Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Ten 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a weekly consensus rating. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week ten. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

      Top Tier

1. Josh Allen (+2) The top 4 at QB are very tight right now, and we will see a good week shuffle them each week.

2. Lamar Jackson (-1) If the polls closed today, Lamar would win real and fake football MVP

3. Ironically, Joe Burrow (+1), who will be number one in fake football, might come down to which of the team's top four plays has the worst natural football defense.

4. Jalen Hurts (+1) Might have the better schedule for the fantasy football playoffs of the top 4

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5. Jordan Love (-1) Fighting off an injury, lousy weather, and the improving Lions defense was a triple threat he couldn’t handle last week.

6. Jayden Daniels (NC) has been the most exciting rookie quarterback story in both real and fake football this year.

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7. Patrick Mahomes (+4) Finally had a solid game in fake football, and his new weapon looked great.

8. Baker Mayfield (NC) Had an imposing game without one of his top 3 WRs active.

9. Jared Goff (--2): The bad weather slowed him down last week, but the improving defense might cap his upside for the rest of the season

10. Brock Purdy (-1) Past his BYE week and should get one of his best weapons back this week

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11. Trevor Lawrence (-1): Having an OK year with some consistency but not a significant upside.

12. Kirk Cousins' (+2) team is 14th in pass-play frequency this season, so it is no surprise that he is also at this level in fake football.

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13. Geno Smith (+4) Lost his primary weapon but had his best Fantasy Football performance of the year.

14. Sam Darnold (-1) While he hasn’t hurt Justin Jefferson’s value in fake football, his upside appears to be capped weekly.

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15. Dak Prescott (NC) Injury will sideline him for at least 4 weeks and maybe more.

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 include Kyler Murray at 16th, CJ Stroud at 19th, and Anthony Richardson at 31st 

RB Position

1. Derrick Henry (NC) Finds the endzone every week, which has made him the undisputed RB1 in Fake Football this season.

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2. Kyren Williams (NC): There was a fear that the rookie would cut into his touches, but he isn’t even cutting into his snap total.

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3. Saquon Barkley (+1) There should be bonus points in all fantasy football leagues for reverse hurdle plays.

4. Bijan Robinson (+2) The Falcons are keeping him fresh, and while that takes a little off his top end, it should keep him producing to the end of the season.

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5. Joe Mixon (NC) Might have been one of the best values in fantasy football this season at the po. position

6. Alvin Kamara (+1) There was a fear that the rookie would cut into his touch total, but that rookie is now on the IR.

7. Jahmyr Gibbs (-4) Split the goal line touches with another excellent RB, but his volume has increased as forecast this season.

8. De’Von Achane (NC) Posting insane numbers in the entire games that Tua plays at QB

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9. Josh Jacobs's (NC) sloppy track slowed him down last week, but I look forward to him returning nicely after the Bye week.

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10. Kenneth Walker's (NC) New coaching regime this season is even using him more in the passing game, which has solidified his floor.

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11. Breece Hall (NC): Having a solid year but not living up to his RB2 ADP

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12. Aaron Jones (+1) Just as consistent in purple as he was for so many years in green

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13. Jonathon Taylor (-1) Another RB who is having a decent year but not living up to his RB5 ADP

14. David Montgomery (NC): The Lions RB room has been the Poster Man for my “Play Em Both” strategy again this season

15. Chase Brown (+16) Beat out Zach Moss and should have no problem continuing to beat out the newcomer Herbert for touches, too.

16. Austin Ekeler (+1): His Back Class boosts his ranking, but he had a solid game without B-Rob. 

17. James Conner (-2) Lost some touches to two different RBs in a blowout loss last week.

18. D’Andre Swift (-2) The inconsistency of the Bears offense has limited his upside

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19. James Cook (NC) has a solid season but could lose a few touches going forward.

20. Rhamondre Stevenson (+3): That Patriots offense looks much better with Drake Maye at QB

21. JK Dobbins (-6) Might be wearing down a bit after a fast start to the season.

22. Chuba Hubbard (-3) A talented rookie RB just got activated and could cut into his volume.

23. Brian Robinson (-5) A solid RB2 starter with RB1 upside some weeks when he is healthy

24. Tony Pollard (-3) The Titans offense had been rather bland, but he keeps being a solid RB2

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25. Jordan Mason (-3) The return of CMC should drop him outside of the Top 30 soon

26. Najee Harris (NC) Having a solid RB2-type season on an improving offense

27. Isiah Pacheco (+1) The fact he has stayed in the Top 30 while injured is a testament to Back Class

28. Kareem Hunt (+4) The Chiefs offense is improving, and he is getting all the RB volume for now

29. Richard White (-9) is Now part of a 3-man RBBC in Tampa

30. Travis Ettienne (NC) Has not even come close to living up to his RB7 ADP this season

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30: NONE except for the injured players not eligible for the list yet 

WR Position

1. Justin Jefferson (NC) Insane to see that among a very talented league of WRs, he has a two-tier advantage over the WR2 in fake football, according to my rating system

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2. Cee Dee Lamb (NC): His injury and a severe injury to his quarterback could hurt his short-term weekly value in fantasy football.

