Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Four

This week, I will debut a new way to look at the value of fantasy football. Anyone who has

I listened to the Professor and me on our podcast, and I know that quite a bit of my forecasting concepts from fantasy football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an "Index" is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. 

This week, I introduce a new Fantasy Football rating system that attempts to add three ingredients into one consensus rating. Let's look at the ratings after week four.

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we frequently chase last week's points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. 

The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The final ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football.

QB Position

1) Josh Allen: It should be no surprise that he leads the way. Last week was his first way below median performance in the previous two-plus seasons.

2) Joe Burrow: Tied for third in the BEST Index for 2024, Burrow also has the back class needed to maintain a high performance all season, and the Bengals' defense is below average, too.

3) Lamar Jackson: He has been one of the most consistent QBs all season. His rushing upside will keep him in the Top 6 all season.

4) Jordan Love came back from injury to post another strong game. Has a great set of receivers on an offense that should continue to score lots of points all season.

5) Jalen Hurts: This Eagles offense struggled without AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith last week, but both should come back healthy after the Bye Week.

6) Patrick Mahomes has not had a 3 TD game since week seven last year. Already lost his top RB and WR, and with the strong Chiefs defense, he no longer must light the world on fire every week.

7) Jayden Daniels: The best rookie quarterback in fantasy football in many years. (Sorry, CJ Stroud fans) He will need to continue his hot start to move up the rankings.

8) Dak Prescott: The lack of a consistent running game with the Cowboys this season will continue to put more and more of the load on Dak.

9) CJ Stroud: Finally showed us some of that form from late last year last week. Has so many weapons on this offense, he should be very consistent all season.

10) Brock Purdy: He is never that flashy but always seems to have a consistent performance. His defense is strong, so he won't need to put up huge point totals.

11) Sam Darnold: Too many in Fantasy Football wrote off Justin Jefferson because they didn't expect much from Darnold and were very wrong.

12) Jared Goff: Large home/away splits have kept him from being any higher in the rankings, but he only gets three games outdoors all season.

13) Justin Fields: Took over as a starter with the Steelers because of Russell Wilson's injury but is not going to give that starting role back any time soon based on merit.

14) Kyler Murray: The stars seemed to be aligned for him this season with the addition of a great rookie WR, but the performance has been inconsistent.

15) Geno Smith: The coaching change has made him look like one of the top QBs in the league. If he can continue his hot start, he will readily move into the Top 10.

Notable QBs outside the Top 15 include Tua Tagliavoa at 16th, Trevor Lawrence at 17th, and Anthony Richardson at 20th.

RB Position

1) Kyren Williams: Too many in the Fantasy Football Analyst world went wild when Blake Corum was drafted. They lost their minds further when Kyren was named punt returner.

2) Saquon Barkley: The only question heading into the 2024 season was whether he would get the volume needed to be a Top 3 RB, and so far, he has gotten the required heavy volume.

3) De'Von Achane: He started the season great, as did the Dolphins offense. The lack OF Tua at QB has turned that offense into one of the worst in the league.

4) Derrick Henry: Many Fantasy Football analysts said the King was too old to rein again. He proved he is as fast as ever last week with an 87-yard run.

5) Alvin Kamara: One of the RBs that the combined data set of the Professor and I loved heading into the 2024 season.

6) Jordan Mason: The injury to Christian McCaffrey has elevated him into a starting role and solidly into the Top 6 at RB in Fantasy Football.

7) Jamyr Gibbs Continues to split time with David Montgomery, but both RBs have gotten off to a terrific start to the 2024 season.

8) Austin Ekeler: The way the metric uses past data will elevate him a little too high early in the season, but he has posted three double-digit PPR point games in 3 games.

9) Breece Hall: He posted a considerable game dud last week, but his previous efforts were outstanding. My only concern is a possible volume split with the talented rookie Braelon Allen.

10) Jonathon Taylor: While the Colts offense has been consistently inconsistent to start the season, JT is off to a solid start.

11) Aaron Jones: Another one of the older RBs switching teams that too many expected to see struggle. The only concern for him has always been his ability to stay healthy.

12) James Conner: The "Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Football RBs," he has been the one

That was a consistent force on an otherwise very inconsistent offense this season.

13) Bijan Robinson: One of the top-drafted RBs this season, he has been consistent but not It is spectacular to start the year.

14) Josh Jacobs Has hit double-digit points in 3 of 4 starts this season but has not had that big game yet.

