Consensus Weekly Value Metric for the 2024 Season 

Anyone who has listened to the professor and me on our podcast knows that many of my forecasting concepts from fantasy football came from my past work of handicapping horse races and forecasting the weather. In weather forecasting, combining several key ingredients that make up the weather to form an “Index” is very successful. In horse races, handicapping combining class, recent form, and speed into a rating system helped me better under the landscape of each race. This year, I introduced a new in-season metric combining four different ratings to create a consensus rating every week. Let’s look at the consensus rating for the final time this season with comparisons to consensus ADP. (Fantasy Pros).

Methodology

Too often in fantasy football, we usually chase last week’s points to make decisions about the next few weeks. Each data point changes our mind, and we are left without a coherent way to factor the new data in with the old. I am experimenting with a new consensus value metric for Fantasy Football this year. The first data point is my BEST Index for 2024. The second ingredient is my Weekly Value index, weighted a little more for 2024 each week. The third ingredient is my MVP Index, which adds 2024 data to the last two seasons' data, which shows upside consistency. The final piece of the puzzle is the MVP24 Rating for just this season. The goal is to factor in 2024 a little more weekly while using the past data, which shows potential back class for each player in Fantasy Football.

QB Position

1. Lamar Jackson (+3): It has been determined that the only fair way to decide the league MVP is to award the award to the quarterback who loses to Mahomes in the AFC Championship.

2. Joe Burrow (+5) Might have been the true MVP in the league trying to make up for a lousy defense all season.

3. Josh Allen (-2) Had four full games played with lower scores than Lamar’s worst game.

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4. Jayden Daniels (+8) is One of only two genuine contenders for the Rookie of the Year award. 

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5. Jalen Hurts (-2) It was a down year for Hurts even without a drop in Tush Push Percentage.

6. Jared Goff (+9) Only having three games played outdoors all season helped his fantasy numbers.

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7. Patrick Mahomes (--5) Will the offense make a statement in the playoffs and move his Fantasy Football stock back up too high next year? 

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8. Baker Mayfield (+13) The absolute best draft value in Fantasy Football at the QB position this season

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9. Bo Nix (+14) Rookie had to perform when the rushing game went AWOL

10. Brock Purdy (+1) In Fake Football, as in real football, it appears QB10 might be his upside

11. Sam Darnold (+20): An early exit from the playoffs would have Vikings fans demanding his exile

12. Tua Tagovailoa (+2) Dolphins’ offense was pitiful without him at QB this season

13. Jameis Winson (NA) Might be the best example of the difference in QB quality between real and fake football 

14. Jordan Love (-5): Did we see teams figure out this offense, or was the rushing game so great that Love didn’t need to be as good this season? 

15. Kyler Murray (-7) One of the toughest QBs to predict for next season 

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16. Justin Herbert's (+1) Passing Offense turned it on later in the season. Was this because they lost Dobbins or a sign of things you can expect in the future from the Chargers? 

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17. Geno Smith's (+7) Contract should protect him for at least one more QB2 Superflex value season.

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18. Russel Wilson (+8) Father Time seems to be catching up with him in a hurry 

19. Dak Prescott (-9) Hoping the Fantasy Football world gives up on him so I can get him cheaper next season 

20. Justin Fields (+7) Another QB who shows the vast disparity between Fantasy Football and real football value 

21. Caleb Williams (-8) Five games 10 points over median and seven games 10 points under median as a rookie

22. Anthony Richardson (-16): Maybe the critics were right about his throwing ability 

23. Aaron Rodgers (-5) Father Time sacked him early and often this season 

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24. Kirk Cousins (-5) Somebody will take a chance on trading for Captain Kirk 

25. Joe Flacco (NA) When a veteran backup hits the Top 25, you know the talent is thin at QB now

Top 10 ADP QBs outside the Top 25: CJ Stroud, ADP QB6, finished QB26.

RB Position

Jahmyr Gibbs (+5): My weekly value data likely projects him as my RB1 in Fake Football.

Bijan Robinson (+1) If Penix gets better next season, we could see some insane numbers. 

Derrick Henry (+6) Father Time will eventually catch up with him, but not yet. 