3. Ja’Marr Chase (NC): The loss of his Higgins has not hurt his weekly value yet

4. Malik Nabers (NC) is The best rookie WR in the league and was a tremendous value at WR24 in fake football drafts.

5. Amon Ra St Brown (NC) Extended an incredible streak of 30 straight pass completions despite playing in the worst weather conditions last week.

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6. Nico Collins (+1) Texans will be thrilled to have him back soon

7. AJ Brown (-1) An injury concern heading into this week 

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8. Cooper Kupp (+9) Had another big week when his fellow WR got himself ejected.

9. Garret Wilson (+2) Had two of the most spectacular catches of the season in the same game.

10. Brian Thomas (-1): Minor injury concern going forward for this talented rookie.

11. Devonta Smith (-1) If AJB misses any games, they will have to lean on him going forward

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12. Davante Adams (+9) His Back Class suggests we should expect more of last week’s type of games.

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13. Zay Flowers (+7) The impact of Diontae Johnson on his production is a big unknown.

14. Mike Evans (-2) The Bucs can’t get him back fast enough 

15. Jayden Reed (-2) Fighting through some injuries but still +18 spots versus his WR33 ADP

16. DK Metcalf (-2) Will he return to his usual level, or will the injuries slow him down? 

17. Terry McLaurin (+1) The rookie QB has unlocked his fantasy football value

18. Tee Higgins (-2) Missing what would have been a nice shootout on Thursday Night Football

19. Deebo Samuel (NC): The return of CMC should help, not hurt; his fake football value

20. DJ Moore (-5) Inconsistent QB play has led to inconsistent fake football weekly value for DJM

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21. Tyreek Hill (+1) Return of Tua has not unleashed the Cheetah yet

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22. Drake London's (+2) volume split among 3 WRs, a TE, and a run-heavy offense, as expected, results in lousy fantasy football value versus that ADP of WR11.

23. Jakobi Meyers (+2) Had been a solid WR2 weekly value despite playing on a lousy offense.

24. Josh Downs (+3) is Emerging as the top WR for the Colts regardless of QB starter.

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25. Marvin Harrison Jr (-2) Inconsistent play for a team that is 25th in passing play percentage

26. Ladd McConkey (+5) Chargers are ninth in passing play percentage over the last three games.

27. Khalil Shakir (+1) The best WR for a team that is only 21st in the league in passing play percentage this season

28. Jaxon Smith Njigba (+12) Had a huge game without DK in the lineup, but can he do it when all 3 WRs are in the lineup? 

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29. George Pickens (+1): The addition of Mike Williams to this lineup should help him.

30. Courtland Sutton (+10) Starting to click with the rookie QB 

Top 20 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Chris Olave at 35th, Puka Nacua at 39th, and Jaylen Waddle at 52nd 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC) is Still number one but is now in the same tier as the next two TEs

2. Travis Kelce (+1): Adding D-Hop to this lineup will open the defense for him.

3. Brock Bowers (-1) Amazing how consistent he has been as a rookie on an awful offense

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4. Trey McBride (NC) Quietly putting up a solid fake football season

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5. Mark Andrews (+1): Was it a “Load Management” thing last week with the Thursday Night game?

6. David Njoku (-1) Towards the top end of this large group of sameness in weekly value

7. Cole Kmet (NC) Has two fake football game-winning efforts but three game-losing efforts this season, with the offense sometimes sputtering.

8. Dallas Goedert (NC) Comes back from injury this week, I hope

9. Evan Engram (+3) Very consistent since returning from injury

10. Taysom Hill (+3) Could find more goal-line use in the weeks ahead

11. Kyle Pitts (-2) After four straight great performances, he threw in another dud last week

12. Cade Otton (+4) Could quickly rise to the top of this tier with so many injuries to the Bucs’ WRs

13. Tucker Kraft (-2): Too much talent on the Packers for him to gain too much weekly consistency 

14. Zach Ertz (-4) The Commanders being so good keeps the rookie from finding the field more

15. TJ Hockenson (NEW) Came back from the injury list and looked great in limited snaps

Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 1:5 Jake Ferguson at 16th, Dalton Kincaid at 17th, and Sam LaPorta at 18th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This research is a live beta test, so remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in week ten!