Rookie QB Expectations Pre-Draft 2025

The leap from college to the pros is giant. Most college QBs fail when they try to reach the next level. Handicapping the chances of the top rookie QBs is very difficult, especially before the NFL Draft. This year, the Professor has challenged me to put my handicapping skills to the test by setting the Morning Line Odds for each player, showing how many dollars from a fictitious $100 bank roll I am willing to wager on each player to be the top scorer in Fantasy Football among this rookie class at QB. In addition, I will show the forecast of my percentage chances of each player finishing at various levels in Fantasy Football scoring this season. Here are my pre-NFL draft expectations for the rookie QB class. 

Definitions

Top Scorer at Position Among Rookies- While weekly values are more critical in Fantasy Football success, for this experiment, I am attempting to forecast which rookie player has the most total points for the 2025 season at each position. 

Top 12, 18, or 24: Total Fantasy Football points will also be used for each level for the 2025 season. 

FIELD- Indicates all players at the position other than those mentioned directly in the article. 

Historic Values

Before preparing a forecast, we must understand the possible outcomes for rookies at the QB position based on the most recent 10 seasons. 

Conclusion

Cam Ward has the best chance to be the top-scoring rookie at QB for the 2025 season. His forecasted finishing position in total points is not expected to make the Top 12 this season. In four of the last ten seasons, we have not seen a rookie quarterback hit the top 12 in fantasy football points, but last season, we saw two players reach that level. It’s a virtual toss-up between Shadeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart for finishing second overall, with each player having nearly identical odds to hit the Top 24 in total fantasy football points for the 2025 season. 

I expect two rookie QBs to hit the Top 24 level this season, equaling the median over the last ten seasons. It’s too close to calling before the NFL Draft whether Sanders or Dart would be the better bet to reach that level. Dart has more upside because of his rushing potential, but either QB may fail to start in week one. The best-case scenario for Top 24 finishes among rookies is 3, which would be slightly above the ten-year median but lower than last year’s total.