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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
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In 2022, I released my draft theory for single-season leagues called “Better Than Zero.”
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I Revised it in 2023.
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The biggest problem with most draft theories touted by Fantasy Football analysts is their need for more ability to adjust to what the other team managers are doing in the Fantasy draft. If too many managers use the same strategy, its value diminishes rapidly.
As Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth.” Each pick made in each round is like another card being revealed in poker; it gives you more information to adjust your strategy.
Let’s look at my “Better Than Zero” strategy in single-season leagues. Strategy always needs to be adjusted to the scoring and roster rules of the league. My game plan shown today is for a typical redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 Flex, and 7 Bench positions with PPR scoring and no premium bonus for positions with 12 teams.
Adapt or Die
Even if you play in a Home League with the same 11 Team Managers for the 20th year, it’s impossible to know how the draft might play out. This offseason, I showed how the number of RBs and WRs finishing as elite players in weekly value in Fantasy Football hasn’t changed much over the past six years. Still, the number of RBs or WRs in the first two rounds of the Fantasy Football draft has changed each season. This phenomenon is called “Recency bias” at work, favoring which position paid off the most for team managers in those critical rounds last season. If the stud RBs got hurt, look for more WRs to go in the first two rounds. If you can uncouple your strategy from the things that happened last year and look at the bigger picture, you will adapt and win more in Fantasy Football.
Best Value Available
There is a minimal number of elite Fantasy Football players at each position. Your goal in any Fantasy Football draft is to accumulate those elite players. Some elite populations will stay the same season to season; our draft strategy seems to change! Forecasting the new players in that population can be challenging, but finding the values in the draft based on changes in opportunity is easier. Last season, I didn’t think Puka Nacua would set a rookie record, but I did know he had the chance to be a great choice at his ADP. My draft philosophy is to grab those solid players late in the draft.
Early Rounds (1 to 5)
My “Better Than Zero” strategy does not favor one position over another in the early rounds of a draft. My draft position often changes my plan for me more than anything else in the early stages. The earlier my draft position is, the more likely I am to be open with an RB. I am more likely to open with a WR in the middle of the draft order. The later my first pick, the more creative I tend to get with my draft strategy in the early rounds. The best weekly value player available will get selected regardless of position in the first two rounds. I also won’t be afraid to be the first Team Manager to select an elite QB or TE in the 2nd through 5th rounds. These selections are all about value, so I don’t care how many of each player I accumulate at RB or WR, but I will usually only take 1 QB or TE this early. For example, I might leave the 5th round with 1QB, 1TE, and 2 WRs, or I might go with 2RBs, 2 WRs, and 1QB, or I might leave with 1QB and 4 WRs and be equally happy.
Rounds 6 and 7
The first critical point of the draft is by the end of the 7th round. The Average Draft Position (ADP) studies by Professor John Bush here at the Science of Fantasy Football have shown that your elite QB talent will usually be exhausted by no later than round 7.
If there was an unexpected run on the position and I got caught without one of the elite talents at QB, that wouldn’t ruin my draft, but it would make it more challenging to win! Bagging one of the elite TEs by now would be great, but it’s not as impactful to miss that position as it is at quarterback. I usually like to set the core of my WR room by the end of round 7, only adding 1 or 2 depth options after this point in the draft. My ideal team would look like this after this point in the draft.
1 Elite QB
1 Elite RB with 1-2 other RBs
2 Elite WRs with 1-2 other WRs
1 Elite TE
Rounding Out the Top 10
The farther you go in the draft, the more risk you are willing to take because this becomes all about upside potential. I will not draft an ordinary veteran now because I don’t want ordinary on my roster. Picking the 40th WR and having him finish WR38 is not a winning move for your Fantasy Football league. I would rather have that 40th WR off the board finish either in the Top 25 or outside the Top 60! Take your big swings the later you go in the draft. If they hit, your chances of winning your league will increase quickly. If they miss you, replace that player using the waiver wire. Bet on potential upside, and don’t be afraid to swing for the fences and miss.
Rounds 10 to 15
The closing rounds of a Fantasy Football draft are when some managers seem to tune out, but the winning managers know this is where championships can be won. The final roster build decisions are made at this point in your draft. Since the NFL switched to 17-game seasons with a weekly Thursday night game, I am more concerned with having a more expensive backup solution at the QB position. Unless I missed TE entirely and didn’t get a player I deem a reliable starter, I usually end up with only 1 TE on my roster at the end of the NFL Draft. That doesn’t mean an active roster during the season won’t have 2 TEs; it just means I don’t usually start the draft that way. I also tend to leave a draft with more RBs on the roster than WRs due to the heightened concern of injury and volume management that might happen at that position in this 17-game era of the NFL. Here is what my typical roster build looks like after 15 rounds.
1 Elite QB with 1-2 on Roster
1-2 Elite RBs and 7-8 on Roster
2-3 Elite WRs and 4-5 on Roster
1 Elite or Solid TE with one on Roster
Conclusion
There is no such thing as the perfect draft or Fantasy Football draft strategy! The more adaptive your process is, the better your usual team result will be. I lean heavily on the Average Draft Position when selecting my team. Rarely will I take a player at most ten spots earlier than his ADP. If the guy I hoped would fall is gone by my following draft selection, there will be someone else whose “Range of Logical Outcomes” is close enough. Championships are not won or lost simply by the Fantasy Football draft, but your chances for success can increase or decrease significantly depending on how you leave the draft. Over the coming weeks, I will dig deeper into my draft strategy process and add a few things for other formats.
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