15) Brian Robinson: There was some doubt on how potent this Commanders offense would be, and how much volume would he lose to Ekeler? So far, the offense is potent, and so is his volume.

16) Kenneth Walker: A few more big games like last week will boost his rankings quickly, but the emergence of Zach Charbonnet might limit his upside.

 17) Joe Mixon: He got a great start before getting hurt. If he can come back as a solid startingthis week, he will quickly move into the Top 10.

18) David Montgomery: The "Play Em Both" strategy has worked well so far this season, and Monty has scored double-digit PPR points in each game.

19) Tony Pollard: The Titans have gotten awful QB play by Will Levis, which has held back the offense considerably, but Pollard is the one consistent upside performer.

20) James Cook: Loses too many short rushing attempts to his QB, which keeps him from being any higher in these rankings.

21) Rhamondre Stevenson might have worked his way into the Coaches' doghouse after fumbling early and often last week.

22) Chase Brown: He had a solid performance in his first game, where he got 40% or more of the snaps, but still in an RBBC situation.

23) Travis Ettienne: This Jaguars offense has been in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, which keeps this dynamic from being in the Top 15.

24) JK Dobbins: It's been an excellent start to the 2024 campaign, but his lower back class keeps him from reaching the Top 15 in these ratings.

25) Isiah Pacheco: Sad to see an injury derail the great start to his season. Stays in the ratings, but will not be returning until late in the season.

26) Chuba Hubbard: While waiting on the rookie RB they drafted to take away his job, he has put up It was a solid start to the 2024 season and was even better after the switch in QBs.

27) Zach Moss: He could be on his way to either a split backfield situation, which could lower his value even more, or losing his starting job completely.

28) D'Andre Swift: The Rams defense was his best friend last week and allowed him to have his It was the biggest game in Fantasy Football in his career.

29) Rachaad White: Has not looked very strong so far this season and lost volume to rookie Bucky Irving last week.

30) Najee Harris: Fought off losing the starting spot but has been posting below-median results on an offense that has been better than expected.

Notable RBs outside the Top 30 include Raheem Mostert at 31st, Javonte Williams at 37th, and Jaylen Warren at 41st.

WR Position

1) Justin Jefferson: There was some uncertainty over his weekly values with the significant change at QB this season, but Darnold has turned out to be better than Cousins.

2) Malik Nabers: After four weeks, the undisputed best rookie WR this year. Can you imagine what his weekly value might be with a better QB.

3) CeeDee Lamb: Dak hasn't even played his best football yet this season, but Lamb is off to a great start, and his back class shows he should easily stay in the Top 3.

4) Amon Ra St Brown: Over the past couple of seasons, there has been a vast road and home split ARSB has a solid top 5 weekly value for the Lion's offense, even on the road.

5) Stephon Diggs: The trade to the Texans and the presence of Nico Collins were considered a threat to his value, this offense supports two top WRs in fake football.

6) Ja'Marr Chase: There was concern about his commitment to the Bengals without a new contract, but he is off to a solid start.

7) Nico Collins: He has been slightly better on the upside than his fellow WR, but their difference in the back class has Collins two spots behind Diggs.

8) Jayden Reed: His rookie season didn't win over too many Fantasy Football analysts, but the Professor and I had him rated much higher than his ADP, and we were right.

9) Mike Evans: Why do Fantasy Football players allow him to slide outside the Top 12 WRs every season? Once again, he is showing why he is one of the most reliable WRs in fake football.

10) Davante Adams: The disgruntled WR has still been productive in a lousy offense and now is on the trade block. His value will remain unchanged if he goes to the Saints or Jets.

11) Tyreek Hill: The loss of Tua has crippled his weekly value, but he is still hanging on in the top 12. When Tua comes back, he should be back where he belongs in the Top 5.

12) Chris Godwin: He might be the best value in fantasy football this year at the WR position and is He is off to a great start, along with his fellow WR, who is still ranked a few spots higher.

13) Rashee Rice: While the Chiefs offense has not been as dynamic as expected, he still got off to a It was a great start before the freak knee injury, the severity of which is still unknown.

14) Deebo Samuel: When he is healthy and in the lineup, he is a Top 10 talent, even on an offense that doesn't need to score a massive number of points every week.

15) Cooper Kupp: That Rams offense was going to be very productive until injuries to Kupp and Nacua, but when Kupp returns, he will be a solid top-12 talent.

