Consensus Weekly Value Metric After Week Six 

Anyone who has listened to the Professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from Fantasy Football came from my past work handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several vital ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse race handicapping, combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating after week six. 

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which grades upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football. 

QB Position

1. Joe Burrow (NC): The Bengal's defense did get two of their defensive linemen back, and if the defense improves, Joe Cool won’t need to throw for 300 yards every week

2. Josh Allen (+2): Gets a new weapon at WR in Amari Cooper, and that should complement Shakir and Coleman quite well

3. Lamar Jackson (-1): On pace to throw for over 4000 yards and rush for 1000 yards making him the clear favorite for MVP

4. Jordan Love (-1): Those Fantasy Football experts who wrote last year off as a fluke are looking very dumb right about now

5. Jayden Daniels (NC): Leading the way for what is turning out to be an excellent rookie class of QBs

6. Jared Goff (+5): He made the Cowboys defense look awful last week, but he won’t be the first to accomplish that feat all season

7. Jalen Hurts (NC): He should be back in the discussion for Top 3 with the return of his top two receiving threats 

8. CJ Stroud (-2): His lack of rushing yardage will always keep him just outside of the top 5 in Fantasy Football 

9. Joe Flacco (NEW): The uncertain health of starter Anthony Richardson going forward earns Flacco a spot in the rankings

10. Brock Purdy (+6): The most efficient QB in Fantasy Football

11. Justin Fields (-2): I can’t remember another starting QB with a winning record losing his job but could be sitting behind Russ Wilson beginning

12. Baker Mayfield (+1): Top-rated QB after six weeks if you only look at metrics from this season. Can this hot start continue? Back Class suggests maybe not. 

13. Patrick Mahomes (-5): We often see the Chiefs offense perform much better after their Bye week, which does come much earlier this year

14. Trevor Lawrence (+5): Had a solid Fantasy Football game last week while playing losing football

15. Geno Smith (-3): Dynamic offense should be able to keep their QB in the Top 15 this year

Top 15 ADP QBs outside the Top 15 include Dak Prescott at 16th, Kyler Murry at 18th, Caleb Williams at 19th, Tua Tagliavoa at 22nd, Anthony Richardson at 23rd

RB Position

1. Kyren Williams (NC): He comes back from his Bye week as the top-ranked RB in Fake Football so far

2. Derrick Henry (+1): Being considered too old to be a top 5 RB in Fantasy Football season might be the worst Fantasy Football consensus in many years

3. Alvin Kamara (+1): Another Fake Football great who was not given enough respect during draft season this year

4. Saquon Barkley (-2): I saw a dip in production last week. Was it a blip or a sign that their two elite WRs will lead this offense? 

5. Kenneth Walker (+3): Starting to get some work in the passing game, which will keep him solidified in the Top 5 this season

6. Austin Ekeler (-1): His Back Class has elevated his overall ranking too high using this method

7. Joe Mixon (+10): This methodology punishes players for missing games, so being this high in the ratings despite missing half the games is incredible

8. Bijan Robinson (+3): Fantasy Football managers continue to scream at the coach every touch that is given to Allgeier, but it’s a long season, and the coach’s job isn’t to win in Fantasy Football

9. Jamyr Gibbs (-2): He and his fellow Lions RB are the Poster Guys for the “Play Em Both” strategy.

10. Jonathon Taylor (-4): Top 5 upside if he can stay healthy the rest of the year 

11. Breece Hall (+5): If anyone can explain his down weeks to me, I am all ears

12. David Montgomery (+1): Splitting touches with another great RB still hasn’t kept him from a starting level in Fake Football

13. De’Von Achane (-3): Top 5 talent when he is healthy, and the team has a competent QB

14. Jordan Mason (-5): They could lose touches soon, first to an explosive rookie and CMC.

15. Brian Robinson (-3): One of the sneaky values at RB this season on an offense that has been very good so far

16. Josh Jacobs (-2): Having another solid but not spectacular Fake Football season 

17. D’Andre Swift (+7): The great news is that he has now had three great games in a row; the bad news is those might have been the three worst defenses he will face all year

18. Aaron Jones (-3): His hip injury might be worse, which might be why the team traded for Cam Akers

19. Tony Pollard (+3): Despite playing on a lousy offense, he has continued to be a solid starter in fake football

20. James Cook (-2): Will he lose touches when he returns from injury after a solid performance by the rookie? 

21. Chuba Hubbard (-1): A Blue-Collar RB in Fantasy Football

22. James Conner (-1): Played less than 30% of offensive snaps due to an injury last week

23. Chase Brown (+2): Did he play well enough last week to take more volume from Zack Moss?

24. JK Dobbins (-1): Continues to get the volume needed to be a solid Fantasy Football starter, but a dynamic rookie is waiting in the wings

25. Rhamondre Stevenson (+2): Patriots saw how much they missed him last week 

26. Isiah Pacheco (NC): Uncertain return date for this season, but a Top 10 talent when healthy

27. Travis Etienne (-8): Injuries continue to pile up for this talented RB, who has company in the backfield to fight off volume

28. Najee Harris (+4): His Superman leap for a TD last week shows that he could continue to move up the ranks in Fake Football this season