De’Von Achane (+7): His splits with and without Tua at QB were stunning 

Saquon Barkley (-1) Finished almost precisely where the consensus expected him to finish

Josh Jacobs (+4) Led to GB passing 9% less often this season 

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Kyren Williams (+1): Next season is when I might start worrying about a volume drop.

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Alvin Kamara (+9) Produced excellent results on an offense that fell apart with injuries.

Chase Brown (+27), Dynamic RB, was ignored in favor of signing a career journeyman.

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Joe Mixon (+5) Fell off big time towards the end of the season 

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James Conner (+7) Was once again one of the best values at the RB position this season.

Jonathon Taylor (-7) MVP of the Fake Football Playoffs for the second year in a row

Breece Hall (-11) Had a fantastic season when you consider how inconsistent the Jets were

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Kenneth Walker (+2) Could lose volume next season 

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David Montgomery (+6): Will the Lions keep him for one more season? 

James Cook (-3) Got targeted 16 fewer times in a year where the Bills struggled to find WRs to target

Bucky Irving (+36) A very dynamic player who should be a Top 10 RB next season 

Aaron Jones (+1): I expect the Vikings to add some young talent at the RB position next season 

Chuba Hubbard (+24) Was the best value for your RB2 this year, but will the rookie cut into his volume next season? 

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Christian McCaffrey (-19) Will be one of the big mysteries for the 2025 season. 

Austin Ekeler (+12) Back Class keeps him close to the top 20

Najee Harris (+2) Lost volume to Warren at times, which killed his consistency

Rachaad White (-9) Could be a nice 1-2 punch with Bucky next season 

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D’Andre Swift (-4) If the Bears’ offense improves, I could be suckered into believing in him again

Rhamondre Stevenson (-2) Will have his third coach in three years, which adds to the uncertainty.

Tony Pollard (0) Could be a nice value pick next year if that offense improves. 

JK Dobbins (+14) When healthy, he showed Top 10 upside

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Brian Robinson (+1) Ball security in real football hurt his fake football value down the stretch.

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Travis Etienne (-22) Without Trevor Lawrence at QB, he was a flex starter at best. 

Rico Dowdle (+15): Cowboys will add talent at the RB position next season 

Jordan Mason (NA) Had some great weeks as the backup to CMC 

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Zach Charbonnet (+14) Could move up the rankings with more volume

Tyrone Tracy (NA): Solid rookie season on an awful offense, but not sure he is a 3-down back

Isaac Guerendo (NA) If CMC is finished, this could be the next dynamic RB in that 49ers’ offense

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Nick Chubb (-4) Didn’t look like the same player this season, but another year away from the injury might help.

Kareem Hunt (NA) Had a great run subbing for Pacheco

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Ray Davis (NA) Stuck behind a better RB on the depth chart 

Jerome Ford (-4) Showed some pop at times

Tank Bigsby (NA) Might be the better all-around RB in JAX

Zach Moss (-12) Was losing his job to Chase Brown before the injury.

Top 20 ADP RBs outside of the Top 40: NONE.

WR Position

Ja’Marr Chase (+4): If the Bengal's defense improves next season, that could limit his upside

Justin Jefferson (+2): The Vikings didn’t need to score 35 to win every week this season. 

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Amon Ra St Brown (0) One of many fabulous weapons on the Lions’ offense

Malik Nabers (+20): Amazing rookie season with the disfunction at QB for the Giants

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Cee Dee Lamb (-3) Played through an injury that most WRs would have quit on much faster.

AJ Brown (0) Big play WR on a team that scores lots of points is a nice WR to target

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Puka Nacua (+1) Only an injury kept him from the Top 4 this season 

Mike Evans (+8) Eleven straight seasons over 1000 yards is a big deal when you see how rare that is done in the NFL 

Brian Thomas Jr (+40): Another fantastic rookie season on a team that was a complete mess

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Davante Adams (+2) Father Time will eventually catch up with him 

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Nico Collins (+2): Can Stroud rebound from his Sophomore Slump? 

DJ Moore (+7) If the Bears’ offense figures out how to use Caleb, DJ could be top 5

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Tyreek Hill (-12): Where will he end up next season and how that affects his fake football value is a vast mystery right now

DeVonta Smith (+8): Lots of weapons on the Eagle's offense keep him from the Top 10

Chris Godwin (+20) Was on pace for a Top 3 season in Fake Football before the injury.

