Philosophically Speaking: A Fantasy Football Story at TE

The greatest thing about Fantasy Football is the variety of games available. For many years, back in the day, all you had was your primary Redraft league. Satisfying, but it could get stale if that’s all you ever played. Then, some inventive minds decided that a Keeper League was a great idea since you could keep some of your favorite players for multiple seasons. Next came Dynasty Leagues, which let you pretend to be a genuine GM, albeit in Fake Football, and build a dynasty through trades or in the draft. The idea of Best Ball leagues emerged somewhere in a different Fantasy Football universe. These draft-and-forget-it leagues were attractive to people who love to draft too many teams but don’t have time to handle the week-to-week decisions of more than 20 leagues. In recent years, leagues have been added with individual defensive players, and there is a type of league for everyone! It would be tedious to have vanilla ice cream; likewise, playing only one fantasy football format would be boring. Philosophically speaking, there isn’t a “harder” or “easier” format and, indeed, not a “better” format. Let’s look at some areas where the formats require a different strategy.

Editor’s Note: Unsure of what terms used by DMIC mean? Check the glossary at the end.

Basic Strategy Declaration

If anyone tells you there is only one preferred way to win in Fantasy Football, that person giving you advice hasn’t been playing long enough to watch strategy decisions evolve or is feeding you a line of bull. A few years ago, in a league against Fantasy Football analysts, I was in the 12th position in a 12-team redraft league. The banter before the draft was about who would be the first to take a QB and TE among people who constantly preach “Late QB” and “Streaming TE” strategies to their readers and podcast listeners. I said, “Any strategy can be a winning one,” and was mocked for that opinion in the chat. Since all the “Safe RBs” and “Value WRs” were gone by the 12th pick, I decided to open the draft with a QB and a TE to make a point. Grabbing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce at the one/two turn was against the grain in a so-called “Expert League.” I would only lose one game during the regular season and lose to the same guy in the playoffs when Alvin Kamara went off with his 5-TD game. The story's moral is that ANY strategy can win if executed in Fantasy Football in ANY format. The advice included in this article is just a general suggestion of methods that have worked well for me in many leagues in the past. Let’s look at WR for this season.

TE Strategy Differences Over Time

Each position in fantasy football has been more consistently consistent with advice from fantasy football managers than the TE position. That’s been the case for 30+ years, and I have played this fantastic game! Streaming TEs was probably the closest thing to a strategy most Fantasy Football analysts advised for many years. Total points at a position never matters as much as the difference between the various tiers.

Last year, there was an 8% drop in weekly value from TE1 to TE2 and 20% from TE1 to TE3. The difference from TE1 to TE12 was an astonishing 77%. Professor John Bush’s Box and Whisker plots at TE here at the Science of Fantasy Football have shown that the elite TE advantage has grown in all formats, making it worthwhile to overpay for the position. Adding new talent at the position might enlarge that “Elite TE” population from 2-3 per season to 3-5 per season. The massive advantage to the rest of the population will be just as significant.

Premium TE Leagues

How a TE Premium is calculated incredibly impacts how valuable that scoring rule can be in Fantasy Football. But even a 1-point advantage per reception with an additional point per first down, such as the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament scoring this year, still limits the “Premium” to the best 3-5 TEs in the league. That’s because most of the non-elite TEs' scoring in bigger point games comes from TDs rather than their 2-3 receptions per game.

If a TE Premium league multiplied all TE Points scored by a multiplier rather than a reception bonus, then all TEs would have that premium value. These schemes make those elite TEs worth even more than some WR1 and RB1 level players, moving their weekly value up a full round from their usual ADP. The TEs below median scoring do not gain significant value versus their non-premium ADP.

Start 2 TE Leagues

When you are in a league that makes it mandatory to start 2 TEs instead of 1, you must ensure that the first TE selected for your team is an elite player. If you can roster two elite TEs, you will have a huge advantage in such a league. If I were selected from the 12th position in a 12-team league that starts 2 TEs, I would draft the first two TEs in that league to build that advantage if they were the first two off the draft board. You must also roster 3-4 TEs in a league where you must start two TEs every week.

Redraft Rules of Thumb

In today’s Fantasy Football Redraft world, having an elite TE on your team is more important than ever. The gap between TE5 and TE22 is often not that large, so if you miss out on the top 4, punt the position and stream your TE instead. While I’m always not eager to pay the higher premium on the top TE in the draft, I plan to lock up the position once that first TE is selected. This year, Dalton Kincaid and Mark Andrews might be the best values going late 2nd/early 3rd in TE Premium leagues and as late as early 5th round in leagues without a premium at TE. Later picks with upside include Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, and Pat Freiermuth. Grabbing TJ Hockenson and a second TE is also a great strategy since it’s unknown how many games Hockenson might miss. Noah Fant, John Smith, Jelani Woods, and Chigoziem Okonkwo are good speculative picks, but they are very late in the draft this season.

