Instant NFL Draft Reaction for 

Fantasy Football Round One

By @DMICMEDIA

The NFL Draft is like a chess match; getting too excited about the first move is never wise because sometimes a more complex strategy is not apparent until a few moves later. But when it comes to Fantasy Football, those first-round draft picks carry lots of weight. You expect immediate results when you spend premium draft capital on a skill position player. Today, I look at the way-too-early reaction to round one of the NFL Draft from a Fantasy Football perspective. 

Pick One Cam Ward to Tennessee 

There is absolutely no surprise to this pick. Even the worst mock drafters got this one correct. (I am one of those worst mock drafters) I like this landing position for Ward because they will likely add more pieces in this draft to help him. After all, the Titans' Defense was solid last season. They gave up too many points because of a bad field position. I would be surprised if they don’t add a WR and an RB in the next few rounds. His way too early upside MVP forecast is 60-70 points, which translates to QB13-16 as his best case this season. 

Pick Two: Travis Hunter to Jacksonville 

This draft pick was an interesting move by the Jaguars, not because of the player they chose, but the price they paid to get him.  Jacksonville is a team with quite a few needs, so giving up that much draft capital was curious because they would have received an impact player at their original drafting position. Last year, Brian Thomas Jr had an MVP Index of 105.9. It is scarce for two WRs on the same team to both exceed 90 MVP points. The Jags' defense was not good last year, so this offense will have to throw early and often to succeed. This draft pick is positive for Trevor Lawrence, but I would cap Hunter at an upside MVP forecast of 60-70, which translates to WR28-31 potential. 

Pick 6 Ashton Jeanty to Las Vegas

This selection was unsurprising, but the Raiders could trade back to gain more draft capital. Jeanty was already being taken at pick 12 in 1QB leagues, and this landing spot could even move him up a few picks earlier. The new coach gets his workhorse RB, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get 25 or more touches if this offense can move the football. The jump from college to the NFL is huge, and coming from Boise State, it’s even greater than if he played in the SEC or Big Ten. The question about the rest of the Raiders’ offense gives Jeanty a wider range of outcomes. His too-early upside MVP forecast is 90-120, translating to RB6-15 potential. 

Pick 8 Tet McMillan to Carolina

When a WR gets top 10 draft capital, you better pay attention. The Carolina Panthers had some interesting talent at WR but lacked a true star. McMillan is a playmaker and a solid red zone threat with his size. This draft move is one of the best landing positions for a WR this season. Bryce Young made huge strides last season, which helps him continue that development. How versatile McMillan can be at the NFL level is a mystery, and some have criticized his ability to win contested balls. His too-early upside MVP forecast is 80-110, translating to WR8-22 potential. 

Pick 10 Colston Loveland to Chicago

Some experts were surprised that Loveland was the first TE off the board ahead of Tyler Warren, but he is a better fit for what the Bears and their new coach plan to do on the offense. I was surprised the Bears didn’t trade back here, but they got their man. While this pick for Fantasy Football purposes has some Dalton Kincaid vibes, the fact that Ben Johnson is in charge makes me think about his value more closely. Sam LaPorta had a 64.7 MVP index as a rookie with the same coach in charge of the offense. His too-early MVP forecast is 30 to 60, translating to TE4-12 potential. 

Pick 14, Tyler Warren to Indianapolis

This pick was where I had expected Warren to go in this draft. I jokingly compared Dallas Clark because they wear the exact number, but he is the best TE the Colts have had since Clark. This choice results in a solid landing position for Warren, but the play at QB adds a wide variance of possible outcomes to his rookie season. However, this move does give Anthony Richardson another tool to continue to develop, and it’s also possible he has a short leash if he can’t improve. His too-early MVP forecast is 20-70, equating to TE3-15 potential. 

Pick 19 Emeka Egbuka to Tampa Bay

Ohio State has been producing some very good WRs over the past decade, and at one point, some experts thought Egbuka might be the best of the recent crop of great players. The last two seasons, we have seen what happens when a great rookie WR prospect lands on a team with existing talent. Two years ago, it hampered Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Football value, and last year, it happened to Rome Odunze. When healthy, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can be over 100 in MVP Index points. This selection makes me question Godwin’s health, but it makes me believe more in Baker Mayfield. Egbuka’s way-too-early MVP forecast is 40-90, which translates to WR15-42 potential. 

Pick 22 Omarion Hampton to the Los Angeles Chargers

There was no debate among the experts about who the top RB was in this draft, but there was a lot of disagreement about the second-best RB in this class. The Chargers added Najee Harris and have last year’s value pick, rookie Kimani Vidal, but now they have the type of RB the coach wants to build an offense around. This pick “kills” Harris’ sleeper pick value but helps this offense improve, if they can add some help at WR and maybe TE later in the draft. Hampton’s footwork concerned me, but there is no doubt he is a productive RB who knows his way to the endzone. His too-early upside MVP forecast is 70-110, which translates to RB8-23 potential. 

Pick 23, Matthew Golden to Green Bay

If they had passed on a WR in the first round, the draft's location in Green Bay might have caused a riot. Golden bragged that he would blow away the 40-yard dash record at the NFL Combine, but he didn’t come close. This man is super-fast and has great football game speed, too. The Packers’ roster is full of good WRs, but lacks that true alpha. Golden isn’t just fast; he is sneaky quick and already has a solid route tree. This pick gives me Brian Thomas Jr vibes, but there is a wide range of outcomes for Golden on the Green and Gold. His too-early upside MVP forecast is 60 to 110, translating to WR8-31 potential. 

Pick 25 Jaxon Dart to the New York Giants

The Steelers might draft Dart as their QB of the present, but they passed on him and all the rookie QB class in the first round. Meanwhile, the Giants signed two veterans at QB but traded back up to get Dart with pick 25. I am surprised they gave up so much to get him, but if they could harness his raw talent, they could have found their future QB. Whether that future is next season or week one of this year is still doubtful. His way too early upside MVP forecast if he starts 10 games is 20-70, which translates to QB13-25. 

Conclusion

Only 10 skill position players were taken with the first 32 picks, so that teams will look a lot different after the next two days of the draft. The experts expected more RBs to be taken in the first round, but only two were drafted compared to 4 WRs. This pick ratio is something I expected because there is a large second tier of RBs after Jeanty, while at WR, the drop off could be more substantial after the top several. 

The QB total of two and the TE total of two are also close to expectations. In Fantasy Football, a player's actual value is as dependent on their ADP as their expected results. All these rookies taken in the first round could significantly impact Fantasy Football success this season. Still, the wide variances typical of rookies require the right ADP to make them a value pick.