Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Fifteen 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows many of my forecasting concepts for Fantasy Football stem from my previous work in handicapping horse races and weather forecasting. Combining several key ingredients to form an "Index" is very successful in weather. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better understand the landscape of each year. I created a new in-season metric that combines four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let us examine the consensus rating after week fifteen.

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (+1) is Back on the top as the leading contender for MVP for Fake Football.

2. Joe Burrow (-1): Any time someone at the top has less than a game-winning effort, they drop a spot, which shows how tight the competition is at the top.

3. Josh Allen (NC) Last two games, his Superman Cape has fit perfectly

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4. Jalen Hurts (NC) Tush push TDs have kept him in the Top 4 despite an off year in other stats

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5. Jayden Daniels (NC) Amazing performance of consistency for a rookie in the NFL

6. Jared Goff (+2): The home/away splits keep him from the top-tier

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7. Patrick Mahomes (NC) Fun fact: He has won the Super Bowl in a year he didn’t sustain a leg injury; the three-peat is locked and loaded

8. Tua Tagovailoa (-2) First bad game after his return from injury 

9. Baker Mayfield (+1) The best value draft pick of the year at QB in Fake Football

10. Jordan Love's (+2) Defense and rushing game cap his upside in Fantasy Football 

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11. Sam Darnold (NC): Maybe the system made Kirk Cousins look so good the last few years.

12. Jameis Winston (-3) Turnovers cost him his starting job

13. Brock Purdy (NC) Will move back up into the Top 12 with the departure of Winston next week unless DRT is so bad that Jameis gets his starting job back in the middle of the game

TWO-TIER DROP

14. Bo Nix (NC) Lack of a running game has helped this rookie’s weekly value in Fake Football

15. Russel Wilson's (+1) Game plan no longer keeps him from being a solid Top 8 Fantasy QB.

16. Kyler Murray (-1) Has been a huge disappointment, but that happens with coaching changes sometimes

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17. Caleb Williams (NC) Has a good season for a rookie, but the other rookies have been better than the first pick in the draft, which is never a good look.

18. Justin. Herbert (+1) Since Dobbins went down with an injury, the running game has abandoned the Chargers, but Herbert hasn’t picked up the slack yet.

19. Geno Smith (-1) That injury looked worse than it was, or they are doing a good job of downplaying it right now

20. Aaron. Rodgers (+4) Had the kind of game last week that we regularly saw from him 10 years ago. 

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 20: Anthony Richardson at 21st, CJ Stroud at 23rd 

RB Position

1. De’Von Achane (+2): The top tier has tightened considerably, so expect lots of small moves.

2. Bijan. Robinson's (NC) quarterback change should be a positive move for him going forward.

3. Josh Jacobs (+2) As the weather gets colder and windier, the Packers might be leaning on him.  

4. Derrick Henry's (3) Top tier is getting so tight that one bad game can quickly move you down.

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (+3) Should get most of the goal-line carries now that Monty is gone.

6. Saquon. Barkley (-2): Not sure what happened to the Philly rushing game last week.

7. Kyren Williams (-1) is still getting the highest touches on that offense.

8. Joe M.ixon (-1) Gets some tough defensive matchups for the rest of the Fake Football playoffs.

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9. Chase Brown (+1) Has been the best draft value this season in Fantasy Football at RB

10. Alvin. Kamara (-1): Will his injury knock him out for the Fake Football playoffs?

TWO-TIER DROP

11. Breece Hall (NC): Playing through a challenging, brutal injury makes start/sit decisions tougher 

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12. James Conner (NC) Favorable defensive matchups ahead to reward Fantasy Managers that believed in him again this season

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13. Ken Walker (NC): Only injuries have kept him out of the top 10 this year 

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14. David Montgomery (NC) Could be sidelined for the rest of the Fantasy Playoffs

15. Aaron Jones (NC) Has looked as good as ever for his new team

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16. James Cook (+4) Potential blowout games in the next two weeks could limit his upside

17. Bucky Irving (-1) That Buc’s offense has been so strong, helping this rookie emerge as the second-best draft value at RB

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18. Chuba Hubbard (NC) gets all the value down the stretch, but the inconsistent offense limits Chuba's consistency every week. 