Dynasty Draft Rules of Thumb

While I am a big proponent of elite TEs in all formats of Fantasy Football, they are even more valuable in Dynasty formats. The second and third rounds in Dynasty drafts are also a great time to speculate on the next impactful TE, especially if you have a Taxi Squad to hide that player off your active roster for 1-2 seasons. The older TEs can be drafted at a great value in new Dynasty leagues. Even if I roster an elite TE on my Dynasty roster, I also like to have a few guys with upside value. They also make excellent trade bait for needed starters at other positions if they break out with an outstanding season.

Best Ball Leagues

Drafting an elite TE is less critical in this format but can still be a successful strategy. My basic rule is that the earlier I take a TE in the Best Ball draft, the longer I can wait to draft my second and third players. I like to roster three and sometimes four players in a typical 20-player roster. The upside is all that matters at this position in Best Ball, so I look for solid offenses and guys with a history of being an excellent red zone target. One of my favorite strategies is to have one player from each tier at the TE position. Grab your elite TE from the top 4 early, grab a second TE in the Top 15 later, and then exit the draft with a late-round upside choice.

Conclusion

No fixed strategy system works every time! ANY strategy can be turned into a winning one if you hit on your value picks later in the draft and avoid injuries. An adaptive strategy like my “Better Than Zero” game plan is always better than “Zero RB” or “Elite QB or TE.” If you draft multiple leagues, your rosters should look very different naturally, depending on your starting slot and the strategies being employed by your fellow team managers.

Even if you are drafted against the same 11-team managers, your rosters should look different regarding the number of QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you hold yourself to a carved-in-stone roster makeup, you need to be more adaptive. If you have a solid game plan, you will be more successful but have better results in those leagues where you anticipate the moves. Stay tuned for my rules of thumb at other positions and my updated article about my “Better Than Zero” strategy, which will be coming soon, along with my safe studs and value plays articles. Good luck this season!

Glossary of Terms

One of the biggest challenges is the need for definitive definitions for some article terms. Below is an explanation of each term I used that might have multiple meanings in the Fantasy Football World.

Breakout Player: A player expected to have their first excellent season in Fantasy Football.

Plus One: The lower-rated player or late draft pick you ask to be added to a deal in Fantasy Football.

Back Class: A term borrowed from horse race handicapping. Applied to fantasy football, this refers to a veteran player with a history of high performance.

TE Premium: A league rule that gives bonus points for receptions to TE more than other positions.

Sniped: Having the player you wanted in the next round take a few picks before your turn. This result can ruin your hopes of handcuffing a player in a split backfield situation.

Play Em Both Strategy: Playing the top two RBs on the same team in your weekly lineup the same week in Fantasy Football.

Handcuff: Having the logical backup to your starter in Fantasy Football.

Bell Cow RB: An RB that gets a high percentage of the touches at the RB position for his team. This might have been considered 30 or more touches many years ago, but now that expected touches have dropped significantly.

RBBC: Running Back by Committee is a term for when a coach uses a variety of RBs on his team in equal proportions.

Elite QB or TE: A QB or TE selected early in a Fantasy Football draft will be in the top 80% in weekly value scoring.

Weekly Value: Judging players’ ability on a weekly statistical tool rather than year-end totals or points per game calculations established throughout an entire season.

Late QB Strategy: Select a QB well past the median time of the draft when your opponents selected their QB.

Streaming TE or QB: Using multiple starters every week is based on the expected defensive matchup instead of using the same starter for most weeks in the season.

Expert League: A league made up of other fantasy football analysts or players who are highly proficient in that format.

Tournament Style: A significant entry league with multiple divisions and a playoff system at the end of the year to crown a grand champion. Scott Fish Bowl is an example of such a league.

Fantasy Football Diary: A notebook or computer file containing notes about your draft, waiver moves, and results, which can help you improve your ability in fantasy football from one season to the next.

Fixed Strategy: A game plan used by a team manager that always follows a set script for when to draft players at different positions. Zero RB is one example of a popular fixed strategy that is frequently used.

Zero RB Strategy: A fixed strategy system that dictates fading the RB position in favor of other positions, usually setting a minimum round number to select your first RB for the season.

Adaptive Strategy: A game plan used by a team manager in a draft that constantly adjusts as each selection is being made during the draft, the goal of which is to select as many elite players at different positions as possible.