Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Twelve

In fantasy football, too many players concentrate on total points, which can deceive us of the actual value of players in fake football. A few vast weeks can vault someone into the top 10 at a position in year-end stats or points per game. My goal with my statistical tools is to show the weekly value of a player by comparing their best games against their fellow players. While year-end points can tell us where we have been, my tools attempt to tell us where we might be going soon and become more heavily weighted for the current season every week. Let’s take a look at this week’s data.  

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency.” the goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football using a Two-year data window, This metric is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating. Still, it can be considered the upside potential for each player. 

Consistency Rating- Many say consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game. 

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible outcomes each week that can affect our team's win/loss record in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players. 

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be helpful when making trades to understand how much value you gain or drop at a position in any deal.

QB Weekly Value

Josh Allen is in a tier of his own according to weekly values and the MVP index after 12 weeks of play. Patrick Mahomes is having his worst fantasy season ever, as witnessed by the 27-point drop in his MVP23 rating. 

After Allen, the most valuable quarterback to own in fake football is Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts, who are tied in MVP23. Only 17 QBs have a positive MVP23 index, which shows how lean the QB position is this year in fantasy football and why paying for an elite QB is more important than ever.  

RB Weekly Value

There is no argument about who the RB1 in fantasy football is this season. CMC has hit the 20+ mark at an 82% clip this season, which is a higher rate than all, but 6 RBs have hit the 10+ point mark. 

Alvin Kamara and Kyren Williams are the 2nd and 3rd most valuable RBs according to the MVP23 index. Raheem Mostert and Travis Etienne have seen a massive jump in their MVP23 index with the volume change they have seen this season. 

WR Weekly Value

Tyreek Hill has scored more fantasy football PPR points than any other player this season, including the QBs. Like CMC at RB, there is no debate about who WR1 has been this season. Justin Jefferson did get off to a fast start and has been a massive liability to teams who drafted him early this season. 

Keenan Allen has been the best value by far at WR, with his MVP23 ranking of WR3 beating his ADP by 16 positions. Mike Evans has quietly led his fake football teams to many wins, with his MVP23 ranking him right between Cee Dee Lamb and Stephon Diggs.

TE Weekly Value

The TE position has become a wasteland late in the season, with Mark Andrews and Dallas Godert suffering injuries. Despite the talk of age catching up with Travis Kelce, in fake football terms, he hasn’t seen any drop off in value this season, even when Taylor Swift isn’t at the games. 

In the MVP Index, a player with a value of 75 points is a “Must Start” player. Only two TEs are above that number, with TJ Hockenson joining Kelce above the 100-point mark. With Andrews sidelined, rookie Sam LaPorta is a distant third in the MVP Index, with George Kittle and David Njoku rounding out the top five.

Conclusion

Each week, my weekly values continue to be more heavily weighted for the 2023 season. My MVP Index and Consistency Ratings will continue to show the big picture from the 2021 season to the current year. The MVP23 uses the same formula but only utilizes data from this season. Year-end points and even points per game can be very deceiving and, in their best cases, show us past performances of what has already happened. 

My weekly tools offer a player value for the future. While the MVP Index is still being beta-tested to determine flex starters this season, the results have been promising. Suppose a player has an MVP Index of 75+. In that case, he should be considered a “Must Start,” and a difference of 15-20 points over another player is significant enough to minimize concerns about defensive matchups. Good luck this week!