Finding the Next Puka Nacua
Finding the next Nacua is like looking for Nemo. He might be out there, but you need help finding him. Before we go any further, we must define what it means to “Find the next Nacua.” I am NOT suggesting we see another rookie we can draft in the later rounds of rookie drafts in Fantasy Football who will set a rookie record. But I am talking about a player who will far exceed their Average Draft Position in drafts or a guy who will still be standing at the end of your draft. Wouldn’t you love to have that guy on your roster when everyone is looking to bid their whole FAAB budget after week one? Wouldn’t you love to say, “I told you so,” when someone gives you the business about drafting a guy MOST people aren’t aware of having potential? The great news is that there is a way to find the next Nacua.
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Strategy Matters
Every year, I snicker when I hear someone pat themselves on the back because they had a player ranked 45Th at their position and finished 40th in total points. First, the concept of total points, meaning much more than telling you who stayed healthiest, is something that MORE Fantasy Football analysts should know already. Second, if I draft a guy at 45th in his position, I want him to finish in the Top 30 or be a complete bust!
Nobody has made money consistently in Fantasy Football by playing a guy who ends up 40th best at his position in weekly value! Your strategy matters in Fantasy Football drafts, and as the rounds go along, the more you should be swinging for the fences for those surprise breakout guys. You don’t need below-average players on your roster! If you swing and miss, you can always cash that player in for someone showing some signs of breakout potential. Utilizing this upside-only concept in Fantasy Football is the first secret to finding that next Nacua.
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Young Players Matter
The biggest mistake I see Fantasy Football managers make late in a draft is choosing an experienced player with lousy stats in the same support role situation. As the late Dennis Green once said, “We knew who they were,” yet people make this giant leap of faith that suddenly this player will improve, and once again, they are wrong! This is a reminder that if you pick a guy at WR50 and he finishes 45th, you didn’t accomplish anything while helping your Fantasy Football team win.
Later in the draft, load up on guys with less than three years of experience in changing situations. If you can’t find one of those, load up on another rookie or RB with a chance to get an opportunity when injuries happen. Load up on the same backfield to ensure you have multiple shots at a starter-level player each week.
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More Than One Nacua Last Year
While Puka Nacua got all the hype for last season for all the right reasons, there was more than one Nacua previous season, using my definition. There was a new coach and a new QB in Houston last season. Nico Collins, who had underperformed, and rookie Tank Dell were priced right in Fantasy Football drafts. Both yielded great weekly value for enough weeks to benefit your team. Devin Singletary wasn’t a vast breakout guy but also won enough volume to be successful at an excellent value. Cam Akers was overpriced based on the logic that his only competition was Kyren Williams. Since Cam Akers had never been able to post a solid season, I took the cheaper Kyren Williams, a Top-level producer. Yes, you will miss some of those shots you take. Alexander Mattison was overpriced, so I took several shares of Ty Chandler. While it took too long for Chandler to take over the starting role, he did help in the Fantasy Football playoffs.
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Looking for the Next Nacua in 2024
The Salary Cap era of the NFL rewards teams for finding inexpensive replacements at critical positions. This aspect is why more of this surprise week one waiver guys have become increasingly popular recently. I will have my late-round target players for the 2024 draft pick out several weeks after the NFL draft.
Analyzing each team's potential weaknesses is a way to find those hidden gems. Eight teams have changed coaches during the offseason, and those are the apparent teams to target for those value picks. Watch for any team that changed coordinators or QBs, and you will have your list of teams whose players you want to target late in the draft. Who knows, maybe we will even find that elusive rookie who will break Nacua’s record, but more likely, we will see that inexpensive flex starter to help our Fake Football team win the championship.