move in the pocket anymore 

12. Jonathon Taylor's (-2) Switch of QBs should help all the skill position players in fake football, including JT.

13. Aaron Jones (NC): My only concern with him was if he could stay healthy, and so far, so good

14. David Montgomery (+2) is Still worthy of playing in your fake football lineup every week, even if you also roster Gibbs.

15. James Conner (+2) When this offense is good, it’s been excellent, but too often, it’s been average. 

16. D’Andre Swift (+2) The entire Bears offense didn’t show up until the 4th quarter last week, which is a big concern if that becomes a pattern

17. Austin Ekeler (-3) Has stayed exactly one rating point ahead of his fellow Commander RB for the last two weeks based on his Back Class 

18. Brian Robinson (-3) Has continued to be super consistent all season for the second straight year

19. James Cook (+2) Finally looked like the player that people expected when they took him at RB13 in ADP this season

20. Rachaad White (+9) Responded well to the coach speak of playing the hot hand 

21. Tony Pollard (+2) The only thing holding him back from being in the Top 15 is a sluggish offense

22. Jordan Mason (-3) Expect CMC to take over the top spot and the rookie to also cut into whatever volume is leftover 

23. Rhamondre Stevenson (+9) Having the type of season that is better in Best Ball than fixed lineups

24. Tank Bigsby (+3) The entire offense has looked better with the Tank than ETN

25. Chuba Hubbard (-5) The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football RBs

26. Najee Harris (-1) Might not be a bad RB to try to acquire for the second half of the season

27. JK Dobbins (+1) is Not tremendous but doesn’t make mistakes, and that has kept the rookie from cutting into his volume so far

28. Isiah Pacheco (-2) Should return just in time for the fantasy football playoffs, but the coach will probably split the volume to keep both RBs fresh for the real playoffs

29. Tyrone Tracy (+8) Sadly in the concussion protocol and could miss a week

30. Travis Etienne (-8) Could get Wally Pipp out of his job and a solid role in fake football

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: NONE except for the injured players not eligible for the list yet 

WR Position

1. Justin Jefferson (NC) is the top rated WR based on the consensus weekly values, and it’s not even close

2. Cee Dee Lamb (+3) The top performance last week moved him up in the rankings this week.

3. Ja’Marr Chase (+1) Had this third 20+ PPR point game of the season and only has one game less than 10 points

4. Malik Nabers (-1) The best rookie WR this season and one of two rookies in the top 10

5. Amon Ra St Brown (-3) One bad week dropped him three spots, showing how close it is right now from WR3 to WR7 in weekly value

6. AJ Brown (+1) Four for four this season in games above historic median production

7. Nico Collins (+1): The Texans desperately need him back from the IR list with the loss of Diggs

8. Stefon Diggs (+1): The season-ending knee injury will drop him off this list next week.

9. Brian Thomas Jr (+1) His +40-weekly value versus ADP is the most impressive of any WR in the top 30, which is even more amazing for a rookie

10. DeVonta Smith (+8) Great bounce-back week moved him into the top 10 this week

11. Garret Wilson (+3) The addition of another alpha WR type has seemed to help his weekly value

12. Mike Evans (+1) With the loss of Godwin for the season, the Bucs desperately need him back.

13. Jayden Reed (-2) An impressive +20-weekly value to ADP but battling some injuries

14. DK Metcalf (+2) Another must-start WR battling injury issues

15. DJ Moore (-3) The entire Bears offense was missing in action for 3 quarters last week

16. Tee Higgins (-1): Where will he land next season? It might be a good time to be a buyer in Dynasty

17. Cooper Kupp (NC): The Rams got the band back together last week and looked like the old Rams again 

18. Terry McLaurin (+3) The only WR in Washington who is a threat, and teams still can’t stop him 

19. Deebo Samuel (+1): Without Aiyuk for the rest of the season, Deebo will need to shine

20. Zay Flowers (+2) Trade for Dionte Johnson might affect his volume going forward

21. Davante Adams (-2) Fifteen targets in two games with the Jets but still doesn’t have a solid game to show for the volume

22. Tyreek Hill (+2) Cheetah says we can start him again in fake football with the return of Tua, and I’m not about to argue with him 

23. Marvin Harrison Jr (+2) Exploded for his second 20+ PPR point game of the season but has four games of 5 or fewer points

24. Drake London (-1) His presence is opening the field for Pitts and Mooney, but so far, he is not living up to his ADP of WR11

25. Jakobi Meyers (+2) Should be a solid WR play in fake football regardless of below-average QB play this season

26. Puka Nacua (+15) Saw about 15% fewer snaps than usual in his first game back but was the leader in targets with 9

27. Josh Downs (+10): Another big week for this exciting playmaker who seems to be taking over as the top WR on his team

28. Khalil Shakir (+5) Might be the best playmaker at WR for the Bills, even with the addition of Amari Cooper

29. Allen Lazard (+3) His weekly value should drop once Adams becomes more familiar with the Jets offense

30. George Pickens (-1) is a Solid playmaker who just doesn’t seem to get open often enough to move into the top 20 in weekly value 

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Chris Olave at 33rd and Jaylen Waddle at 51st 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC): The top-rated TE should continue to feast with Aiyuk out, but the return of CMC on his volume will need to be watched

2. Brock Bowers (NC) Might change the way the Fantasy Football world thinks about rookie TEs, but he might be the exception to the rule

3. Travis Kelce (+2) Looked like the old Kelce last week, and that was without Taylor in the audience

4. Trey McBride (-1) Only dropped one spot because Kelce took back his rightful place in the top 3

5. David Njoku (+3) The change at QB for the Browns should continue to raise his stock

6. Mark Andrews (NC) Early season struggles are behind him 

7. Cole Kmet (-3): A return to the type of down games that keeps him out of the top 5

8. Dallas Goedert (-1) Lingering injuries are a concern for his future value for the rest of the season

9. Kyle Pitts (+5) His streak of 4 games in a row of 10+ PPR points is a new record for him

10. Zach Ertz (-1) The Professor’s strategy of drafting Ertz to go with Hockenson worked well

11. Tucker Kraft (+1) Whether he will have the type of consistency you want in a fake football TE with so many WR options with the Packers is still in doubt

12. Evan Engram (+3) The only thing that has limited his weekly value in fake football is injuries

13. Taysom Hill (-2) The lack of scoring with the Saints without Carr in the lineup is a concern

14. Sam LaPorta (+4) Had only his second 10+ PPR point game of the season last week

15. Dalton Kincaid (+2) There might be too many other weapons on the Bills right now for him to be much better than 10 to TE 15 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15 Jake Ferguson at 18th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football in the near future. This is a live beta test, so remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in week nine!