Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Twelve

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week twelve. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (+1) Still the favorite to win Fantasy Football MVP with his arm and legs this year

2. Josh Allen (+1) Sat out a week and now comes back to a possible snow game

3. Joe Burrow (-2) Should have a shot at QB1 in these rankings since his team’s defense is not good

4. Jalen Hurts (NC): His team’s defense is strong enough that he doesn’t need to score 35 to win.

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5. Patrick Mahomes (+2) Was on top of the Fantasy Football world last week at QB.

6. Jordan Love (NC) Solidly locked into the second tier at QB

7. Brock Purdy (-2) Maybe he isn’t a system QB after all 

8. Jayden Daniels (+2) Are we sure he is a rookie, and the Commanders are the Commanders too.

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9. Baker Mayfield (NC) is tied for the top spot when looking only at this season’s data.

10. Jared Goff (-2) Played indoors, yet the home/away split was natural again.

11. Tua Tagliavoa (+7) Tua is starting to look like the old Tua again, just in time for the Dolphin's chance at a longshot playoff run.

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12. Sam Darnold (+2) While still a “Starting QB at QB12,” that’s a 3-tier drop from QB4 to QB12

13. Bo Nix (+2) Threw the ball over 40 times last week, something I didn’t expect from the Broncos.

14. Trevor Lawrence (-2): Will he play again in 2024, or won’t he? 

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15. James Winston (-4) It is never dull when Jameis is throwing the ball 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 Kyler Murray at 16th, Anthony Richardson at 21st, CJ Stroud at 22nd 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC): Over 140 yards rushing but no TDs, which hurt his weekly value

2. Saquon. Barkley (+1): Two impressive weeks in a row, and both on prime-time

3. Bijan Robinson (-1) Got a week off and is now ready to spread some holiday cheer in the upcoming Fake Football playoffs

4. De’Von Achane (+3) Since Tua returned, he has four out of five games over 20 PPR points.

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5. Jahmyr Gibbs (+3) The Sonic part of the best RB tandem in the game 

6. Josh Jacobs (+3) The experts said RB10 was drafting him too early.

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7. Alvin Kamara (-1) Suddenly, the Saints discovered how to play offense without WRs.

8. Joe Mixon (-4) is A rare off-game for Big Joe but still looks fresh despite the heavy workload.

9. Kyren Williams (-4) is the most inefficient fake football running back, but its volume is high enough.

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10. Breece Hall (NC): It’s offensive malpractice in the Jets coaching staff that he isn’t ranked Top 3.

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11. Ken Walker (NC): The new regime even has him catching the occasional pass, which so many Fantasy Football experts said wouldn’t happen. 

12. Chase Brown (NC): The experts will tell you he only got this high because of the injury to Moss, but you better not believe them.

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13. David Montgomery (+1) The Knuckles are part of the best RB tandem in Fake Football, but injuries could be adding up.

14. Aaron Jones (+3) Another “Old Timer” who is doing much better than most expected 

15. James Conner (NC): The Cardinals offense has been very inconsistent 

16. Christian McCaffrey (-3) Lacking Purdy at QB showed how vulnerable even a great RB is to those around him in the offensive scheme.

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17. James Cook (+1): I'm puzzled by how he ever scores less than 15 PPR points in any game.

18. Austin Ekeler (-2) Injuries are slowing down his running mate in DC, which has made him worthy of a Fake Football start again.

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19. D’Andre Swift (+1) Starting to lose some volume to the power back in the tandem after the change of playcaller for the Bears.

20. Chuba Hubbard (+1) If he were playing on a better offense, he would hit the Top 10.

21. Tony Pollard (+4) The Titans offense is starting to look better over the last few weeks. 

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22. Rhamondre Stevenson (NC): I expected more out of him this season.

23. Jonathon Taylor (-4) Might be one of the biggest disappointments versus ADP this season at RB.

24. Brian Robinson (-1) Injuries are adding up, which could cut into his volume when he plays.

25. JK Dobbins (-1) How bad his knee injury on MNF is the big mystery heading into week 13.

26. Bucky Irving (+8) One of my favorite rookie RBs, even with the lousy position, suddenly taking over as the lead RB for a dynamic offense.

27. Rachaad White (NC) Still getting some touches at critical times to be a decent RB2 or Flex.

28. Isiah Pacheco (NC) Should return this week but expect maybe ten touches .

29. Najee Harris (-3) His running mate in that Steelers backfield is looking better.

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30. Kareem Hunt (+1) Might still get some of the “Jet McKinnon” role instead of always being Perine.

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: Travis Ettienne at RB32nd. 

