Great Expectations 

Every season in fantasy football, we are enamored by shiny new things. We put our faith in unproven rookies rather than depend on good, reliable old veteran players. You can benefit from this infatuation with rookies as a smart Fantasy Football player who applies the scientific method to your analysis. It was the best and worst of times; no, that’s the wrong Dickens novel. Today, we analyze the past to understand the right level of great expectations for a typical rookie class. 

Methodology of Study

In any scientifically based study for Fantast Football, we need to have the right timeframe for the study. There need to be enough data points to make the study meaningful, but not such a long time frame to be a good representation of what we can expect in the upcoming season. The NFL game evolves quickly, driven by salary cap decisions and many other things. The goal was to keep this study simple by looking at the last ten years of rookie performance in their first year in Fantasy Football. I chose to look at Total Points and Points per Game for this study, even while understanding their limitations in showing actual weekly value in fake football. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window.  

Looking Back to the 2024 Draft

The first rookie off the board last season was Marvin Harrison Jr, who went at pick 16 as the WR9 in the draft, according to consensus PPR draft data from Fantasy Pros. The first quarterback taken was Jayden Daniels, who was selected as the QB12 at pick 102. Three QBs were selected in the Top 24 at QB, with Caleb Williams at QB13 and Bo Nix at QB23 to go with Daniels.  It ended up being a solid year for rookie QBs last season, with Jayden Daniels finishing at QB5 in total points and QB6 in PPG. Two rookie QBs hit the Top 12 in Total Points with three in the Top 12 in PPG. Four rookie QBs would hit the Top 24 in Total Points and PPG. Jayden Daniels' MVP Index, a measure of weekly value, was QB4 last season. Bo Nix finished at 82.4 for QB11. Drake Maye had an MVP Index of 60 for QB15 level, and the last rookie to make the Top 24 was Caleb Williams, posting a 41.2 for QB22.  

The first RB selected was Jonathon Brooks as the RB35 at pick 97, and he was the only RB taken in the Top 36. The best rookie RB was Bucky Irving, who finished 14th in total PPR points and 20th in PPG. He was the only RB to crack the Top 24 last season by either measure, with only two rookies finishing in the Top 36 in Total Points or PPG. The top drafted rookie RB Brooks only played in three games with 12 touches for his first year. Bucky Irving was the leader in MVP Index for the rookie class with a rating of 100 for RB13. Tyrone Tracy was the only rookie to finish in the Top 36 with a 61.5 for RB27. 

Six wide receivers were taken in the Top 45 at WR last season, but Malik Nabers at WR24 was the only other rookie selected in the Top 36. The top-performing rookies at WR in the previous season were Brian Thomas Jr, who was 5th in Total points, followed by Malik Nabers at 6th and Ladd McConkey at 14th. Nabers was the top-rated WR in PPG at 7th, with Thomas Jr at 14th and McConkey at 19th. Those were the only three rookie WRs to finish in the Top 30 in Total Points or PPG. The Top-Rated rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr finished 30th in Total Points and 42nd in PPG. Malik Nabers was the top-rated rookie in the MVP Index, finishing with 126.7 for WR5. Brian Thomas Jr was close behind at 105.9, which was suitable for WR10. Ladd McConkey had an impressive MVP rating of 93.3 for WR14. The last rookie to make the Top 36 was Xavier Worthy at 56.3 for WR34. Marvin Harrison Jr was a disappointing 50 for WR38. Jalen McMillan was the last rookie to hit the Top 50 with 33.3 for WR48. 

The top TE selected was Brock Bowers as the TE11 at pick 95. Brooks was the only RB selected in the Top 36 at RB. Brock Bowers was the only TE chosen in the Top 24 position. The Top-rated TE Brock Bowers was the only rookie TE to finish in the Top 24 in either Total Points or PPG, finishing 1st in Total Points and 3rd in PPG. Brock Bowers was the only rookie TE with a positive MVP Index of 94.1, which was suitable for TE4. 

Ten-Year Median Performance

It’s essential to understand how the typical draft class of rookies performs at a position to know if our expectations for the upcoming rookie class are sensible. While one rookie class might be much better or worse than the median, studying the highs and lows over those ten years gives us a good prediction of possible outcomes. 