19. Richard White (+3) has enough touches to go around in the RB room to make both worthy of a start in Fake Football playoffs

20. Jonathon Taylor (+3): His drop of the football at the goal line helped me win a first-round matchup in the fake football playoffs

21. Brian Robinson (+4): Tough defensive matchups for the next two weeks

22. Tony Pollard (-3) Injury concerns heading into the final weeks of the season

23. Najee Harris (-2) Looks like his college version some weeks and looks 45 years old other weeks

24. Rhamondre Stevenson (NC): He is who we thought he would be this season 

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25. D’Andre Swift (+1) Shows some flashes of brilliance and then shows why the Lions gave up on him a few years ago

26. Travis Etienne (+3) One of the worst draft values at RB this season with his ranking -19 from ADP

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27. Rico Dowdle (+1) Shows that volume remains King in fake football production.

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28. Tyrone Tracy (-1) Could be a huge value in Fantasy Football next season with a better offense.

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29. Zach Charbonnet (+7) Has done well when allowed to be the lead RB

30. Isaac Guerendo (+2): Exciting young player who will be a good value pick next season 

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31. Nick Chubb (-1) His last week in the ratings after suffering a season-ending injury last week

32. Kareem Hunt (+1) Even volume split between two RBs is hurting both

33. Isiah Pacheco (-2) Chiefs won’t lean on him until the real playoffs start 

34. Ray Davis (+1) Can give some spark off the bench, but guessing which week is tough

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35. Raheem Mostert (+2) Back Class is the only thing keeping him in the Top 40

36. Tank Bigsby (-2) Needs ETN to miss time to be a value in Fake Football down the stretch 

37. Javonte Williams (+1) Holding on to the starting job because no one else has stepped up

38. Jerome Ford (+4) Could be a massive admission to Fake Football teams down the stretch, but his upside will be limited by poor QB play

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39. Alexander Mattison (NC) Could get another shot for the Fake Football playoffs with an injury to Sincere last week 

40. Justice Hill (+3) Could be a nice flex play with upside down the stretch 

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 40: NONE 

WR Position

1. Ja’Marr Chase (NC) The big game potential keeps him on the top of this list

2. Justin Jefferson (NC) Has lacked the huge games this season because the defense has turned the game script in the fourth quarter in many games.

TWO-TIER DROP

3. Amon Ra St Brown (+1) All the injuries on defense have made it essential for the offense to score 35+ to win, which should help the Sun God down the stretch

4. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) Cooper Rush has been better than expected

5. Malik Nabers (+1): Could you imagine what this rookie might accomplish with a better QB? 

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6. AJ Brown (+1) Inconsistent QB play has limited his consistency in Fake Football this season

TWO T.IER DROP

7. Cooper Kupp (-2) Threw up a big DONUT HOLE in week one of the playoffs; expect a big bounce-back game this week.

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8. Nico Collins (+1) has been solid since returning from injury, with a quarterback having a down year.

9. Davante Adams (+2) Found the Fountain of Youth in NY, or is it the Taco Bell that has him running so fast? 

10. Mike Evans (+3) Peeking at the perfect time of the year for Fake Football Managers

11. Puka Nacua (-1) Might in fact be the WR1 on his team now instead of 1A

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12. Brian Thomas Jr (+4) Rookie is having a fantastic season and seems to be QB-proof too

13. Terry McLaurin (+1) is still trying to understand why he was drafted so late this season.

14. Tyreek Hill (-6) Through up one of his worst games in week one of the fantasy playoffs

15. DJ Moore (-3) Getting more rushing attempts, which is helping offset target share

TWO-TIER DROP

16. Garrett Wilson (-1) Has become the WR2 on his team

17. DeVonta Smith (+2) Showed last week why you never bench him in Fake Football 

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18. Tee Higgins (NC) Doing a solid job auditioning for a big free-agent contract next season