29. Tyrone Tracey (NEW): Dynamic rookie had a great game, and it’s possible the previous starter could get Wally Pipp’d

30. Zach Moss (-2): Volume split between the Bengals RBs is tough to forecast right now

Top 25 ADP RBs outside of the Top 30 include Rachaad White at 34th, Raheem Mostert at 35th, Zamir White at 53rd 

WR Position

1. Justin Jefferson (NC): Proving once again that great WRs will be great even with a change at QB and that Kirk Cousins wasn’t Joe Montana

2. Malik Nabers (NC): The Giants offense desperately needs this talented rookie back

3. Amon Ra St Brown (NC): This Lions offense might be the best in the NFC right now

4. Ja’Marr Chase (+1): The favorite target for the best QB in Fantasy Football right now

5. Cee Dee Lamb (-1): Inconsistent QB play and the lack of a complimentary running game with the Cowboys offense is holding him back right now

6. Stefon. Diggs (+1): Having two elite WRs on the same offense wasn’t holding him back, and now he is the only one healthy

7. Nico Collins (-1): Swaps positions this week with his healthier teammate 

8. Chris Godwin (NC): The best value at WR in fake football this season and it’s not even close

9. AJ Brown (+3): Returned to top form in his first week back from injury, and with the Eagle's defense weaker than in the past, he should continue to get lots of volume

10. Jayden Reed (NC): Injury cost him fake football production last week, but he should be fine going forward

11. Mike Evans (-2): He could lose some value to his talented teammate, but this offense will need to score early and often to keep the Bucs in games

12. Devonta Smith (+2): He also returned from his injury and the bye week in top form

13. DJ Moore (NC): The top target this season for a rookie QB with a live arm

14. Davante Adams (+1): Look for the miracle cure to his hamstring injury with the trade back to his favorite pro-QB

15. Garret Wilson (+4): Will adding Rodgers' favorite old WR hurt his volume going forward? 

16. Brian Thomas Jr (-5): Had an off week against a great defense last week

17. Deebo Samuel (+5): Upside is capped by having so many excellent playmakers on the same offense

18. Cooper Kupp (NC): The Rams offense anxiously awaits the return of its top two WRs

19. Tee Higgins (+1): He should be a top-10 talent in fake football next season when he is signed by a quality offense that wants to make him their guy

20. DK Metcalf (-4): The only thing that keeps DK from the Top 10 is being surrounded by two solid WRs on the same offense

21. Zay Flowers (+2): Could be an even bigger and more significant on a team that didn’t like to run as much

22. Tyreek Hill (-1): Anxiously awaiting the return of Tua to make him Fantasy Football viable again

23. Terry McLaurin (+4): The only quality WR for the best rookie QB in the league this season

24. Drake London (NC): He was redrafted as a WR1 this season, but in this offense might be a WR2 

25. Keenan Allen (+15): I had the kind of week last week I expected to see more often this season. Which WR returns after the Bye?

26. Jordan Addison (-1): This guy could be a Top 10 talent on another team

27. Jakobi Meyers (-3): The best remaining WR on the Raiders, which could be good enough to crack the Top 20 this season

28. Tyler Lockett (+6): The cagey veteran was rewarded Best Ball drafters last week

29. Michael Pittman (+6) Went from being close to the IR to having a decent game last week after finding a miracle cure for his back issue

30. Allen Lazard (+13): That Hail Mary catch elevated him to the Top 30, but the addition of his QB’s favorite old target will drop him out of the ranks soon

Top 25 ADP WRs outside of the Top 30 include Chris Olave at 33rd, Brandon Aiyuk at 34th, Marvin Harrison Jr at 38th, Puka Nacua at 42nd and Jayden Waddle at 43rd 

TE Position

1. George Kittle (NC): The best of the TEs drafted in the top 6 at the position this year

2. Brock Bowers (+1): rookie TEs had a slow start in fake football. 

3. Travis Kelce (-1): Should start living up to his back class after returning from his bye week

4. Cole Kmet (+3): I thought he was losing volume to the free agent TE the Bears signed. That’s what Fantasy Football Twitter told me

5. Trey McBride (NC): Fantasy Football Twitter also told me this TE would lose too much value by adding a rookie WR. Liars! 

6. Dallas Goedert (-2): Injury concerns for one of the best values at TE in fake football

7. Taysom Hill (+2): It’s almost impossible to rate this hybrid player using these methods

8. Jake Ferguson (NC): An excellent fantastic start to the season, considering how bad the Cowboy's offense has been in the first six weeks 

9. Isiah Likely (-3): He should continue to fall in the rankings now that his fellow TE is playing more snaps again.

10. Mark Andrews (+1): Could be back in the Top 5 in another six weeks

11. Sam LaPorta (+1): Those Fantasy Football managers who drafted him in the 2nd round didn’t expect to need a trick play to get him fake football value

12. Zach Ertz (+2): The cagey veteran has been a cheap plug-and-play starter this season

13. Dalton Kincaid (+3): Lack of consistent big plays is keeping him from the Top 5

14. Tucker Kraft (-4): There might be too many talented WRs on that Packers offense to allow Kraft to be a consistent Top 9 producer in fake football

15. Kyle Pitts (+2): Quietly having an OK fake football season 

Top 12 ADP TEs outside of the Top 15 include Evan Engram at 16th and David Njoku at 17th 

Conclusion

Each week this season, I will use my composite of four weekly values to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This research is actually a live beta test, so please remember to consider that when you use these ratings for Fantasy Football decision-making. Good luck in week seven!