Over the past 10 seasons combined, the median number of rookie QBs that finished in the Top 6 in total points or PPG was zero, with a high of just 1. In a typical rookie class of QBs, only one finished in the Top 12 with a low of 0 and a high of 2 in total points, while in PPG, there was a low of 0 and a high of 3. The ten-year median for finishing in the Top 24 in total points or PPG was 2, with a low of 0 and a high of 4. Last season, we had 1 QB in the Top 6 in total points with 2 in the Top 12 and 4 in the Top 24, all exceeding the ten-year median. 

The rookie RB class usually does better than the QB class based on the last 10 seasons. The median for Top 6 is 0.5 with 1.5 in the Top 12, 2.5 in the Top 24, and 4.5 in the Top 36 in Total Points. The PPG median is 1 for Top 6 and Top 12, with 3 in the Top 24 and 4 in the Top 36. The ranges in both total points and PPG are a low of 0 and a high of 2 in the Top 6, a low of 0 and a high of 4 in the Top 12, and a low of 1 and a high of 5 in the Top 24. The Top 36 in Total Points has a range of a low of 2 and a high of 7, while in PPG, that range is a low of 2 and a high of 9. Last season’s rookie class of running backs was under the median at each level. 

The rookie WR class also outperformed the median at each grading level with two players in the Top 6, 3 in the Top 12, and 5 in the Top 36 in Total Points. This compares to a median of 0 for the Top 6 with a low of 0 and a high of 2, a median of 0.5 for the Top 12 with a low of 0 and a high of 3, and a median of 3.5 for the Top 36 with a low of 1 and a high of 5. Last season’s rookie class hit the high at each level. Measuring the previous year’s class by PPG, they also exceeded the median from WR9 to WR36 and were equal to the 10-year median at WR39 to WR45. This result compares to a median of 0 at WR9 with a low of 0 and a high of 1, 1 at WR24 with a low of 0 and a high of 3, and 2.5 at WR36 with a low of 1 and a high of 6. 

Last year’s rookie class at TE for Fantasy Football was a class of one. Brock Bowers finished Top 3 in both total points and PPG and was the only TE in the Top 24 from last year’s rookie class. This was the second year in a row that a rookie TE placed in the Top 3 in Total Points and the Top 6 in PPG. Four of the five rookie TEs to finish in the Top 12 in Total Points hit the Top 6 over the past ten seasons, with three of the five TEs to finish in the Top 12 in PPG hit the Top 6. Three of those top 6 finishes in total points have occurred in the last 4 seasons, with two of those three also finishing top 6 in PPG. 

Conclusion

It’s important not to have great expectations every season with the rookies but instead have a reasonable expectation based on the past performance of other rookie classes. While each class is different and has a different positional strength, it doesn’t make logical sense to expect this year’s rookie class to exceed the high at any position or the median at all positions.

The way too early ADP at Fantasy Pros for the platforms currently holding Best Ball drafts shows zero QBs in the Top 24, with Cam Ward being picked at QB28, Shadeur Sanders at QB31, and Jaxson Dart at QB34. Fantasy Football players might be a bit conservative since there has been a median of one QB hitting the Top 12 over the past 10 seasons. Perhaps this shows no consensus on which rookie might be the best in Fake Football. 

Six RBs are being taken in the Top 36, with Ashton Jeanty on top at RB4 and Omarion Hampton at RB15. Fantasy Football managers see this rookie class as one of the deepest in years, and while the expectations exceed the 10-year median, they do not exceed the top level at any scoring level. 

The WR class is being ignored right now with zero taken in the Top 30 and only two taken in the Top 45 based on the early ADP. This is well below the 10-year median in total points and PPG, which shows there might be some value propositions in this rookie WR class. 

The early ADP at TE shows two rookies off the board by the 14th pick, with Tyler Warren at TE9 and Colston Loveland at TE14. Placing two rookies in the Top 15 in total points would equal the 10-year high in both total points and PPG, showing that Fantasy Football managers might be a little aggressive with the rookie class so far this year.