19. Zay Flowers (-2) On a team that passed more often, he would be Top 10 in weekly value 

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20. Keenan Allen (+3) His Junk Time TD last week turned a good week into a great week

21. Jakob. I Meyers (-1) QB switch this week should be a positive for his production.

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22. Jaxon Smith Njigba (-1) Flashing Top 10 ability on many weeks this season

23. Ladd McConkey (+1) Lack of a rushing game with Dobbins’ injury has helped this rookie’s weekly value going forward

24. Jerry Jeudy's (+6) QB switch could kill his value in the semi-finals of fake football playoffs

25. Jordan Addison (NC) Could be a Top 10 in weekly value on a different team 

26. Drake London's (NC) QB switch could move his weekly value up a few spots down the stretch

27. Courtland Sutton (+1) Target share is keeping his weekly value at a nice level

28. DK Metcalf's (-6) Combination of injuries and JSN emerging are dropping his value considerably

29. Khalil Shakir (-2) The best WR on his team and should get more target share down the stretch

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30. Jayden Reed's (+4) Snap count has been under 60% in half of his games this year, which is concerning. 

31. George Pickens (+2) Injuries have slowed him down and kept him out of the Top 24 

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32. Calvin Ridley's (NC) QB switch could help in the next 2 weeks

33. Jaylen Waddle (+2) Has been a huge disappointment this season 

34. Deebo Samuel (-3) Has been one of the worst draft values at WR this season, with a weekly value of -24 from ADP

35. Jauan Jennings (-6) Showed last week that he doesn’t like an off-track

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36. Josh Downs (NC): The good news is that he is the best WR on his team; the thing is that it is only suitable for WR36

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37. DeAndre Hopkins (+1) Could surprise some people in the Fake Football semifinals this week.

38. Jameson Williams (+1): So many mouths to feed in that Lions offense, and he often gets the scraps.

39. Marvin Harrison Jr (-2) Has been the worst value at the position, showing why it’s not always a great idea to trust a rookie as a top-10 value at WR

40. Adam Thielen (NC) is a fantastic Flex Play for the fake football playoffs 

The top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 40 include Chris Olave at 41st 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC) One of only two TEs with an MVP index over 100 this year

2. Brock Bowers (NC): Is the longer NFL season catching up to the rookie, or has it been bad quarterback play? 

3. Travis Kelce (NC) Old reliable hasn’t always been as reliable this season

4. Trey McBride (NC): If his TD scoring rate goes back to normal, he could be TE1 down the stretch

TWO-TIER DROP

5. David Njoku (NC) Injuries have been the only thing to slow him down this season. 

6. Mark Andrews (+1) Has gone from the Top 3 to the second tier in weekly value this season.

7. John Smith (-1) is One of my most owned TEs in Best Ball this season, still shocked he wasn’t drafted higher this season 

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8. Evan Engram (NC): His last appearance on this chart after a season-ending injury

9. TJ Hockenson (NC) Could be a sneaky value next season 

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10. Zach Ertz's (+1) Injuries could be ending his Fantasy Football season, too

11. Sam LaPorta (+1) Starting to have the kind of weeks his Fantasy Managers expected when he was drafted as the TE2 this year

12. Tucker Kraft (-2) There are so many mouths to feed in that GB offense which limits his upside

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13. Cade Otton (NC): Three of his five double-digit PPR point games came when Evans missed time

14. Cole Kmet's (NC) Inconsistency makes him a better Best Ball selection than Redraft.

15. Hunter Henry (NC) Has been a nice injury replacement at TE this year

16. Pat Freiermuth (+4) Stepped up big with Pickens out of the lineup 

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17. Kyle Pitts (-1) The only thing he has been consistent at is being inconsistent after his rookie year.

18. Isiah Likely (-1) The fact a backup TE makes the Top 20 is a testament to how shallow the pool is at TE again this season

19. Dalton Kincaid (-1) It’s still a mystery why he can’t be at least a Top 10 TE in Fake Football

20. Jake Ferguson (+1) His only double-digit PPR point games came with Dak in the lineup. 

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 20: NONE 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This process is a live beta test, so remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in your fantasy football playoffs this week.