MVP Defenses

Will MVP Index Work for Team Defense in Fantasy Football?

The MVP Index has been proven to be an effective tool for rating players in Fantasy Football. It’s just another way to measure consistency; when you measure consistency correctly, it can be a great tool in Fake Football. The key is measuring performance against a historical median and grading every player versus that metric. It’s even easier with Team Defense because they “start” every game, so we don’t have to establish a “Full Game” concept as we do for individual players. Let’s use the MVP Index concept for Team Defense in Fantasy Football. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low-points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index.

Historic Medians for Team Defense

The previous two seasons' worth of data for Team Defense was calculated using the most accepted standard scoring rules used by the Sleeper Fantasy Football application for leagues such as “Draft Night Out” as a base calculation for this study. Here are the scoring rules so you can compare them to your league. 

1. Scoring TD 6 pts

2. Sacks 1 Pt

3. INT or Fumble Recovery 2 pts

4. Forced Fumble 1pt

5. 0 Points Allowed 10 pts

6. 1-6 Points Allowed 7 pts

7. 7-13 Points Allowed 4 pts

8. 14-20 Points Allowed 1 Pt

9. 21-27 Points Allowed 0pt

10. 28-34 Points Allowed -1 Pt

11. More than 35 Points Allowed -4 Pts

Using the last two seasons of NFL play, I calculated a historical mean of 7.097 points per game. This allowed me to establish a baseline for the three levels of performance that would be used to calculate each team's MVP Index over the past two seasons. 

2024 Team Defense by MVP Index

1. Denver 111.8

2. Minnesota 105.9

3. Green Bay 100

4. Seattle 100

5. Baltimore 94.1

6. Pittsburgh 94.1

7. Philadelphia 94.1

8. Detroit 94.1

9. Chicago 88.2

10. LA Chargers 82.4

11. Buffalo 82.4

12. Houston 82.4

13. Kansas City 76.5

14. Dallas 76.5

15. Tampa Bay 76.5

16. Washington 70.6

17. Indianapolis 64.7

18. LA Rams 64.7

19. Cincinnati 58.8

20. NY Giants 58.8

21. New Orleans 58.8

22. NY Jets 52.9

23. Arizona 52.9

24. Miami 47.1

25. Cleveland 47.1

26. Atlanta 47.1

27. Tennessee 41.2

28. Las Vegas 35.3

29. New England 35.3

30. San Francisco 35.3

31. Jacksonville 23.5

32. Carolina 17.6

2023 Team Defense by MVP Index

1. Baltimore 123.5

2. Kansas City 100

3. Buffalo 100

4. Cleveland 100

5. Dallas 94.1

6. Tampa Bay 94.1

7. NY Jets 94.1

8. New Orleans 88.2

9. Minnesota 88.2

10. Miami 88.2

11. New England 88.2

12. Cincinnati 88.2

13. San Francisco 88.2

14. Las Vegas 82.4

15. Pittsburgh 82.4

16. Houston 82.4

17. Indianapolis 82.4

18. Chicago 82.4

19. Green Bay 76.5

20. Denver 76.5

21. Philadelphia 70.6

22. Seattle 70.6

23. Jacksonville 70.6

24. Tennessee 70.6

25. LA Chargers 64.7

26. NY Giants 64.7

27. Detroit 64.7

28. LA Rams 64.7

29. Atlanta 52.9

30. Carolina 35.3

31. Arizona 29.4

32. Washington 23.5

Conclusion

Only two teams had ZERO change in their Team Def MVP from 2023 to 2024, with only 13 teams within 20 points plus or minus from the previous season. Nine teams had a change over 30 points, plus or minus their last season. Only six teams that exceeded 80 points in the MVP Index in 2024 also exceeded 80 points the previous season. While there is a significant difference each season in Team Defense Consistency, as shown by the MVP Index, the erratic changes from one season to the next give me weak confidence that we can correctly forecast the expected top Team Defenses from year to year using the MVP Index.