16) Devonta Smith: This season, I expected the two Eagles WRs to end up closer in value than last season, Smith edged out Brown by one spot.

17) AJ Brown: The only thing that has knocked AJB's weekly value down this season has been injury and he is supposed to be back at full speed next week.

18) DK Metcalf: After a slow start in week one, we have seen the Seahawks' best WR rising back up the rankings each week.

19) DJ Moore: I was a little concerned about what the new QB and the addition of two new WRs It would do to his value, which has indeed capped his upside.

20) Chris Olave: He also got off to a lousy start in week one but since then has returned to being a solid Top 20 WR in weekly value.

21) Marvin Harrison Jr: There were lofty expectations for MHJ, but his first four weeks have been capped by inconsistent QB play.

22) Keenan Allen: His Back Class boosts his rating to this spot, but his 2024 season on its own has him down at WR71 right now.

23) Brian Thomas Jr: The lack of competition to take over as the Alpha WR on the Jaguars is why he has already been able to start in the Top 25 in his rookie year.

24) Jordan Addison: An injury in week one dropped his value, but an intense week four return has him back up to the 24th position in weekly value.

25) Amari Cooper: He is another guy playing while on the trading block and is off to an OK but not terrific start. There are quite a few places where he could be traded, and his value could rise. 

26) Puka Nacua: His injury has cost quite a few Fantasy Football Managers a solid start to the season and it's still unknown when he will return.

27) Zay Flowers: If you looked at the receiving of his biggest target threats, his TEs, you would think that Flowers would be having a better start to his season.

28) Terry McLaurin: Look for his weekly value to rise if his rookie QB continues to play much betterthan expected for a rookie QB.

 29) Tank Dell: Another injured player whose weekly value is suffering, but his back class

keeps him barely in the Top 30.

30) Jayden Waddle: Another player whose weekly value has been severely limited due to the injury of his QB. If Tua returns healthy, look for Top 20 upside from Waddle quickly.

Notable WRs outside the Top 30 include Garret Wilson at 31st, Tee Higgins at 41st, Brandon Aiyuk at 44th, and Drake London at 49th.

TE Position

1) George Kittle: It's been a sad year for the highest-drafted TEs, but he has been the most solid starter every week this season.

2) Travis Kelce: He finally had a solid performance last week, but his back class, combined with a lack He has had great starts by other TEs and has been rated this high.

3) Taysom Hill: If he counts as a TE in your league, then he has been one of the better choices, even while only having one incredible week.

4) Dallas Goedert: He has benefited from the Eagles missing their top two WRs, but I would expect to see a continued Top 5 weekly value from Goedert after their Bye week.

5) Cole Kmet: He had one colossal week; the Bears threw the ball over 50 times, but one great week is all it takes to set yourself ahead of the TE pack this season.

6) Isiah Likely: He also had one massive week before not even being able to find his way into the lineup consistently over the last three weeks.

7) Mark Andrews: He was returning from an injury this season; it appeared that he was ready to go in week one, but in the last three weeks, he hasn't been on the field for more than 50% of the snaps.

8) Trey McBride: The Cardinals were supposed to be a solid offense, but Kyler Murray has not lived up to expectations, which keeps McBride out of the Top 5.

9) Sam LaPorta: The Lions have so many offensive weapons it's not surprising that their lead TE has gotten off to a slow start.

10) Brock Bowers: The Raiders offensive hasn't even been good enough to qualify as a "Dumpster Fire" but their rookie TE has more than lived up to expectations.

11) Zach Ertz: While the Commanders wait for their rookie to learn how to play in the NFL, Ertz has been showing the kid how to do it every week.

12) David Njoku: Injuries and a chaotic offensive situation in Cleveland have combined to keep him outside of the Top 10 in weekly value rankings so far in 2024.

13) Jake Ferguson: Two-thirds of the time in 2024, you have had a solid starter when Ferguson has been healthy, and a Top 8 finish in weekly value is within reach.

14) Dalton Kincaid: With a shortage of experienced WRs this season for the Bills, many expected Kincaid to step into a prominent role, but that hasn't happened so far.

15) Evan Engram: The only thing that has kept Engram from being one of the best TEs in the league. His inability to stay healthy has been the problem again this season.

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of three weekly values to come up with a real-time ranking system for the near future in Fantasy Football. This metric is a live Beta Test, so remember to consider that when using these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in week five!