Terry McLaurin (+15): The rookie QB made him Scary again

Cooper Kupp (0) Father Time is catching up with him 

Tee Higgins (+9) Where he ends up next season could be the difference in about 10-15 places in his pre-season ranking 

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Stephon Diggs (+2) was off to a great start before the injury, but how many great seasons has he left? 

Garret Wilson (-13): Have we thought that Top 15 is his upside? 

Ladd McConkey (+23) is a dynamic playmaker in the slot, but will the Chargers pass as much in the future if they get a dynamic RB in the lineup? 

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Keenan Allen (+14) Father Time is starting to affect his consistency 

Drake London (-12) Showed real chemistry with Penix down the stretch 

Jakobi Meyers (+30): How this guy got ignored in Fake Football drafts last year is a mystery

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Courtland Sutton's (+18) Broncos rushing game was so bad that he emerged as a solid threat.

Jerry Jeudy (+30): Browns' players' future is a complete mystery.

Jaxon Smith Njigba (+15) Could emerge as a Top 10 value at WR next season 

Zay Flowers (+1) If the team threw the ball more, then he would have Top 10 upside

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Jordan Addison (+19) Teams tried to stop J-Jeff, only to discover the Vikings had another weapon. 

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Rashee Rice (0) Was on pace for a Top 10 season until he got hurt in game five.

DK Metcalf (-13) lost volume to JSN but also played severely most of the season. 

Calvin Ridley (+2) Uncertainty abounds for all Titans for next season. 

Jameson Williams (+12) Finally emerged as the player the Lions drafted in the first round.

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Deebo Samuels (-24) was wildly inconsistent in a situation primed for him to do well.

Adam Thielen (+28): Cagey, an old veteran, probably has another solid season in him.

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Jayden Reed (-3) Started fast, but his usage dropped, and so did his weekly value.

Jauan Jennings (NA) Started to lose volume to Pearsall down the stretch. 

Xavier Worthy (-1) Had an excellent Fake Football playoffs.

Josh Downs (+29) Emerged as the best WR on the Colts.

Khalil Shakir (+11) Might lack the consistency needed to be a true Alpha WR in the NFL.

The top 20 ADP WRs outside the Top 40 include Chris Olave at 44th.

TE Position

George Kittle (+5) Top TE in Fake Football this season 

Brock Bowers's (+9) Record-breaking rookie season makes him Dynasty TE1.

Travis Kelce (-2) His Back Class moved him up to TE3 from TE5 for only the 2024 season.

Trey McBride (0) Positive TD regression next season makes him TE in Dynasty.

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Mark Andrews (-2) had a Slow start to the season but ended like his usual self.

David Njoku (+4) Injuries were the only thing slowing him down this year.

Johnu Smith (+33) is the best value pick in fake football for this year's TE position.

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Sam LaPorta (-6): There are too many weapons on the Lions for their TE to consistently be Top-tier.

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Zach Ertz (+13): Cagey, an old veteran, probably has more tread left on the tires.

Dallas Goedert (+2): Too many weapons on the Eagles to expect much more from him.

Evan Engram (-3) Not sure of the future for him.

TJ Hockenson (+28) Another year back from that injury should put him in the Top 5 next season.

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Taysom Hill's (+8) Hybrid player’s future is very uncertain after a nasty injury.

Tucker Kraft (+23) If the Packers passed more, he might be a Top 7 value.

Pat Freimuth (+1): The offense, not his ability, is holding him back. 

Cade Otton (+7) Had a strong run when Godwin went out.

Mike Gesecki (+13) Lacks the consistency to be ranked much higher.

If the offense improves next year, Hunter Henry (+1) might be a value pick.

13. Cole Kmet (-4) Might be a Best Ball TE only. 

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20. Tyler Conklin (0) Someone had to make the Top 20. 

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Top 10 ADP TEs outside of the Top 20: NONE.

Conclusion

I used my composite of four weekly values each week this season to develop a real-time ranking system for fantasy football. This research is a live Beta Test but showed promising results in year one. I hope you enjoyed this report every week during the 2024 season.