WR Position

1. Ja’Marr Chase (+1): Four of eleven games over 20 PPR points this season, and the defense is so bad they will need to score 35 a game to win.

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2. Justin Jefferson (-1) Three straight games under 15 PPR points after starting the season with 8 

3. Amon Ra St Brown (NC) Home/away splits hurt his QB, but his target share keeps him in the top 3

4. Cooper Kupp (+2) Back-to-back games with both top WRs with the Rams over 20 PPR points

5. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) QB change takes the top off his upside.

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6. Malik Nabers (-1) I never thought I would say this, but Danny Dimes's loss hurts his value.

7. AJ Brown (NC) Has scored double-digit points in every game he has finished this season. 

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8. Nico Collins (NC) Returned to his pre-injury snap share last week.

FOUR-TIER BREAK

9. Garret Wilson (NC) He never thought he would be a main character in a soap opera, but here we are with another episode of “As the Aaron Turns.” 

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10. Tee Higgins (NC), can he stay healthy for the rest of the season as he auditions for the big contract?

11. Puka Nacua (+11): Don’t look now, but that Rams offense got the band back together.

12. DJ Moore (+9) On Caleb’s good days, DJM is a Top 5 WR, on his bad days struggles for the Top 25.

13. Terry McLaurin (+7) Showed last week that it only takes one big play to post a significant number.

14. Zay Flowers (-2) Amazing consistency for a team that rushes for 200 + yards many weeks.

15. Mike Evans (+1) Limited to 60% snap share but should return to normal this week.

16. Brian Thomas (-3) Went from Top 10 to sitting on your Fantasy Football bench with a QB change.

17. Davante Adams (-6) Wishes his best buddy was Josh Allen instead of Aaron Rodgers.

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18. Tyreek Hill (-3) His injury is holding him back right now.

19. Devonta Smith (-2) Has had six solid weeks and three bad weeks this season. 

20. DK Metcalf (-6) Might be losing some targets to JSN going forward. 

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21. Jakobi Meyers (+7) Other than the rookie TE, he is the only solid option in the passing game.

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22. Jaxon Smith Njigba (+2) On his way to solid Top 10 performance by the end of his second season 

23. Jayden Reed (-4) Injuries have slowed him down but haven’t been bad enough to keep him off the field, which can be the worst case for Fantasy Football Managers.

24. Deebo Samuel (-6): Will the old Deebo return for the Fake Football playoffs? 

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25. Courtland Sutton (+6) The lack of a rushing game is helping inflate his Fantasy Football value.

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26. Calvin Ridley (+3) Weird to see such a talented WR demoted to Flex level based on offense

27. Drake London (-1) Hasn’t lived up to expectations but is always a solid threat for a big week.

28. Khalil Shakir (-1) Emerging as the best option for an outstanding QB

29. Josh Downs (-6) How bad his injury will be moving forward is a mystery right now 

30. George Pickens (-5) Steelers might not pass enough for him to get to the Top 20

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Marvin Harrison at 36th, Chris Olave at 38th, Jaylen Waddle at 43rd 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC): Even a bad QB couldn’t keep him from being the best TE this season. 

2. Travis Kelce (+1): Four of the last five games have been solid for the former TE1.

3. Brock Bowers (-2) Showed he is a rookie after all last week. 

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4. Trey McBride (NC): Being at TE4 without a single TD reception this year is amazing.

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5. Taysom Hill (NC) Coach said he plans to use him more in the weeks ahead.

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6. Johnu Smith (+3) Back-to-back games over 20 PPR points move him to this level.

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7. Dallas Goedert (-1) Hasn’t looked as solid since his injury.

8. Mark Andrews (NC) Still doesn’t appear to be 100%, but 80% of his usual self is still solid.

9. David Njoku (-2) It doesn’t appear that he likes an off-track.

10. Zach Ertz (+2) Continues to be the best value at the position this season. 

11. TJ Hockenson (+2) Had his first game over 50% snap percentage, which is a great sign going. forward, just in time for the Fantasy Football playoffs.

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12. Evan Engram (-2) Uncertainty at QB in JAX could be an issue for him going forward.

13. Cole Kmet (+1) Three games over 12 PPR points but seven games at seven or fewer.

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14. Kyle Pitts (+1) Poor performances before the Bye week leave him a considerable mystery.

15. Cade Otton's (-4) Return of Mike Evans dropped him back to a marginal start at TE.

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15: Sam LaPorta at 17th, Dalton Kincaid at 18th, Jake Ferguson at 20th. 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This process is a live Beta Test, so consider that when using these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Have a very Happy Thanksgiving, and best of luck in week 13.