The NFL Draft and Way Too Early Fantasy Value- First Round
Regarding talent evaluation coming into the NFL, I always trust the guys being paid big money to do this job over the Fantasy Football analysts or myself. Since we look at the game through a Fantasy Football lens, which can distort our view of players, we often overreact to moves made during the draft. But occasionally, a move is so stunning that we must sit back and figure it out logically.
When Michael Penix Jr was selected with the 8th pick in the first round after the Atlanta Falcons had already tied up Kirk Cousins on a free-agent deal, I was shocked by the move. The Falcons must be playing Chess while the rest of the NFL is playing checkers. Lately, however, that franchise hasn’t shown they could master the game of Chutes and Ladders!
Let’s look at the First Round of the NFL Draft from a Fantasy Football point of view for the offensive players. My Fantasy Rookie draft ratings are included for both Superflex and 1QB formats for the top 12.
Pick One: Caleb Williams QB USC to Chicago Bears
Many NFL scouts say he might be the most first-week-ready first pick chosen since Andrew Luck. Some say he might be the best off-script quarterback since Patrick Mahomes. If he ends up being 75% of those bold comparisons, he will be the best quarterback the franchise has ever had, and he would be awesome in Fantasy Football, too. Rated #1 in Superflex Leagues. Rated #4 in 1QB Leagues.
Pick Two: Jayden Daniels QB LSU to Washington Commanders
Before the NFL draft, I heard some Fantasy Football analysts say, “Running quarterbacks don’t have a great lifespan of success in the NFL.” But Daniels threw for 3800 yards last season. My biggest concern is that he only had one huge year in college, but that was his first time not changing offenses or offensive coordinators since high school. The upside is amazing! Rated #2 in Superflex. Rated #5 in 1QB.
Pick Three: Drake Maye QB NC to New England Patriots
Unlike Daniels, who was taken one pick earlier, Maye had a drop in statistics last season. But that can be explained away by the lack of receivers with Josh Downs's departure to the NFL. This quarterback is the perfect size to succeed in the NFL, but there is a long list of disappointing first-round quarterbacks who would also make that list. Rated #6 in Superflex. Rated #12 in 1QB.
Pick Four: Marvin Harrison Jr WR Ohio St to Arizona Cardinals
If you were creating the perfect NFL WR in the laboratory, he might look a lot like MHJ. Last year was his first time dealing with a less-than-NFL draft-worthy quarterback, and he seemed to glide through the season instead of dominating at times. The last WR taken in the first four rounds by the Cardinals ended up having a HOF career! Rated #3 in Superflex. Rated #1 in 1QB.
Pick Six: Malik Nabers WR LSU to New York Giants
Some guys ran faster than Nabers in shorts and a t-shirt, but nobody looked faster in college last season. This big-time playmaker instantly gets a great landing position as the alpha WR target hog. The last LSU WR the Giants drafted ended up having a great rookie season. Some might question being on an offense like the Giants, but I like this spot. Rated #4 Superflex. Rated #2 1QB.
Pick Eight: Michael Penix Jr QB Washington to Atlanta Falcons
The first seven picks of the 2024 NFL Draft made perfect sense, and then they got to number eight. I like Penix as a player, but I needed more time to pick him. The Falcons also signed free agent Kirk Cousins, who appears to be on schedule to play week one. Penix's past injuries and age make him a strange pick at 8 to be the quarterback of the future and a guy I will pass on for Fantasy Football. >12 Superflex or 1QB.
Pick Nine: Rome Odunze WR Washington to Chicago Bears
The Bears made sure their first-round pick, a franchise-changing quarterback hopeful, got another great weapon to throw to in year one. Odunze has great size, speed, and body control and is Chicago-style tough, having played through injuries last season. Many in the Fantasy Football world will be cautious about drafting him too early, making comparisons to Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year. He is rated #8 in Superflex and #6 in 1QB.
Pick Ten: JJ McCarthy QB Michigan to Minnesota Vikings
When the Vikings decided not to overpay for a good but aging QB, they thought they might need to make a big trade to move up to get their guy. They only had to move up one spot to get their next good QB at a much lower price tag. This landing position is excellent for McCarthy in Fantasy Football if the Vikings hold on to their stud WR. Rated #5 Superflex. Rated #11 in 1QB.
Pick Twelve: Bo Nix QB Oregon to Denver Broncos
The horrible trade for Russell Wilson set this franchise back in draft capital and put them in salary cap hell this season. So far, the Sean Payton experiment hasn’t been much better. Can he turn another less-than-perfect-size quarterback into a great quarterback again like he did with Brees? I would bet against lightning striking twice, so I am cold on Nix in Fantasy Football. >12 Superflex or 1QB.
Pick Thirteen: Brock Bowers TE Georgia to Las Vegas Raiders
Many in the Fantasy Football world went into convulsions when this pick was made. “But the Raiders already have Michael Mayer, who will be this year’s Trey McBride!” Mayer is a better real NFL TE than Fantasy Football elite TE prospect. Adding Bowers to that lineup gives them a boost on offense and was the classic “Best Player Available” choice, too. Rated #10 in Superflex. Rated #8 in 1QB.
Pick Twenty-Three: Brian Thomas Jr WR LSU to Jacksonville Jaguars
This is one of my favorite picks in the first round of the NFL draft for Fantasy Football ramifications. Thomas can instantly become the alpha WR in that lineup, although he played second fiddle to Nabers in college. Other than landing with the Buffalo Bills, this might have been one of the more friendly landing spots available. Rated #7 in Superflex. Rated #3 in 1QB.
Pick Twenty-Eight: Xavier Worthy WR Texas to Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs traded up to get their guy at WR, increasing their chances of winning their third Superbowl in a row! Not only do they have their Tyreek-like replacement at WR, but they also have a guy who can make the plays he needs to make in that Chiefs offense—he is not just a field stretcher. Rashee Rice's suspension length will dictate X’s upside in Fantasy Football. He is rated #9 in Superflex and #7 in 1QB.
Pick Thirty-One: Ricky Pearsall WR Florida to San Francisco 49ers
The versatility of Pearsall’s game coming out of college appeals to the 49ers' brain trust. Will they trade the unhappy Aiyuk? What will they do with Deebo’s contract next year? Adding Pearsall, who can play several roles in that offense, gives them options. His Fantasy Football logical range of outcomes is too great currently to make my Top 12 list. >12 in Superflex or 1QB.
Pick Thirty-Two: Xavier Legette WR South Carolina to Carolina Panthers
Moving up one spot into the first round to grab a WR like Legette was interesting. They already had a big-body type WR on the roster in Jonathan Mingo, whom they took 39th last season. Legette is a better player but only had one big year of production in college. His Fantasy Football upside in year one is capped by the addition of Dionte Johnson. Rated #12 in Superflex. Rated #10 in 1QB.
Conclusion
The Fantasy Football values for the players taken in the first draft round this season might be murkier than last season in many ways. There are a few apparent landing positions for the WRs that should lead to instant success in real football and, therefore, in Fake Football, too. Figuring out the quarterback position right after the NFL draft is always a mystery.
Most picks get high praise, but too many flops, and just like in real football, a mistake in the Top 6 picks in your Dynasty rookie draft can set you back a long time in your Fake Football team’s development. For those keeping track at home, you might notice that I didn’t assign the 11th draft position in Superflex or the 9th draft position in 1QB after round one of the actual NFL Draft. That position is reserved right now for Adonai Mitchell if Buffalo picks him up to open the Second Round of the NFL Draft. Expect these rankings to change early and often after the actual NFL Draft has been completed.